Give Sam P. a chance

[Sports Guy]

Why don't you tell us what DIPS is an acronym for then.

defensive independant pitching stat

[Moose Milligan]

It was vice versa.

Hahaha, yeah, well....I don't think either would be hurting if they flipped it

[davearm]

defensive independant pitching stat

Right.

And if it's defense-independent, then why (and how), exactly, would we need to adjust for defense? By definition, defense has already been factored out.

A guy's DIPS ERA will be the same no matter if he's got a whole team of gold glovers behind him, or a whole team of Aubrey Huff's behind him. Therefore your comment that Trax's DIPS would have been higher if he had had the O's defense behind him demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of the entire concept.

[Fairfax Bird]

defensive independant pitching stat

This may be a dumb question, but if the stat is defensive independent then why do you keep referencing the Mets better defense as a reason that Trax will be worse this year as an Oriole. I mean I know the league switch and ball-park factors and that makes sense, but the stat is defensive independent.

Is it your contention that some balls that were outs for New York will be hits in Baltimore?

[El Gordo]

Yeah I got you the first time.

Benson's better than Trax because your crystal ball says so.

And out of curiosity, why would you adjust DIPS for defense? Or how, for that matter?

Good question. If DIPS is defense independent pithing statsitstics why would you have to adjust for defense?

[Sports Guy]

Right.

And if it's defense-independent, then why (and how), exactly, would we need to adjust for defense? By definition, defense has already been factored out.

A guy's DIPS ERA will be the same no matter if he's got a whole team of gold glovers behind him, or a whole team of Aubrey Huff's behind him. Therefore your comment that Trax's DIPS would have been higher if he had had the O's defense behind him demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of the entire concept.

I had thought that part of the equation was runs allowed but i just read that its not.

However, the idea of being in the AL and being in a more hitter friendly park would have killed Trax even last year.

I am not sure what PECOTA said about these guys but my guess is they figure Trax to be worse.

Trax had a worse command rate and K rate last year(although that was by the slightest of margins). Benson did have a worse HR rate but again, Trax was in the pathetic NL and in a great pitchers park.

For comparison's sake....In 2005, Benson was in Shea and in the NL...His HR rate was nearly identical to Trax last year and he had a much better command rate and K rate.

So, all of Trax's numbers figure to be much worse in the AL this year and he is extremely likely to be worse than Benson.

Denying that is ignoring the numbers.

[Fairfax Bird]

Trax was in the pathetic NL and in a great pitchers park.

Yeah those guys in the NL suck.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, Trax's own team, the Mets, were in the top 4 in most major offensive categories last year. So, Trax was lucky to not have to face that offense.

[Fairfax Bird]

BTW, Trax's own team, the Mets, were in the top 4 in most major offensive categories last year. So, Trax was lucky to not have to face that offense.

He actually did. He went 2-1 with a 5.90 ERA, but his DIPS was 6.30. DIPS would have been better but his defense failed him. Just teasing.

[davearm]

I had thought that part of the equation was runs allowed but i just read that its not.

However, the idea of being in the AL and being in a more hitter friendly park would have killed Trax even last year.

I am not sure what PECOTA said about these guys but my guess is they figure Trax to be worse.

Trax had a worse command rate and K rate last year(although that was by the slightest of margins). Benson did have a worse HR rate but again, Trax was in the pathetic NL and in a great pitchers park.

For comparison's sake....In 2005, Benson was in Shea and in the NL...His HR rate was nearly identical to Trax last year and he had a much better command rate and K rate.

So, all of Trax's numbers figure to be much worse in the AL this year and he is extremely likely to be worse than Benson.

Denying that is ignoring the numbers.

And here are the numbers you're ignoring.

Over the past 5 seasons, Trachsel shows an ERA+ of around 106. Benson shows an ERA+ of around 95.

The bottom line is that Trachsel has given up earned runs at a significantly better rate than Benson. And that's on a park- and league-adjusted basis. So there go your "Trax's numbers figure to be much worse in the AL" and "Trax was in the pathetic NL and in a great pitchers park" arguments.

