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Is Duquette helping the rotation by bolstering the pen?


srock

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I can't help but notice the supply of bullpen arms is quite high right now. My theory is bolstering the rotation by keeping the innings down on the mid tier starting pitchers. We do this by keeping a stockpile of potential starting pitchers in the bullpen hoping there stuff 'plays up' out of the pen (like Britton) who can also eat innings if needed.

We saw how Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright could be effective starters if used when hot and in limited outings. I don't know exactly how Buck would juggle the players, but but the pieces are in place.

Bullpen breakdown:

Britton and O'Day at the back is as good as it gets.

Jason Garcia, Brian Matusz, and Mychal Givens are likely the next 3 in the line as pure relievers

Then you have the everyday bullpen fodder every team has: Brad Brach, Chaz Roe, TJ Macfarland etc.

Interestingly, the Orioles have a pile of young starters who can be used for this purpose.

The top 30 prospect list makes this point on several candidates:

Dylan Bundy - Has to be on the MLB roster

Hunter Harvey - may need to rehab in the minors this year, but could be a call up late

Chris Lee - Baysox lefty, another backend starter who could do better in the pen

Mike Wright - saw he can pitch at this level last year but then he got exposed

Tyler Wilson - same as Mike Wright

Oliver Drake - same as Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson

Berry and Bridwell are probably long shots

I think Bundy, Wright, Wilson, and maybe Drake get dibs on this Norfolk shuttle.

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I can't help but notice the supply of bullpen arms is quite high right now. My theory is bolstering the rotation by keeping the innings down on the mid tier starting pitchers. We do this by keeping a stockpile of potential starting pitchers in the bullpen hoping there stuff 'plays up' out of the pen (like Britton) who can also eat innings if needed.

We saw how Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright could be effective starters if used when hot and in limited outings. I don't know exactly how Buck would juggle the players, but but the pieces are in place.

Bullpen breakdown:

Britton and O'Day at the back is as good as it gets.

Jason Garcia, Brian Matusz, and Mychal Givens are likely the next 3 in the line as pure relievers

Then you have the everyday bullpen fodder every team has: Brad Brach, Chaz Roe, TJ Macfarland etc.

Interestingly, the Orioles have a pile of young starters who can be used for this purpose.

The top 30 prospect list makes this point on several candidates:

Dylan Bundy - Has to be on the MLB roster

Hunter Harvey - may need to rehab in the minors this year, but could be a call up late

Chris Lee - Baysox lefty, another backend starter who could do better in the pen

Mike Wright - saw he can pitch at this level last year but then he got exposed

Tyler Wilson - same as Mike Wright

Oliver Drake - same as Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson

Berry and Bridwell are probably long shots

I think Bundy, Wright, Wilson, and maybe Drake get dibs on this Norfolk shuttle.

Bundy has been on the MLB roster since he signed. He has no options remaining. He cannot be sent down.

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I can't help but notice the supply of bullpen arms is quite high right now. My theory is bolstering the rotation by keeping the innings down on the mid tier starting pitchers. We do this by keeping a stockpile of potential starting pitchers in the bullpen hoping there stuff 'plays up' out of the pen (like Britton) who can also eat innings if needed.

We saw how Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright could be effective starters if used when hot and in limited outings. I don't know exactly how Buck would juggle the players, but but the pieces are in place.

Bullpen breakdown:

Britton and O'Day at the back is as good as it gets.

Jason Garcia, Brian Matusz, and Mychal Givens are likely the next 3 in the line as pure relievers

Then you have the everyday bullpen fodder every team has: Brad Brach, Chaz Roe, TJ Macfarland etc.

Interestingly, the Orioles have a pile of young starters who can be used for this purpose.

The top 30 prospect list makes this point on several candidates:

Dylan Bundy - Has to be on the MLB roster

Hunter Harvey - may need to rehab in the minors this year, but could be a call up late

Chris Lee - Baysox lefty, another backend starter who could do better in the pen

Mike Wright - saw he can pitch at this level last year but then he got exposed

Tyler Wilson - same as Mike Wright

Oliver Drake - same as Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson

Berry and Bridwell are probably long shots

I think Bundy, Wright, Wilson, and maybe Drake get dibs on this Norfolk shuttle.

I've said before that outside of a primary closer and (at most) one short reliever, the more long relievers that a bullpen has, the better.

I've also said before that the fact that the Orioles managed to go 81-81 overall last year with such bad starting pitching is/was a testament to the bullpen.

In football, a good offense can help a defense by letting them rest by getting first downs and controlling the ball with a high time of possession. Also, if the offense scores a lot of points, it allows the defense to tee off and take more risks.

So yes, an excellent bullpen with lots of long relievers can help a mediocre and/or porous starting rotation.

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Brach is far from bullpen fodder. lol. The dude posted a 2.0 WAR out of the pen last year. With Britton the pen looks like:

Britton

O'day

Brach

Givens

Matusz

Worley

Bundy/rule 5/Roe

Which is a great pen. We'll get another starter for the 5th spot. Worley and Matusz will be options to spot start. Likely just worley.

With the failure to develop SP's, we should keep the milb'ers starting until they are out of options. DD has shown he can piece together a bullpen. The worst thing would be just to stick guys in the pen because they would have more short term success there. All of our fringey starters should start and pitch the entire year in the minors and log innings and DEVELOP what it is they need to be MLB SP's. Of course we'll play the option game and rotate fresh arms, and we'll Wright/Wilson/Garcia. But once there back in the minors they should/will be starting. Plus this also delays their callups to the MLB, thus giving us more control over more experienced, developed, pitchers in their prime years.

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The Orioles bullpen is situated to be one of the best in baseball. The rotation is, well, probably going to be mediocre.

