Jump to content

Prospects have little value. Bringing in talent is all that matters.


mskrulz

Recommended Posts

I hate to be "that" guy but we worry so much about obtaining talent through free agency because we don't want to lose draft picks but then we are upset when we make poor draft picks. At a certain point we need to stop worrying about the draft picks and sign the player you want. I obviously understand what draft picks and young players mean to boosting a depleted farm system, but until we perfect that process let's get talent. What percentage of first round draft picks are successful front line major league players anyway? Slam away but we just need talent and if you are pigeon holing what we can do and limiting the players we can get they we will never be successful.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 35
  • Created
  • Last Reply
I hate to be "that" guy but we worry so much about obtaining talent through free agency because we don't want to lose draft picks but then we are upset when we make poor draft picks. At a certain point we need to stop worrying about the draft picks and sign the player you want. I obviously understand what draft picks and young players mean to boosting a depleted farm system, but until we perfect that process let's get talent. What percentage of first round draft picks are successful front line major league players anyway? Slam away but we just need talent and if you are pigeon holing what we can do and limiting the players we can get they we will never be successful.

No slam at all. You are that guy. Need a different thread for your way. That's all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hate to be "that" guy but we worry so much about obtaining talent through free agency because we don't want to lose draft picks but then we are upset when we make poor draft picks. At a certain point we need to stop worrying about the draft picks and sign the player you want. I obviously understand what draft picks and young players mean to boosting a depleted farm system, but until we perfect that process let's get talent. What percentage of first round draft picks are successful front line major league players anyway? Slam away but we just need talent and if you are pigeon holing what we can do and limiting the players we can get they we will never be successful.

I agree to a point. If you want to invest in a player like Heyward that you can build around for eight years, then the pick is a negligible cost. If you are talking about a 4 year deal for a mediocre player like Gallardo, then to me the pick is a huge consideration and it is probably not worth it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hate to be "that" guy but we worry so much about obtaining talent through free agency because we don't want to lose draft picks but then we are upset when we make poor draft picks. At a certain point we need to stop worrying about the draft picks and sign the player you want. I obviously understand what draft picks and young players mean to boosting a depleted farm system, but until we perfect that process let's get talent. What percentage of first round draft picks are successful front line major league players anyway? Slam away but we just need talent and if you are pigeon holing what we can do and limiting the players we can get they we will never be successful.

I don't think you do.

A strong farm system means you can pay a guy 500K a year for three years instead of signing a free agent to a 3/12 deal.

No one has "perfected that process" which is part of the reason you need a lot of stuff to throw against the wall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think you do.

A strong farm system means you can pay a guy 500K a year for three years instead of signing a free agent to a 3/12 deal.

No one has "perfected that process" which is part of the reason you need a lot of stuff to throw against the wall.

Wasn't looking for my own thread, but thanks :) But, yes I do. With that being said how many of those draft picks at that price actually pan out or have for us. We have been very successful with guys like Chaz Roe and others but way less successful in drafting and developing our own guys. We've hit on Machado, Wieters to an extent but not much else and they were really high draft picks. We've sat on injured players like Dylan Bundy and others waiting for them to get healthy and develop. There are many other markets to get guys. Schoop was an international signing for one. At a certain point we can avoid picking up players that cost us picks who have real tangible value and maybe have less risk associated with them OR we can pick through a much lesser pool of players, many of which have great risk. Sometimes trying to find that minor league talent that costs 500K per year can costs you millions in the process. Baseball isn't like the NFL where you can draft 10 guys and carry them that same year. It's an educated crapshoot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we need to be a team who does a little bit of everything. The draft is a crapshoot, but we can find ways to get talent into our system via trading established players and making international signings.

The key is developing the talent we acquire. The jury is still out on whether the Duquette regime has made any strides in that regard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And BTW I'm not advocating giving up on the draft and going crazy in Free Agency. Simply, just not letting a draft pick deter you from getting a player that can really help you.

Since no FA deal actually provide excess value at the level that requires a number 13 first round pick to be sacrificed, giving one up is not ever something that could be defended.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think what you are really saying is that prospects have little value if you aren't good at drafting and developing them. Because I'd argue that there is nothing more valuable in baseball than a prospect who pans out. As an extreme example, Manny has been worth about $125 mm at free agent prices, but he has cost us less than $8 mm ($5.25 mm signing bonus, about $2 mm in major league salary, and a small pittance for minor league salaries in 2010-12). Eduardo Rodriguez, who we traded away, was worth $13.5 mm this year but cost the Red Sox $500k, and will continue to cost about $500k for the next 2-3 seasons (depending on whether he qualifies as a Super-Two after the 2017 season).

The Orioles have to have guys like this in order to afford a few of the more expensive players.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It depends on who the prospects are. If you're not developing prospects, you won't be able to afford to compete with the Orioles' payroll. Only teams like MFY and LAD can buy anyone they want to stock the ML team.

PS: Stewart seems like he might have been picked much lower than he was.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since no FA deal actually provide excess value at the level that requires a number 13 first round pick to be sacrificed, giving one up is not ever something that could be defended.

That is a rather extreme position. The average career value of a no. 13 pick is about 6 WAR. It's less than that if you only include the years before free agency, and then you have to consider the cost of the player during the six years you have him. The excess value of a no. 13 pick probably is in the 2-3 WAR range. There's also roughly a 43% chance that the no. 13 pick never makes the majors, and a 54% chance that the pick will never exceed replacement value.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since no FA deal actually provide excess value at the level that requires a number 13 first round pick to be sacrificed, giving one up is not ever something that could be defended.

Unless we draft a 3rd or 4th round talent with that 13th pick. In addition, I would argue that signing a player like Jason Heyward (who everybody here loves), is more important than a 13th pick (which usually isn't usually that high) because he is a proven commodity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...