Would you like to make the argument that the large discrepancy is explained away by defense? Good luck with that.

[Sports Guy]

And here are the numbers you're ignoring.

Over the past 5 seasons, Trachsel shows an ERA+ of around 106. Benson shows an ERA+ of around 95.

The bottom line is that Trachsel has given up earned runs at a significantly better rate than Benson. And that's on a park- and league-adjusted basis. So there go your "Trax's numbers figure to be much worse in the AL" and "Trax was in the pathetic NL and in a great pitchers park" arguments.

Would you like to make the argument that the large discrepancy is explained away by defense? Good luck with that.

I am not 100% sure how they calculate ERA+ but i am pretty sure they at least use ERA as a starting point..Is that correct or not?(i have never looked into ERA+)

If i am right about that, then this is where defense can come into play.

I am also not sure but does ERA+ take into account what a player would do in the AL from the NL?

In other words, is the roughly .50 run in ERA difference calculated in that?

And then, on top of all of that, i would also assume that ERA+ is not a good future indicator of what someone will do, as opposed to DIPS, k rate, command rate and HR rate.

Also, i am not denying that Trax didn't have good years as of late because he really did....Pretty much every year this decade, his actual ERA has way outperformed his DIPS.

However, he wasn't in the AL and he wasn't 36 then either....The peripheral stats that you are ignoring and his age are much more important at the point in his career than what is ERA+ has been the last 5 years.

I know you don't care about age and think it is meaningless but you are just wrong there.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, Benson had the better ERA+ last year.

[Frobby]

And here are the numbers you're ignoring.

Over the past 5 seasons, Trachsel shows an ERA+ of around 106. Benson shows an ERA+ of around 95.

The bottom line is that Trachsel has given up earned runs at a significantly better rate than Benson. And that's on a park- and league-adjusted basis. So there go your "Trax's numbers figure to be much worse in the AL" and "Trax was in the pathetic NL and in a great pitchers park" arguments.

I think the real question is whether to judge Tachsel on the last 5 years, or whether to put more emphasis on last year. He was hurt in 2005 and then came back at age 36 in 2006 and wasn't as effective as before. So 2002-05 may have very limited relevance. Or, on the other hand, it could be that last year was the first year back from surgery and Trax will revert to closer to his five-year norm now. I think we just have to wait it out.

[davearm]

I am not 100% sure how they calculate ERA+ but i am pretty sure they at least use ERA as a starting point..Is that correct or not?(i have never looked into ERA+)

If i am right about that, then this is where defense can come into play.

I am also not sure but does ERA+ take into account what a player would do in the AL from the NL?

In other words, is the roughly .50 run in ERA difference calculated in that?

And then, on top of all of that, i would also assume that ERA+ is not a good future indicator of what someone will do, as opposed to DIPS, k rate, command rate and HR rate.

Also, i am not denying that Trax didn't have good years as of late because he really did....Pretty much every year this decade, his actual ERA has way outperformed his DIPS.

However, he wasn't in the AL and he wasn't 36 then either....The peripheral stats that you are ignoring and his age are much more important at the point in his career than what is ERA+ has been the last 5 years.

I know you don't care about age and think it is meaningless but you are just wrong there.

ERA+ is park-adjusted, and effectively league-adjusted too. A 100 in the NL is equivalent to a 100 in the AL, with the exception that it's not defense-independent.

Age is largely irrelevant to this discussion -- not totally irrelevant, but it's only a minor consideration. We're only talking about one year here, not who you'd rather have for the next 5 years or whatever. Age-related decline should impact Trachsel more than Benson, but again, in just one year, the effect is likely to be small.

[Sports Guy]

ERA+ is park-adjusted, and effectively league-adjusted too. A 100 in the NL is equivalent to a 100 in the AL, with the exception that it's not defense-independent.

Age is largely irrelevant to this discussion -- not totally irrelevant, but it's only a minor consideration. We're only talking about one year here, not who you'd rather have for the next 5 years or whatever. Age-related decline should impact Trachsel more than Benson, but again, in just one year, the effect is likely to be small.

So, what ERA do you think Trax ends up with this year, as an Oriole?