Can the O's sign Manny and Chris Davis long term?

[crawjo]

And I think he can recoup that money by hitting FA three years earlier.

For a guy with two major knee surgeries, I would think a guaranteed $150 million would be enticing. Yes, if he decides he wants to, he can bank on staying healthy and getting more in three years time. Or he could realize that $150 million is more money than God has and that he would still stand to make a fortune when that contract ended, if he was healthy.

[El Gordo]

I understand he's healthy. I'm not concerned about his future health. I bring it up for the arbitration discussions. They heavily weigh past performance. Not being on the field, rightly or wrongly, will negatively affect you. That's why I don't think he touches what Howard made in year 1. That's all.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Injury or no, Howard was worth 11.6 fWAR prior to arb. and Manny 16.5.

[backwardsk]

Injury or no, Howard was worth 11.6 fWAR prior to arb. and Manny 16.5.

Another quirk to the arbitration process is that it usually only factors in ?baseball card statistics? rather than more sophisticated metrics. While teams signing free agents are typically up to speed on sabermetrics, the arbitration process does not account for them. Counting stats are important, as is playing time in general. Since labor lawyers typically sit on arbitration panels, the concept of ?making it to work every day? is something that holds value.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/mlb-trade-rumors-arbitration-model.html

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[weams]

Another quirk to the arbitration process is that it usually only factors in ?baseball card statistics? rather than more sophisticated metrics. While teams signing free agents are typically up to speed on sabermetrics, the arbitration process does not account for them. Counting stats are important, as is playing time in general. Since labor lawyers typically sit on arbitration panels, the concept of ?making it to work every day? is something that holds value.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/mlb-trade-rumors-arbitration-model.html

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thirty-five Home Runs help quite a bit.

[backwardsk]

Thirty-five Home Runs help quite a bit.

It does help. It's not 58 or 47. Decreased run environment? 35 was good for thirteenth, not first or third.

I love Manny. Hope he stays in Baltimore his entire career. He's better than Howard was going into arbitration. I just don't think he'll be rewarded the same.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[thezeroes]

The different statistics that can be used as comparisons for Manny Machado and others with the same skill sets at the same age and service time are:

Albert Pujols

Mike Trout

Andy McCutchen

Jason Heyward

Ryan Braun

Evan Longoria

David Wright

Bryce Harper

These are more comparable than is/was Ryan Howard.

[backwardsk]

The different statistics that can be used as comparisons for Manny Machado and others with the same skill sets at the same age and service time are:

Albert Pujols

Mike Trout

Andy McCutchen

Jason Heyward

Ryan Braun

Evan Longoria

David Wright

Bryce Harper

These are more comparable than is/was Ryan Howard.

How many of these guys went to year 1 of arbitration without signing a long term contract? Longoria didn't. McCutchen didn't. Trout won't. Harper hasn't. You can't use those guys as comparisons when determining what Manny will make in 2016. Howard's name gets tossed out there because, I believe, he made the most in his first year (for position players).

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[thezeroes]

How many of these guys went to year 1 of arbitration without signing a long term contract? Longoria didn't. McCutchen didn't. Trout won't. Harper hasn't. You can't use those guys as comparisons when determining what Manny will make in 2016. Howard's name gets tossed out there because, I believe, he made the most in his first year (for position players).

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You can use them both for a comparison to the length and to the value placed on a a long term deal and also for those that did go to Arbitration, (Pujols, Braun, Heyward and Wright) for the first year of Arbitration Eligibility. The question of the thread was about doing both Davis and Machado long term. I had thought these comparisons would be a good base line IF that was the reason for answering.

[abbott]

It would depend on what the Orioles offer and what the Machado Camp puts out. The issue with Howard was that he won his first Arbitration Case when Philly offered $7 Million and was countered with a $10 Million figure. The Arbitrator picks A ($7 Million or B ($10 Million, not in between.

The Orioles don't lose arbitration and they never settle for the players number. Manny has to be prepared that the Orioles will say things in arbitration that are true but not favorable.

If a long term deal is to be done during the arbitration years, both sides have to give and I don't see either side doing that. The Orioles get a relatively cheap elite player for a few years and Manny will seek a 300 million pay day.

