2016 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore Orioles

[Phantom]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-zips-projections-baltimore-orioles/

[Frobby]

Interesting reading. I guess I will need to put together my chart comparing all the different projections soon. It's not a very optimistic picture, but with the margin of error in these types of projections, I just read them for fun, not to draw any real conclusions.

[ChicagoTerp]

KG's #1 comp is Jim Beattie. Maybe he'll turn into a below average GM one day.

[DrungoHazewood]

Would be interesting to see how they derived the comps. Chris Davis = Willie Aikens? Aikens had five consecutive 2-2.5 win seasons, topping out at 23 homers, then got caught up in the 80s cocaine scandals and disappeared at 30.

I'll take Schoop as Jeff Kent, but Jones as Vernon Wells is not so good.

[25 Nuggets]

Both Hoes in RF and Paredes/Reimold at DH project to be below replacement. Much room for improvement here.

No surprises - just like I said a week ago, this looks like a 4th place team. 90 losses about right. Orioles are thankfully not done.

[Frobby]

Both Hoes in RF and Paredes/Reimold at DH project to be below replacement. Much room for improvement here.

I don't understand how ZiPS can project Reimold (.759 career OPS, .738 last year) to have a .632 OPS next season. Hoes and Paredes I understand, though I hope ZiPS is wrong.

[mrpennybags]

Would be interesting to see how they derived the comps. Chris Davis = Willie Aikens? Aikens had five consecutive 2-2.5 win seasons, topping out at 23 homers, then got caught up in the 80s cocaine scandals and disappeared at 30.

I'll take Schoop as Jeff Kent, but Jones as Vernon Wells is not so good.

If you smooth out Davis' production, squint real hard and if he's somehow taken down by chewing tobacco over the next couple years I could see it.

[DrungoHazewood]

If you smooth out Davis' production, squint real hard and if he's somehow taken down by chewing tobacco over the next couple years I could see it.

Right, if you completely ignore the fact that Davis has some of the wildest swings in production in recent memory and instead pretend that his career has been a consistent flat average of what he's done since his debut it totally makes sense.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't understand how ZiPS can project Reimold (.759 career OPS, .738 last year) to have a .632 OPS next season. Hoes and Paredes I understand, though I hope ZiPS is wrong.

IBW

He's older then Markakis.

[Number5]

I don't understand how ZiPS can project Reimold (.759 career OPS, .738 last year) to have a .632 OPS next season. Hoes and Paredes I understand, though I hope ZiPS is wrong.

They usually are.

[Frobby]

IBW

He's older then Markakis.

Humor me -- what is IBW?

[Can_of_corn]

Humor me -- what is IBW?

In before Weams.

One of his missions in life is to inform folks that Nolan is older then Nick.

[25 Nuggets]

I remember when both of those guys were prospects.

.....

*checks for gray hairs*

[RVAbird]

I like the numbers on Kim. I think the power projection is on the higher end, but if he matches that production with average defense he'd be a solid average regular in LF.

[weams]

KG's #1 comp is Jim Beattie. Maybe he'll turn into a below average GM one day.

You believe in "comps" that early? Small samples. We'll talk again in three years. What were Jake Arrieta's comps in 2012? How about the comps for Jeremy Hellickson three years ago?