Who do you want?

[Can_of_corn]

Here's a list of players taken with the #14 pick. Some notables: Jose Fernandez, Jason Heyward, or you could get a Travis Snider

I'd take three years of Travis at 500K a pop.

[Aristotelian]

Here's a list of players taken with the #14 pick. Some notables: Jose Fernandez, Jason Heyward, or you could get a Travis Snider

Lots of good names on that list. Thanks for posting that.

Excluding the most recent four, and counting the negative-WAR players as 0 (since I would not want to weigh making the majors against them), that's about 296 WAR accumulated by 46 players. 6.44 WAR per pick. So arguably the #14 is worth in the neighborhood of $40M.

[DrungoHazewood]

I really hope our signing of Terdoslavich doesn't mean that we are pulling out of the running for Upton or Cespedes.

That was a joke...I hope...

Did that AAA LOOGY from Seattle pull the O's out of the O'Day deal?

Ah... just saw the joke part.

[Aristotelian]

Lots of good names on that list. Thanks for posting that.

Excluding the most recent four, and counting the negative-WAR players as 0 (since I would not want to weigh making the majors against them), that's about 296 WAR accumulated by 46 players. 6.44 WAR per pick. So arguably the #14 is worth in the neighborhood of $40M.

Then again if you look at #30 picks, those guys have also accumulated close to 300 wins (although Mike Schmidt was singlehandedly responsible for over 100) so there may not be a great difference between the #14 and the #30 if we were to sign Upton but let Davis walk.

On the other hand, if we kept the #14 and got back the #30, you could be looking at $80M of future value to go with Cespedes.

[ChuckS]

These picks are like lottery tickets. Trying to put a dollar amount on them when they have a better chance of giving you 0-5 WAR over their career than being a productive everyday player is non-sensical.

[Frobby]

These picks are like lottery tickets. Trying to put a dollar amount on them when they have a better chance of giving you 0-5 WAR over their career than being a productive everyday player is non-sensical.

I don't agree that it's nonsensical. People place a value on hit-or-miss assets all the time. You've got a 50-year track record with which to estimate the odds of getting a productive player at a particular spot in the draft, and you pay accordingly. I'd be extremely surprised if every team hasn't done some form of analysis on what a pick is worth.

[Aristotelian]

The picks are like lottery tickets, in that there is tremendous variation but also tremendous upside. Lottery tickets can still be valuable. The market says that a powerball ticket is worth two bucks. Wieters certainly understands that teams value their picks. The attached pick was a huge factor that would have killed his value and forced him to take the QO.

[TonySoprano]

I don't agree that it's nonsensical. People place a value on hit-or-miss assets all the time. You've got a 50-year track record with which to estimate the odds of getting a productive player at a particular spot in the draft, and you pay accordingly. I'd be extremely surprised if every team hasn't done some form of analysis on what a pick is worth.

It's also common sense that they'd look at the current crop of players and do a mock draft as they do in the NFL and from there weigh the options.

[TheBee]

My position changed over the course of the past two months. Now, sign Upton and Alvarez.

Cespedes is my third choice, but I wouldn't cry over it.

[DrungoHazewood]

The picks are like lottery tickets, in that there is tremendous variation but also tremendous upside. Lottery tickets can still be valuable. The market says that a powerball ticket is worth two bucks. Wieters certainly understands that teams value their picks. The attached pick was a huge factor that would have killed his value and forced him to take the QO.

I'd love a lottery where you win multiple times almost every year, and once a decade or so you get something worth $100M.

[Can_of_corn]

I'd love a lottery where you win multiple times almost every year, and once a decade or so you get something worth $100M.

What I like best about the lottery analogy is that it reduces the draft into a 100% luck based endeavor.

[fastball]

It's time for DD to put this team together.It's starting to look like 2015.Do something,

[Babypowder]

What I like best about the lottery analogy is that it reduces the draft into a 100% luck based endeavor.

Why even participate in the draft? These picks don't pan out anyway. The O's should be innovative and be the first team to see that the draft is worthless and just stop picking guys. They're wasting money. Let the other teams get swindled by these amateurs.

[abbott]

I think all 3 players are flawed. None are 1st tier superstars. But Upton is the better all around player and the least risky. Davis,like most 1 trick ponies, is practically useless without the trick. If he loses a little bat speed, he's in trouble. Cespedes, I agree, may be the most electric, but I don't trust him to have his head on straight for 5 years in a row.

I don't care about dollars, if ownership can't afford to be in business, they should get out. And their customers should tell them.But I don't want Davis for more than 5 years. In a few years someone better will come along and we'll be stuck with an expensive, aging strikeout King who doesn't hit for high average. Will he be Rob Deere in 4 or 5 years?

[crawjo]

I see it this way: if the Orioles don't add one of Upton, Cespedes, and Davis, and at least one starting pitcher, then this offseason makes little sense to me. I don't see the value in signing Darren O'Day to a multiyear deal unless the club was serious about competing for a pennant, and without bolstering the rotation and filling in the gap in the lineup, it is hard to see them competing next year.