Manny can be an Oriole for the next 12 years, but I don't see the Orioles setting the market and I don't see Manny selling himself short

[Frobby]

Going back to the question posed in the OP, I certainly hope they can afford to extend both Davis and Machado, because it's apparent that they have a pretty high likelihood of extending Davis, and in my mind, they cannot afford NOT to extend Machado. Looking at this objectively, Manny is the rare player who you could sign for $30-35 mm/yr in his post-FA years and he's still likely to provide you excess value. He's pretty clearly established himself as being worth 5-6 WAR per season, which at today's prices (which will only go up) is worth $40-48 mm/yr. So pay the $30-35mm/yr for however long you can convince him to sign up, and enjoy that excess value for as long as you can. Manny is young enough where he could provide excess value for a long time.

As to what he'll earn in his first year of arbitration, I agree he will earn significantly less than Ryan Howard. It's correct that arbitrators put a lot more weight on the traditional HR and RBI stats than sabermetric stats. Howard was coming off a tremendous three-year run in terms of homers and RBI, that Manny can't come close to matching. But I sure hope we don't arbitrate with him. Extend him if you can, pay him $7.5 mm if you can't.

[wildcard]

Going back to the question posed in the OP, I certainly hope they can afford to extend both Davis and Machado, because it's apparent that they have a pretty high likelihood of extending Davis, and in my mind, they cannot afford NOT to extend Machado. Looking at this objectively, Manny is the rare player who you could sign for $30-35 mm/yr in his post-FA years and he's still likely to provide you excess value. He's pretty clearly established himself as being worth 5-6 WAR per season, which at today's prices (which will only go up) is worth $40-48 mm/yr. So pay the $30-35mm/yr for however long you can convince him to sign up, and enjoy that excess value for as long as you can. Manny is young enough where he could provide excess value for a long time.

As to what he'll earn in his first year of arbitration, I agree he will earn significantly less than Ryan Howard. It's correct that arbitrators put a lot more weight on the traditional HR and RBI stats than sabermetric stats. Howard was coming off a tremendous three-year run in terms of homers and RBI, that Manny can't come close to matching. But I sure hope we don't arbitrate with him. Extend him if you can, pay him $7.5 mm if you can't.

I think you have to think about whether the O's can afford to spend 1/3 of their budget of two players. Manny at 35M and Davis at 22. That's 57m out of what may be 150m budget at that point. Seem unlikely. A choice needs to be made. And now is the time to make that choice IMO.

[25 Nuggets]

I think you have to think about whether the O's can afford to spend 1/3 of their budget of two players. Manny at 35M and Davis at 22. That's 57m out of what may be 150m budget at that point. Seem unlikely. A choice needs to be made. And now is the time to make that choice IMO.

The thing is, after a few more years and escalating team budgets, it may be more like 1/4 or even 1/5 of said budget.

Or the baseball bubble can burst I guess but I don't see that happening yet. But anyway if you take a look at team salaries across baseball, you'll see that all of them save the lowest budgets have most of their money invested in some combination of free agent contracts and expensive arbitration cases. The gap between that money and the cost-controlled money is growing larger and larger.

[Frobby]

I think you have to think about whether the O's can afford to spend 1/3 of their budget of two players. Manny at 35M and Davis at 22. That's 57m out of what may be 150m budget at that point. Seem unlikely. A choice needs to be made. And now is the time to make that choice IMO.

That choice would be very obvious. Manny is far more likely to provide excess value compared to Davis. But we don't have the luxury of waiting to see if we can lock up Manny before making a decision on Davis.

I personally feel we can afford both. It's really more a question of whether the Davis contract is worthwhile on a standalone basis.

[Tx Oriole]

Well, I think we should extend them regardless.

I agree with you. Priority should be extending Manny. IMO

[Tx Oriole]

Still, IF ownership is not going to sign him long term, you absolutely must trade him. You cannot let this one go for a comp pick. And the trade must empty out another team's top prospects and at least one controllable major league player.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

What you say makes some sense but the fans would be pissed off. I would be

disgusted with PA and DD.