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Projected Payroll 2016 Orioles -- Up to this Moment


AZRon

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Alvarez's defense is never getting any better. He is a DH. Comp is Kendry Morales. 3/18 is a good deal for him. He just got non tendered because the Pirates would not pay him 8m/year.

I think he is more likely to sign for 1/6 than 3/18. How often do position players sign 3 year deals for that little AAV?

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I think he is more likely to sign for 1/6 than 3/18. How often do position players sign 3 year deals for that little AAV?

It's in neither party's interest. The team has no reason to lock in a position player at <1 win a year, and the player almost certainly thinks that he could have a good year and sign a bigger deal next year.

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It's in neither party's interest. The team has no reason to lock in a position player at <1 win a year, and the player almost certainly thinks that he could have a good year and sign a bigger deal next year.

Its not likely that Alvarez will have a better year than he had last year. His 787 OPS is one point off the best he has ever done in 6 seasons. He didn't get as many at bats because he has proven he can't hit most lefties. His 2015 OPS lefties was 712 which is 100 points higher than his career average vs lefties.

A one year contract probably does not allow Alvarez to play any better than he did in 2015. Boras has to know he is a DH and should get as many years as the market will offer him.

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quoted from the interview on the "Hot Stove Show" on 105.7 The Fan, December 3, 2015.

Maybe, as to opening day player payrolls, not quite. Duquette joined the O's in November of 2011 and the opening day payroll for 2012 was down 3.4% from the previous year.

Anyhow, here's the opening day player payroll history during Duquette's tenure plus the history for the same period for the MLB in total (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus):

[TABLE=width: 385]

<tbody>[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD=align: right]Payroll $M[/TD]

[TD=align: right]% Delta[/TD]

[TD=align: center]MLB $B[/TD]

[TD=align: center]% Delta[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD=align: center][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2015[/TD]

[TD=align: right]119[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10.2%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.8[/TD]

[TD=align: center]8.6%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2014[/TD]

[TD=align: right]108[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17.4%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.5[/TD]

[TD=align: center]9.4%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2013[/TD]

[TD=align: right]92[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8.2%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]6.7%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2012[/TD]

[TD=align: right]85[/TD]

[TD=align: right]-3.4%[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]3.4%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2011[/TD]

[TD=align: right]88[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD=align: center]2.9[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

So, overall, during the Duquette regime, opening day player payroll has increased by 34%. This compares with an increase of 31% for all

of MLB. The average increase is 8.8% for the Orioles and 7.75% for MLB.

$1.19M is the number for each 1% change from the 2015 Orioles opening day player payroll. The current projected payroll is $106.17M.

That means that Duquette has the following amounts left to spend under the listed scenarios:

[TABLE=width: 370]

<tbody>[TR]

[TD]Assumption[/TD]

[TD=align: center]Assumed Payroll $M[/TD]

[TD=align: center]$M Left To Spend[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD=align: center][/TD]

[TD=align: center][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]No Change[/TD]

[TD=align: center]119.0[/TD]

[TD=align: center]13.0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]MLB Average Increase[/TD]

[TD=align: center]128.2[/TD]

[TD=align: center]22.1[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]O's Average Increase[/TD]

[TD=align: center]129.5[/TD]

[TD=align: center]23.3[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Same Delta as 2015[/TD]

[TD=align: center]131.4[/TD]

[TD=align: center]25.0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]DD Max to Date[/TD]

[TD=align: center]139.7[/TD]

[TD=align: center]33.6[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]20% Delta[/TD]

[TD=align: center]142.8[/TD]

[TD=align: center]36.6[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]30% Delta[/TD]

[TD=align: center]154.7[/TD]

[TD=align: center]48.6[/TD]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

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Yup I think 150 is the magic number this year. We'll see. Fully prepared to be super wrong about that.

Greinke and Price are off the board. I don't think we could spend $150M if we tried. Based on AZRon's numbers, I could see $130M being realistic. Enough to get a pitcher and a bat but probably not Davis/Heyward.

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Greinke and Price are off the board. I don't think we could spend $150M if we tried. Based on AZRon's numbers, I could see $130M being realistic. Enough to get a pitcher and a bat but probably not Davis/Heyward.
SP 12-15M. Bat 10 M. Davis 16 -20 M(back loaded contract). Who's paying Davis more than 6/120M?
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SP 12-15M. Bat 10 M. Davis 16 -20 M(back loaded contract). Who's paying Davis more than 6/120M?

Boras may corner the old guy in Detroit like he did with Prince. Maybe he gets Dombrowski to go nuts. He's going to pull something out of his hat with all this money sloshing around.

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Boras may corner the old guy in Detroit like he did with Prince. Maybe he gets Dombrowski to go nuts. He's going to pull something out of his hat with all this money sloshing around.
They have no openings at 1B, DH, or COF in DET. BOS has a problem with HanRan, so those two are highly unlikely. The probable suitors are SEA, STL, and possibly HOU. I don't see any of those offering more than 6/120, and if we can't top that shame on us, after all that 7/140 BS.
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They have no openings at 1B, DH, or COF in DET. BOS has a problem with HanRan, so those two are highly unlikely. The probable suitors are SEA, STL, and possibly HOU. I don't see any of those offering more than 6/120, and if we can't top that shame on us, after all that 7/140 BS.

Everything you write is sound logic. I just don't see Boras "settling" with his big chip. He always seems to pull a rabbit out of the hat. Thus, I don't know that simply waiting it out carries the day. Perhaps he gets Arte Moreno fired up.

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Everything you write is sound logic. I just don't see Boras "settling" with his big chip. He always seems to pull a rabbit out of the hat. Thus, I don't know that simply waiting it out carries the day. Perhaps he gets Arte Moreno fired up.
Boras is good but he is not a sorcerer. Otherwise why did Wieters take a QO, and what happened with Drew, and Morales. Where does Davis play on LAA. Magical thinking.
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