Our need for LH Batters is overstated

[DrungoHazewood]

I keep reading that we have this big problem of having too many RH batters. But people should look at the career splits of these three RH hitters:

Jonathan Schoop: .729 vs. RHP, .555 vs. LHP

Manny Machado: .805 vs. RHP, .744 vs. LHP

Adam Jones: .795 vs. RHP, .745 vs. LHP

I really don't think we are particularly vulnerable to RHP as a team, and wouldn't worry much about whether any position players we acquire bat right- or left-handed. Just make sure we get guys who are actually good.

By the way, of the big names left on the market:

Heyward .838/.660

Upton .805/.886

Gordon .798/.750

Davis .875/.742

Cespedes .811/.788

I don't believe in reverse splits. I would project each of Schoop, Machado and Jones to have normal splits this year. Not that that significantly changes any of the conclusions. The Orioles need good hitters of any handedness, and I don't think they're particularly slanted one way or the other right now.

[DrungoHazewood]

Really I'm quite shocked....those numbers almost say platoon.

No, I think they more clearly say "crazy stuff happens in 200 PAs".

[SpinJr]

No, I think they more clearly say "crazy stuff happens in 200 PAs".

Fair enough. But couldn't those numbers also say "he shoulnt' having 200 PAs against LHs anymore"?

[Frobby]

Soft tossing LH's always give us problems. No surprise to see our 3 most aggressive hitters in Machado, Schoop and Jones, struggling with them. That's obvious. There's more the the needing a LH bat than just the stats show. We have to at least make RH pitchers think about having to establish a change up for the LH's. Or whatever pitch they use to neutralize them. If anything just to make them work harder mentally.

I don't think Machado is one of our three most aggressive hitters, by any means. He was second on the team in walks and saw 3.91 pitches per plate appearance, which is above average.

The team did not hit lefties well (.662 OPS) in 2015, including some guys who usually feast on lefties (like Hardy and Pearce). So, that's another reason I don't care much about acquiring a LHB.

[Frobby]

I don't believe in reverse splits.

Why not? It seems logical to me that some RHB may hit better against RHP, simply because that's who they see 70% of the time so they're more used to it. I'd be much more suspicious of a LHB with reverse splits.

That said, it seems to me that almost every hitter has a couple of years where his splits are the reverse of what he normally does. For example, Jones had a 1.002 OPS vs. LHP in 2014, even though his career numbers against LHP are weaker than against RHP.

[DrungoHazewood]

Fair enough. But couldn't those numbers also say "he shoulnt' having 200 PAs against LHs anymore"?

No they don't. There are very, very few players who have true reverse splits over a long career. Almost everyone eventually trends back towards being a bit better against opposite-handed pitchers. I would much rather bet on Schoop, Jones and Machado hitting lefties in 2016 than going out and finding platoon mates for them in the Orioles' price range and somehow fitting all that on a 25-man roster. Oh, and somehow convincing Buck to break it to the most important players on the team that they're just glorified platoon players despite Machado and Jones being in several recent MVP conversations.

[DrungoHazewood]

Why not? It seems logical to me that some RHB may hit better against RHP, simply because that's who they see 70% of the time so they're more used to it. I'd be much more suspicious of a LHB with reverse splits.

Because it's exceptionally rare among players with long careers. But much more common in SSS. Reality here could be modeled quite accurately by assuming everyone has a standard platoon split with random variations around that. That is almost exactly what it looks like.

[Frobby]

No they don't. There are very, very few players who have true reverse splits over a long career. Almost everyone eventually trends back towards being a bit better against opposite-handed pitchers. I would much rather bet on Schoop, Jones and Machado hitting lefties in 2016 than going out and finding platoon mates for them in the Orioles' price range and somehow fitting all that on a 25-man roster. Oh, and somehow convincing Buck to break it to the most important players on the team that they're just glorified platoon players despite Machado and Jones being in several recent MVP conversations.

Jones' and Machados' numbers vs. LHP are just fine, even if they hit RHP a little better. Nobody would suggest that either should be platooned. As to Schoop, obviously he has a shorter track record, so it will take more time to see if he genuinely struggles against LHP.

I think the bigger point here is that all three of these guys hit RHP very well, so there isn't a glaring need to focus on acquiring a LH bat. There's no reason to think their performance vs. RHP will suddenly disintegrate.

[DrungoHazewood]

Jones' and Machados' numbers vs. LHP are just fine, even if they hit RHP a little better.

Agreed, but I was responding to SpinJr who said that "those numbers almost say platoon" and "he shouldn't be having 200 PAs against LHP any more."

[Frobby]

Because it's exceptionally rare among players with long careers. But much more common in SSS. Reality here could be modeled quite accurately by assuming everyone has a standard platoon split with random variations around that. That is almost exactly what it looks like.

Who are some guys with reverse splits over a long career? I agree there don't appear to be many, at least among RHB.

[Frobby]

Who are some guys with reverse splits over a long career? I agree there don't appear to be many, at least among RHB.

Found this:

There’s only 2 right handed hitters in the last 15 years who have had reverse splits of at least 10 points in wOBA lol (and 1000 PA vs both sides) and they are Dan Uggla and Adam Jones

https://rotogrinders.com/threads/targeting-reverse-splits-hitters-against-reverse-splits-pitchers-777793?page=1

[spiritof66]

Two different points here. One is the shortage of LH hitters in the lineup, which ordinarily would make for weakness against RH pitchers. The numbers, despite their limitations, do suggest that some of the Orioles' best RH hitters are likely to hit RH pitching pretty well.

There's a separate point, which I tried to make earlier this off-season when it

looked like there was no chance of Davis returning and Trumbo would replace him: LH pull hitters with power should provide enhanced value when they play half their games at Camden Yards, and it doesn't make a lot of sense to have none of them on your roster (or, counting Wieters, one of them). It's an adapt-your-team-to-the home-field (or at least don't go too far in the opposite direction) thing, not a need-some-LH-batters-who-will-be-able-to-hit-RH-pitchers thing.

[DrungoHazewood]

Who are some guys with reverse splits over a long career? I agree there don't appear to be many, at least among RHB.

Phil Bradley?

[Frobby]

Two different points here. One is the shortage of LH hitters in the lineup, which ordinarily would make for weakness against RH pitchers. The numbers, despite their limitations, do suggest that some of the Orioles' best RH hitters are likely to hit RH pitching pretty well.

There's a separate point, which I tried to make earlier this off-season when it

looked like there was no chance of Davis returning and Trumbo would replace him: LH pull hitters with power should provide enhanced value when they play half their games at Camden Yards, and it doesn't make a lot of sense to have none of them on your roster (or, counting Wieters, one of them). It's an adapt-your-team-to-the home-field (or at least don't go too far in the opposite direction) thing, not a need-some-LH-batters-who-will-be-able-to-hit-RH-pitchers thing.

Although LH hitters have a big advantage at OPACY due to the right field wall, the power alley in LF is very short and RH hitters also find it advantageous. Over the last few years, the HR park factor for LHB is 114, for RHB it is 104 (anything above 100 means that it's a relatively easy HR field). http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pfh&season=2014&teamid=0