Kazmir v. Gallardo

[weams]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-much-is-a-draft-pick-worth-in-2014/

With these variables, it’s easy to see why such a wide range of values gets thrown around for draft picks. This past March on THT, Matt Swartz estimated that the 30th pick of the draft was worth about $6.7 million of present value. On the other hand, Dan Szymborski of ESPN wrote that the 26th pick that the Braves gave up to sign Ervin Santana was worth $19.6 million.

To better understand the true value of a draft pick and explain the differences between these projections, we need to do three things:

Estimate the total value that each draft pick will produce, and how that value will be distributed

Calculate the net value of each draft pick (which means estimating how players are compensated relative to their performance while they are under team control)

Determine how value of the drafted players changes over time

[weams]

NET DRAFT PICK VALUE, MARKET % VS WAR-BASED ARBITRATION MODEL

Draft Pick Pre-FA WAR Market Value $ Cost ? Market % Net $ ? Market % Cost ? WAR Net $ ? WAR

1-5 9.2 70.1 17.6 52.4 15.9 54.2

6-10 5.2 39.7 9.3 30.5 10.3 29.5

11-15 4.1 31.2 7.2 24.1 8.9 22.3

16-20 3.5 26.7 5.7 20.9 7.9 18.7

21-25 3.1 23.7 5.0 18.7 7.4 16.3

26-30 2.8 21.5 4.4 17.1 7.1 14.5

31-35 2.6 19.9 4.0 15.9 6.8 13.1

36-40 2.4 18.6 3.5 15.0 6.4 12.1

41-45 2.3 17.5 3.2 14.4 6.2 11.4

46-50 2.2 16.6 2.8 13.8 5.9 10.7

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

[weams]

The slot value alone is more than three million.

[Can_of_corn]

The slot value alone is more than three million.

Would be nice to have the option to spread some of that 3 million to the other two first round picks.

[weams]

Would be nice to have the option to spread some of that 3 million to the other two first round picks.

It gets you a Lance Mccullers Jr. when you do that.

The Houston Astros selected McCullers in the first round, with the 41st overall selection, of the 2012 MLB Draft. He signed with the Astros, receiving a $2.5 million signing bonus.

[Il BuonO]

Gallardo is exactly the pitcher we should be after. Pitches a ton of innings, very consistent, ground ball pitcher. 29 years old. I am very happy we could be getting him!

Nothing against Kazmir, but he's two years older and would give up quite a few more homers at OPACY.

That's quite the crystal ball considering all the evidence you've presented. Gallardo has allowed over 25 HRs twice in his career (27 and 26 respectively in 2011-12) and is a tick better in HR/9 (0.9 to Kazmir 1.0) while Kazmir allowed exactly 25 once while with the Angels when he struggled to rediscover his mechanics. One other time with TB early on he allowed 23, but the difference isn't as glaring as you make it out to be.

Otoh, Kazmir has a better H/9 over the last two years and WHIP.

Kazmir H/9 WHIP Gallardo H/9 WHIP

2014 8.1 1.161 9.1 1.295

2015. 8.0 1.208 9.4 1.416

When similar pitchers are available there's no reason to give up the pick.

[Morgan423]

Poll: picked Kazmir, just because

1) We're replacing a lefty.

2) The difference between the two is worth less than a number 14 pick IMO.

[MikeAD]

That's quite the crystal ball considering all the evidence you've presented. Gallardo has allowed over 25 HRs twice in his career (27 and 26 respectively in 2011-12) and is a tick better in HR/9 (0.9 to Kazmir 1.0) while Kazmir allowed exactly 25 once while with the Angels when he struggled to rediscover his mechanics. One other time with TB early on he allowed 23, but the difference isn't as glaring as you make it out to be.

Otoh, Kazmir has a better H/9 over the last two years and WHIP.

Kazmir H/9 WHIP Gallardo H/9 WHIP

2014 8.1 1.161 9.1 1.295

2015. 8.0 1.208 9.4 1.416

When similar pitchers are available there's no reason to give up the pick.

Their GB/FB ratios indicate otherwise. Don't need a crystal ball to see that.

[weams]

Ground ball pitchers are passe now. It's all about the Ks. And fly-balls are less dangerous post PED era.

[weams]

That's quite the crystal ball considering all the evidence you've presented. Gallardo has allowed over 25 HRs twice in his career (27 and 26 respectively in 2011-12) and is a tick better in HR/9 (0.9 to Kazmir 1.0) while Kazmir allowed exactly 25 once while with the Angels when he struggled to rediscover his mechanics. One other time with TB early on he allowed 23, but the difference isn't as glaring as you make it out to be.

Otoh, Kazmir has a better H/9 over the last two years and WHIP.

Kazmir H/9 WHIP Gallardo H/9 WHIP

2014 8.1 1.161 9.1 1.295

2015. 8.0 1.208 9.4 1.416

When similar pitchers are available there's no reason to give up the pick.

Not concerned about age if we stick to 3 and 4 year deals. 30 and 32? Not too much difference.

[Il BuonO]

Their GB/FB ratios indicate otherwise. Don't need a crystal ball to see that.

Fair enough but the post I quoted cited HRs.

[25 Nuggets]

Ground ball pitchers are passe now. It's all about the Ks. And fly-balls are less dangerous post PED era.

Unless you play for Pittsburgh. :scratchchinhmm:

[weams]

Unless you play for Pittsburgh. :scratchchinhmm:

They did well with them with their Gurus. But one of them is gone now.

[MDtransplant757]

Kazmir because the thought of Matuzs pitching in the rotation as the lefty freaks me out

[Il BuonO]

Not concerned about age if we stick to 3 and 4 year deals. 30 and 32? Not too much difference.

Yeah, I don't think the FO is dealing out anything much longer than that.