Assuming a relatively flat budget, do the O's have a realistic chance to contend in 2016?

[crawjo]

Lots of ruined/underachieving prospects to look forward to then. I really hope I live to be 115 so I can see us win it all.

Well, for the last 32 years no strategy has worked for building a championship team, so we might as well just throw in the towel on the entire franchise.

[Can_of_corn]

I'm going to tape this post under a picture of Our Lord and thank Him every night that we only have to endure two more seasons of Dan Duquette and his fetish for signing mediocre Asian talent.

Like Chen?

[Aristotelian]

No that hard. Sign Leake to a back loaded contract so you are only paying him 12 M this year. Sign Span for 8M, non tender Matusz and sign Kim. In addition you could trade Britton for another bat. That's the 22M to take us to 120M

I disagree that that would be enough, but appreciate the effort to come up with a plan. Leake is a downgrade from Chen, and our pitching didn't get us close even with Chen, and with the rest you are still only replacing a small portion of Davis, O'Day, and now Britton.

Personally, if I trade Britton, it would be for an AJ Reed type of player that could potentially help us long term. If that is the type of bat you are talking about, then I would be on board. I am not against spending money or trying to field a competitive team, I just don't want to do anything that would hurt us long term.

[weams]

We'd be crazy to non-tender. I can't believe you are even suggesting that possibility.

I agree. I think we will probable trade him or keep him.

[Can_of_corn]

Which Chen is that? The one who mysteriously didn't pitch against Toronto this year? Or the one who consistently had trouble keeping the ball in the park? Was he our staff ace?

The one that is going to make over 20 million AAV on his next contract.

[El Gordo]

I disagree that that would be enough, but appreciate the effort to come up with a plan. Leake is a downgrade from Chen, and our pitching didn't get us close even with Chen, and with the rest you are still only replacing a small portion of Davis, O'Day, and now Britton.

Personally, if I trade Britton, it would be for an AJ Reed type of player that could potentially help us long term. If that is the type of bat you are talking about, then I would be on board. I am not against spending money or trying to field a competitive team, I just don't want to do anything that would hurt us long term.

Apparently you aren't reading all of peoples' posts, we are talking about the things that need to go right for the team to contend next season. Gonzo, Tillman, and Hardy need to bounce back and Gausman needs to take the next step. In addition Leak can give us the 200 IP we need from a mid rotation SP. By adding Span and Kim you are getting high OBP guys . We have 3 potential 30+ HR guys in Manny. AJ, and Schoop to drive them in

[Enjoy Terror]

No chance the O's contend. You would need Tillman, Gausman, and Ubaldo to have career years to pull a championship together. You'd need someone to replace Chris Davis on offense and we're going the wrong way.

They are two starters and three bats away from doing anything.

There should be discussion about whether Reimold or Alvarez is going to be the 4th OFer; as of right now they are starters. There should be discussion as to whether Miguel Gonzalez has room on the team; he's got 4th starter locked up. I see 75 wins AT BEST as the team is currently constructed.

[Aristotelian]

Apparently you aren't reading all of peoples' posts, we are talking about the things that need to go right for the team to contend next season. Gonzo, Tillman, and Hardy need to bounce back and Gausman needs to take the next step. In addition Leak can give us the 200 IP we need from a mid rotation SP. By adding Span and Kim you are getting high OBP guys . We have 3 potential 30+ HR guys in Manny. AJ, and Schoop to drive them in

Maybe we are disagreeing over what "realistic chance" means. I don't think all of those things happening is a realistic scenario. Let's say the odds of Schoop and Gausman breaking out are 30% each, and Gonzo, Tillman, and Hardy bouncing back to 2014 production are about 40-60% each. The odds of all those things happening are in the statistically insignificant range.

[Il BuonO]

Apparently you aren't reading all of peoples' posts, we are talking about the things that need to go right for the team to contend next season. Gonzo, Tillman, and Hardy need to bounce back and Gausman needs to take the next step. In addition Leak can give us the 200 IP we need from a mid rotation SP. By adding Span and Kim you are getting high OBP guys . We have 3 potential 30+ HR guys in Manny. AJ, and Schoop to drive them in

Leake is a league average starter (101 ERA+ career number). In what world does 200 IP from that guy put you over the top? Gonzalez, Tillman and Hardy need to bounce back? Does that mean they will? Span is an injury risk and Kim is a crapshoot.

We have three potential 30 HR guys? Manny has done it once. Jones twice but is two seasons removed from the last time he did it and is entering his age 30 season having just finished an injury riddled campaign. Schoop? Never. Clearly, Manny is the only safe bet out of the three to hit 30 HR.

The things you're talking about read more like a wish list than it does something based in reality. Stop talking about other people's posts and speak for yourself. Or, do I risk being reprimanded by you for more trolling?

[El Gordo]

Leake is a league average starter (101 ERA+ career number). In what world does 200 IP from that guy put you over the top? Gonzalez, Tillman and Hardy need to bounce back? Does that mean they will? Span is an injury risk and Kim is a crapshoot.

