What is KG's ceiling?

[murph]

Sorry Frobby for the steal, but I think it is a fun discussion and enjoy reading everyone's perspective on the possibilities.

So what do we think, sub 3.00 Era or even better? 200+ K's if he can get the innings?

Will he have an inning cap next year, guessing so, since he was at about 130 innings overall.

[Orange]

Buck made a reference to seeing what Gausman can do when we take the governor off... So I'm guessing they'll invite him to the grown-ups table this year and let him go.

[Frobby]

After watching what Arrieta did this year, I'm hesitant to underestimate the ceiling of what Gausman might be capable of. My conservative side says most likely his ceiling is a strong no. 2 -- 200 IP and an ERA in the low 3's, close to 9 K/9. And I'd be very happy if he reached that level eventually. But maybe I am selling his potential short.

[weams]

Buck made a reference to seeing what Gausman can do when we take the governor off... So I'm guessing they'll invite him to the grown-ups table this year and let him go.

Yes. This.

[Can_of_corn]

Sorry Frobby for the steal, but I think it is a fun discussion and enjoy reading everyone's perspective on the possibilities.

So what do we think, sub 3.00 Era or even better? 200+ K's if he can get the innings?

Will he have an inning cap next year, guessing so, since he was at about 130 innings overall.

Why do folks (not just you) always forget to include the innings he threw in the minors and (in 2014) the playoffs? He had over 160 combined innings in 2014, was no real need to watch his innings last year.

[weams]

Kevin Gausman may well be the best pitcher we have had since Erik Bedard. That's a live arm. And he really has improved in his last two years of development. His third pitch has firmed up and he has two variations of his fastball and his change.

[murph]

Why do folks (not just you) always forget to include the innings he threw in the minors and (in 2014) the playoffs? He had over 160 combined innings in 2014, was no real need to watch his innings last year.

The 130 was me adding the minors IP to his 2015 total. But, yup, completely whiffed on 2014. So your thinking no limit then for 2016?

[Can_of_corn]

The 130 was me adding the minors IP to his 2015 total. But, yup, completely whiffed on 2014. So your thinking no limit then for 2016?

I'm thinking no limit for 2016.

If they had let him lose in 2015 what are the odds he hit 200 IP?

I ran the numbers last year and it came out to basically one starter a year for the O's hits 200, and it wouldn't have been Gausman.

[Frobby]

God they had better not limit him this year. It's freaking TIME. Plus we're gonna need every inning he can give us.

Let's just see how the season goes. In his starts the last two years, Gausman has averaged 5.65 and 5.90 innings per start. I don't think that's because Buck was babying him, he just didn't get deep into games that often because his pitch counts got up there. If he gets to the point where he's averaging over 6 innings per start, then we might need to be watching his innings towards the end of the year. If we are in the race then, we can worry about it.

[Mayor McCheese]

I am not sure about KG but my wife is a huge fan of the popcorn ceiling.

[Tony-OH]

Kevin Gausman may well be the best pitcher we have had since Erik Bedard. That's a live arm. And he really has improved in his last two years of development. His third pitch has firmed up and he has two variations of his fastball and his change.

I really wish this were true but Pitch F/x values would disagree. The slider is still a poor pitch although it's improved from a horrible -2.7 wSL rating to slightly less horrible -2.2 wSL. His two-seam FB was his only plus value pitch last year as batters started to adjust to the split-finger/change/forkball ast year and even that pitch became a negative value.

Unless Gausman can come up with an effective third pitch, his ceiling is a 3rd starter, 3.50 ERA guy. There is value in that of course and if I'm the Orioles i'm going to run him out there every 5th day. The other angle is converting him into a Trevor Hoffman-type fastball/split-change closer at some point.

I hope he can find consistency, but in my assessment, Gausman is not going to end up a TOR without a consistent, effective breaking ball and will most likely settle in as 3rd starter type.

[Frobby]

I really wish this were true but Pitch F/x values would disagree. The slider is still a poor pitch although it's improved from a horrible -2.7 wSL rating to slightly less horrible -2.2 wSL. His two-seam FB was his only plus value pitch last year as batters started to adjust to the split-finger/change/forkball ast year and even that pitch became a negative value.

Unless Gausman can come up with an effective third pitch, his ceiling is a 3rd starter, 3.50 ERA guy. There is value in that of course and if I'm the Orioles i'm going to run him out there every 5th day. The other angle is converting him into a Trevor Hoffman-type fastball/split-change closer at some point.

I hope he can find consistency, but in my assessment, Gausman is not going to end up a TOR without a consistent, effective breaking ball and will most likely settle in as 3rd starter type.

What do you make of this remark?

"It will be nice to be throwing my breaking ball this whole offseason and go into spring training knowing I'm going to be throwing a curveball," Gausman said. "Last year, I started throwing my curveball a week before spring training was over. Going into the season having those reps will be huge for me."

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2015/12/will-2016-be-a-big-season-for-kevin-gausman.html

[Es4M11]

I really wish this were true but Pitch F/x values would disagree. The slider is still a poor pitch although it's improved from a horrible -2.7 wSL rating to slightly less horrible -2.2 wSL. His two-seam FB was his only plus value pitch last year as batters started to adjust to the split-finger/change/forkball ast year and even that pitch became a negative value.

Unless Gausman can come up with an effective third pitch, his ceiling is a 3rd starter, 3.50 ERA guy. There is value in that of course and if I'm the Orioles i'm going to run him out there every 5th day. The other angle is converting him into a Trevor Hoffman-type fastball/split-change closer at some point.

I hope he can find consistency, but in my assessment, Gausman is not going to end up a TOR without a consistent, effective breaking ball and will most likely settle in as 3rd starter type.

I agree with this assessment. KG's slider has not come along as I would have hoped - maybe that changes this year. His fastball is too straight/not enough movement to be a consistently dominant pitch. Unless KG's command is on and he is hitting the corners I don't see his fastball as a huge weapon.

[BergerKing]

Maybe I am smoking some good stuff but I see a top 10 pitcher within the next couple of seasons.

[Frobby]

A few tidbits from Dave Wallace over the weekend:

Wallace believes that Gausman will benefit from regular turns.

"Yeah, I think it's just time to take the kid gloves off him," Wallace said. "Kevin certainly has come on and made strides, both in '14 and in '15. Now his understanding of the game is so much better, his understanding of himself and what he needs to do. We all stress fastball command by taking something off, putting something on. His secondary pitches. Kevin is ready to take that step and he knows it."

Wallace said the Orioles saw incremental improvements in Gausman. It just wasn't consistent.

"That's OK. That's part of the process," Wallace said.

"I think there were a couple games in July where he really used his changeup real well, and he came in and said, 'Man, I can't believe I got away with that one.' Especially a 2-0 or 2-1 count. Then you put something in a hitter's mind, where he's expecting something else.

"And the other thing is, as far as the starting pitchers, especially a young one like Kevin, when you're around the league the second, third or fourth time, then it becomes much more difficult. Everybody that faces Kevin Gausman now knows they're going to get a very good fastball. Now it's time for him to make some adjustments off that and know what he has to do."

Gausman underwent LASIK surgery at the Johns Hopkins Wilmer Eye Institute three days after the season ended. Wallace has no idea whether it will make Gausman a better pitcher.

"I'm not a doctor, but I can tell you that he's comfortable with it," Wallace said. "You know these very sensitive starting pitchers. If you're comfortable with something, then I think it automatically has to become better."

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2015/12/wallace-on-tillman-gonzalez-gausman-and-more.html