Theres a well established "Times Through the Order Penalty" for starting pitchers. Basically, for non-elite pitchers going through the lineup a third time gets dicey and hitters have a distinct advantage. Some teams (notably Rays, Royals IIRC) have found success by limiting these situations. The issue is if you only have each starter go 5IP every outing the bullpen will become overworked.

I think the Orioles bullpen situation could allow them to take advantage of this by having multiple high quality RP who can go multiple innings. Brach, Givens, and O'Day are outstanding and have shown the ability last year to be effective in relief appearances over an inning in length. Worley/Bundy could potentially be in similar spots also.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/its-time-to-be-smarter-about-bullpen-usage/

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  • 4 months later...

I've said before that outside of a primary closer and (at most) one short reliever, the more long relievers that a bullpen has, the better.

I've also said before that the fact that the Orioles managed to go 81-81 overall last year with such bad starting pitching is/was a testament to the bullpen.

In football, a good offense can help a defense by letting them rest by getting first downs and controlling the ball with a high time of possession. Also, if the offense scores a lot of points, it allows the defense to tee off and take more risks.

So yes, an excellent bullpen with lots of long relievers can help a mediocre and/or porous starting rotation.

And after 7 games, the Orioles have had (and have been using) numerous long relievers.

The only starting pitchers that I am confidant that can consistently go deep into games right now are Tillman and Jimenez.

And I'm not necessarily saying that the others (Gallardo, Wilson, Wright, Gausman, etc.) won't eventually step up and be able to do so themselves ...... I'm simply saying that the only ones that I feel very good about RIGHT NOW going deep into games on a regular basis are Tillman and Jimenez.

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I know its a really unusual idea, but with Flaherty basically being able to back up LF, RF and every infield position but catcher, Rickard being able to backup CF and Joseph being not only a strong backup catcher, but a pretty excellent hitter off the bench, is there any possibility we see a 2 man bench and a 9 man pen at times this season? Can anyone remember a team doing that for extended periods for any team in the past?

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And after 7 games, the Orioles have had (and have been using) numerous long relievers.

The only starting pitchers that I am confidant that can consistently go deep into games right now are Tillman and Jimenez.

And I'm not necessarily saying that the others (Gallardo, Wilson, Wright, Gausman, etc.) won't eventually step up and be able to do so themselves ...... I'm simply saying that the only ones that I feel very good about RIGHT NOW going deep into games on a regular basis are Tillman and Jimenez.

one start, you're confident that Jimenez can consistently go deep? You gotta be kidding! In two years with the Orioles, he's averaged less than 6 innings per start.

No, not after one start.

After one year AND one start.

You are combining Jimenez' results over the last 2 years.

Jimenez was considerably better last year than he was in 2014, and was more durable and consistent.

Last year, he went 6 innings or more in 15 of his 32 starts, and pitched 184 innings.

In 2014, he only went 6 or more innings in 8 out of 20 starts before being relegated to the bullpen, and finishing the season with 125.33 innings pitched.

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o

Perhaps I should amend/qualify my original statement, as RZNJ's post made me ponder the situation a little more.

I feel confidant that Tillman and Jimenez can go relatively deep into games this year.

6 innings or more is kind of borderline for the definition of "deep into games." Truly deep into games is more like 6.67 or more, or 7 or more innings.

But ..... considering the others that we currently have in the rotation (a Gallardo whom it remains to be seen just how healthy his shoulder is, Mike Wright, Vance Worley, perhaps Tyler Wilson and/or Odrisamer Despaigne as the season progresses, and a rehabbing Kevin Gausman), 6 innings right about now looks pretty deep, comparatively speaking.

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He went 184 innings in 32 starts. That's still an average of under 6 innings per start. That's not getting deep into games any way you slice it. You can name as many starts as you want that he went deep. That means there were many starts where he went 3 or 4.

No, it doesn't.

He was ejected from a game early in the season after 3.67 innings when he had not yielded any hits.

Aside from that game, there were only 5 games in which he failed to go at least 5 innings. 5 out of 31, plus the game that he was ejected from.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=jimenub01&t=p&year=2015

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He went 184 innings in 32 starts. That's still an average of under 6 innings per start. That's not getting deep into games any way you slice it. You can name as many starts as you want that he went deep. That means there were many starts where he went 3 or 4.

Do recall how many starters averaged over 6 innings a start last season?

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He went 184 innings in 32 starts. That's still an average of under 6 innings per start. That's not getting deep into games any way you slice it. You can name as many starts as you want that he went deep. That means there were many starts where he went 3 or 4.

No, it doesn't.

He was ejected from a game early in the season after 3.67 innings when he had not yielded any hits.

Aside from that game, there were only 5 games in which he failed to go at least 5 innings. 5 out of 31, plus the game that he was ejected from.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=jimenub01&t=p&year=2015

5 times he failed to go 5. That sounds like a bad number to me. He many times did he finish 7? The fact remains that he averaged less than 6 which is not getting deep into games.

He finished 7 or more innings 8 times out of 31, and he went 6.67 innings a 9th time.

Failing to go 5 innings 5 times out of 31 does not sound bad to me. Last year, Wei-Yin Chen failed to go 5 innings 4 times out of 31, and he was our best pitcher.

Chris Tillman had a bad year last year, and he failed to go 5 innings 9 times out of 31. THAT sounds like a bad number, more so than Jimenez' 5 out of 31, or Chen's 4 out of 31.

I don't know why Tillman came into ST out of shape last year, because it was the only time in his career that I have been following him (since 2009) that he did that. But he conceded that he did that, and that it was a mistake, and that he is on a mission not to do that again.

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