We have three potential 30 HR guys? Manny has done it once. Jones twice but is two seasons removed from the last time he did it and is entering his age 30 season having just finished an injury riddled campaign. Schoop? Never. Clearly, Manny is the only safe bet out of the three to hit 30 HR.

The things you're talking about read more like a wish list than it does something based in reality. Stop talking about other people's posts and speak for yourself. Or, do I risk being reprimanded by you for more trolling?

I refer you to Frobby's post #19 where he gave his laundry list of things that needed to go right. Maybe you'll be able to understand him. I was responding to him so I hope I can refer to him. And you are a troll IMO.

[Il BuonO]

I refer you to Frobby's post #19 where he gave his laundry list of things that needed to go right. Maybe you'll be able to understand him. I was responding to him so I hope I can refer to him. And you are a troll IMO.

And you're a whiny old man. Your list is fantastic, copycat isn't an art form.

[El Gordo]

And you're a whiny old man. Your list is fantastic, copycat isn't an art form.

What list? I'm referring to Frobby's, who am I copying

? I am saying that if the SP returns to 2014 form plus an innings eater to replace Chen, we get bounce back from Hardy, a COF or two with OBP, and improvement from Manny and Schoop, all quite possible, we could contend. What was your handle before you changed it Mr. T?

[Nevermore]

If the O's budget is flat, I don't see how we can contend. I see too many things that have to go right. But you never know.

The things that have to go right:

Matt Wieters has a stellar year

Mychal Givens proves capable as an 8th inning reliever

The O's front office doesn't trade Zach Britton

Brad Brach and/or the rest of the BP also have stellar years

Chris Tillman and Gonzo have bounce-back years

Ubaldo becomes consistent and pitches like an ace

Kevin Gausman remains in the rotation and has his breakout year

Somehow, somewhere, a 5th starter is discovered/obtained

Jonathan Schoop continues progressing and has an All Star year

JJ Hardy rediscovers his offense

Manny Machado has his usual fabulous year. He is signed to a long contract extension

Adam Jones keeps his health and has a year improved from 2015

Steve Pearce develops into a decent LF or RF and his offense bounces back to what it was in 2014

Somehow, somewhere, the O's find a replacement for Chris Davis and also for a corner OF. Or else they resign Parra and he has a decent year

These are too many things that will not happen. If O's management truly wants to contend, then PA will have to open up his wallet a bit and gain or resign some quality FAs.

[hoosiers]

Seems like a good year to go with the talent we have and see what happens while keeping all of our draft picks to restock the farm.

[Il BuonO]

What list? I'm referring to Frobby's, who am I copying

? I am saying that if the SP returns to 2014 form plus an innings eater to replace Chen, we get bounce back from Hardy, a COF or two with OBP, and improvement from Manny and Schoop, all quite possible, we could contend. What was your handle before you changed it Mr. T?

I said copycat, not copying. Yours is the cheap imitation. Here's Frobby's:

- Does Gausman begin to take steps towards being a TOR starter?

- Is Bundy able to stay healthy and progress to the point where he can compete for the rotation in 2017?

- Can Tillman and Gonzalez have the kind of success that they had in 2012-14, or is 2015 the new normal for them?

- Can Hunter Harvey stay healthy and get to a point where he might make a contribution sometime in 2017?

- Can J.J. Hardy bounce back offensively and not lose anything much on defense?

- Will Jonathan Schoop continue to make progress offensively, and have a defensive season more akin to 2014 than 2015?

- Can Trey Mancini continue to hit at the AAA level and make himself a likely Oriole contributor for 2017?

- Will we get anything out of Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright in 2016 and beyond?

- Can Mychal Givens handle being an 8th inning guy on a regular basis?

- Can we get better production in the corner OF spots than we had in 2015?

- Can we find a competent replacement for Chris Davis?

Lots of questions here. I don't think we need to bat 1.000 on these issues to contend in 2016. But we need to hit better than .500, I'd say. Especially on the starting pitching questions.

Lot's of questions he says and many good ones.

And this is the post you wrote to which I first responded.

Originally Posted by El Gordo

Apparently you aren't reading all of peoples' posts, we are talking about the things that need to go right for the team to contend next season. Gonzo, Tillman, and Hardy need to bounce back and Gausman needs to take the next step. In addition Leak can give us the 200 IP we need from a mid rotation SP. By adding Span and Kim you are getting high OBP guys . We have 3 potential 30+ HR guys in Manny. AJ, and Schoop to drive them in

First of all, the tone of the post from the start is that of an arrogant jerk. "Apparently you aren't reading all of peoples' (sic) posts"....to say nothing of the poor grammar. If you're going to be condescending it helps to look like you're actually smarter. The poster you had responded to had done nothing to illicit your beginning remarks.

I addressed the content of your post. Whereas Frobby, raised questions with his concerns, your speculation and whimsy is NOT the same thing. Talking about Mike Leake hitting the 200 IP as if he's part of the rotation already is pure speculation. And same goes for three guys hitting 30 HRs when only one of them has a likely chance to do so.

Finally, I respond to you the same way I would anyone else, but you're no better than anyone else. If I see garbage I'm calling you on it just like I get called on it if I throw it out there. Stop whining.