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Let me see if I understand our strategy correctly....


DocJJ

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My take on Tillman and Gonzo having bad years last year is that when they got banged up and needed to go on the DL they either couldn't go on at all or didn't stay on the DL to fully heal. Why? Because we had no depth at SP. Norris was blowing up. Gausman was getting yanked around early in the year.

Therefore I think it's pretty reasonable to think that Tillman and Gonzo will likely get back to their career norms. This year we're going to have more rotation depth. We already have Worley, Wilson and Wright. Matusz is going to get some starts in ST. Bundy could somehow be healthy. On top of that we're going to see DD sign some milb FA's too. Todd Redmond is a guy we signed that could make a spot start. Plus we're not done adding arms at the MLB level.

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Well if you look at the peripherals of O's pitching and the year by year FIP and ERA trends of the last 15 or so odd years it's pretty clear that the O's have blown at pitching.

The Orioles best four FIPs of the past 15 years were 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015, so that looks like a pretty good trend. Even adjusting for league/park 2012, 2014, and 2015 are three of the O's best four in that timeframe (along with 2004).

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In terms of fixing our poor starting rotation (which will soon be even worse with Chen's departure):

Our "plan" is to simply hope that the pitchers we have will magically become better.

We're too cheap to sign quality free agent starters.

Our farm system hasn't produced any quality starters.

(We traded away decent starting prospects Arrieta, Hader, Davies).

So we'll simply hope what we have will be better! Love it!

Now comes your comeuppance. How dare you make negative posts on an Orioles site.

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Now comes your comeuppance. How dare you make negative posts on an Orioles site.

Negative is fine if it's backed up with something of substance. It's just crying and shouting for attention when it's a bunch of stuff about having no plan except for being cheap and doing nothing and hoping it all works out.

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I was never as huge a fan of his as many O's fans. His 3 HR in 686 plate appearances last year seems a bit embarrassing.

However I agree he might have helped us in our playoff hunt. He walked over 70 times, hit 38 doubles, played good defense and had an OBP of .370. That would have looked good in the leadoff spot, wit Machado, Jones, and Davis up after him.

Yes, one can hope certain guys "return to form". Yes, one can hope for improvement from some guys who under-achieved. Yes, one can hope for unexpectedly good breakout performance from an unproven.

The problem is that is what we do every year. And it gets really, really old. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result...

What did we do differently in 2012 and 2014? We signed a leftover FA that nobody wanted (Cruz) just like we always do. We traded for an under performing 1B (Davis) just like we always do. What huge FA did we sign in 2012 or 2014 that made those years different from 1999-2011? How did we possibly get different results?

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My take on Tillman and Gonzo having bad years last year is that when they got banged up and needed to go on the DL they either couldn't go on at all or didn't stay on the DL to fully heal. Why? Because we had no depth at SP. Norris was blowing up. Gausman was getting yanked around early in the year.

Therefore I think it's pretty reasonable to think that Tillman and Gonzo will likely get back to their career norms. This year we're going to have more rotation depth. We already have Worley, Wilson and Wright. Matusz is going to get some starts in ST. Bundy could somehow be healthy. On top of that we're going to see DD sign some milb FA's too. Todd Redmond is a guy we signed that could make a spot start. Plus we're not done adding arms at the MLB level.

I would feel a lot more confident that these players performances were because of injury if their peripherals were way off from their career norms.

Tillman has a career Fip of 4.62 and last year Fip'd a 4.45. Gonzo put up a 5.01 against a career line of 4.81.

Gonzo has less of a sample size, so his career number might be skewed a bit by last year, but either way, there is a reason FiP is a better predictive tool than ERA, so it doesn't take a stretch to be concerned that these guys "returned to form" last year and not this one.

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What did we do differently in 2012 and 2014? We signed a leftover FA that nobody wanted (Cruz) just like we always do. We traded for an under performing 1B (Davis) just like we always do. What huge FA did we sign in 2012 or 2014 that made those years different from 1999-2011? How did we possibly get different results?

Dan sold his soul to the Devil, but ol' Beelzebub came back for it in 2015.

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What did we do differently in 2012 and 2014? We signed a leftover FA that nobody wanted (Cruz) just like we always do. We traded for an under performing 1B (Davis) just like we always do. What huge FA did we sign in 2012 or 2014 that made those years different from 1999-2011? How did we possibly get different results?

All we need to do is to repeat a historic level of trade success, develop young talent, and have our starting pitchers grossly outperform their peripheral numbers for a three year stretch again.

Print the playoff tickets baby!

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All we need to do is to repeat a historic level of trade success, develop young talent, and have our starting pitchers grossly outperform their peripheral numbers for a three year stretch again.

Print the playoff tickets baby!

But wait...we did the same thing we always do, but got different results.....that's insanity!

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What did we do differently in 2012 and 2014? We signed a leftover FA that nobody wanted (Cruz) just like we always do. We traded for an under performing 1B (Davis) just like we always do. What huge FA did we sign in 2012 or 2014 that made those years different from 1999-2011? How did we possibly get different results?

What was different was Macphail put a good core together.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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What did we do differently in 2012 and 2014? We signed a leftover FA that nobody wanted (Cruz) just like we always do. We traded for an under performing 1B (Davis) just like we always do. What huge FA did we sign in 2012 or 2014 that made those years different from 1999-2011? How did we possibly get different results?

We signed a top middle of the order power threat in Cruz. He rewarded us nicely.

Ha-ha-ha...."just like we always do".... That had me in stitches.

Nice try.

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