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Mark Trumbo agrees to $9.15 million deal to avoid arbitration

xian4

By xian4
in Orioles Talk

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Number5 Hangout Grand Counsel

Number5

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And that's the 6 million dollar question. Where is Trumbo playing? If he's playing first then he has potential for a tiny bit of excess value at 9 million and I'm only mildly agitated that the O's are spending 9 million on him. If Trumbo is mainly the DH, 9 million becomes a pretty big overpay, which is why Seattle moved him.

Based on the current value of a win, in 4 of his 5 years, 9 million for Trumbo would have been a bargain -- and most of them were in the outfield with negative dWAR. Meanwhile, Carter would have been overpaid by quite a bit at $3 million in three of his six seasons, with another season breaking even. History tells us that the odds of Trumbo being worth his contract in 2016 clearly exceed the odds of Carter being worth his. Fortunately, Carter is someone else's problem, and not a concern for us.

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Babypowder Hangout Veteran Council

Babypowder

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Based on the current value of a win, in 4 of his 5 years, 9 million for Trumbo would have been a bargain -- and most of them were in the outfield with negative dWAR. Meanwhile, Carter would have been overpaid by quite a bit at $3 million in three of his six seasons, with another season breaking even. History tells us that the odds of Trumbo being worth his contract in 2016 clearly exceed the odds of Carter being worth his. Fortunately, Carter is someone else's problem, and not a concern for us.

As I said, if Trumbo is playing defense he's the better option.

Also, paying sub 2-win players FA market rates is not something I'd advocate, but it is only for 1 year. Trumbo's ceiling is league average player, and you're paying basically full market value for it.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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As I said, if Trumbo is playing defense he's the better option.

Also, paying sub 2-win players FA market rates is not something I'd advocate, but it is only for 1 year. Trumbo's ceiling is league average player, and you're paying basically full market value for it.

I think his (reasonable) ceiling is about three wins. That's where he'd be if he hit like 2012 and spent most of the year at first and put up something like his career +6 UZR/150 there.

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Phantom Major Leaguer

Phantom

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Also, paying sub 2-win players FA market rates is not something I'd advocate, but it is only for 1 year. Trumbo's ceiling is league average player, and you're paying basically full market value for it.

This is how I feel. Not a good deal. Not a bad deal. Mediocre one year deals are nothing to freak out over.

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Babypowder Hangout Veteran Council

Babypowder

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I think his (reasonable) ceiling is about three wins. That's where he'd be if he hit like 2012 and spent most of the year at first and put up something like his career +6 UZR/150 there.

2012 looks like a pretty obvious outlier, but I suppose you're right. I'm pegging him for his career 108 wRC+ and averagish defense at first. That's probably a 1.5 win player.

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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I'm also optimistic. I think the 1-2 punch of being traded on the very unusual June 3rd date and Safeco freaked him out and he was on walkabout for a month.

He recovered decently. With respect to him vs. Alvarez and Carter, can't believe the stat I am about to cite here but...

Career batting average:

Trumbo .250

Alvarez .236

Carter .217

Not sure precisely how this maps to the scouting scale, but to me, this is the difference between a 45 bat, a 40 bat, a 30-35 bat.

The closer to the edge of complete major league unplayability your bat teeters, the more likely your power, however colossal, is completely irrelevant.

Especially vs. Carter, I think Trumbo's tremendously more likely to be an effective performer. Alvarez is the middle case.

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25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

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Do you want your starting 1b or DH to put up a .750 OPS and a 0.8 WAR (a -1.1 WAR the year before)? That puts him about 15-17th in the rankings of 1b.....

Trumbo was worth 1.6 rWAR last year. Half in Arizona and half in Seattle.

2011 - 2.9

2012 - 2.5

2013 - 2.1

2014 - (-1.1)

2015 - 1.6

It's fair to say 2014 is the aberration. It came with a stress fracture in his left foot.

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25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

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Isnt Trumbo a bench bat at this point? I agree, all things equal you take Trumbo over Carter...but they arent equal, there is a decent sized salary difference

Trumbo is an average starting first baseman in this league, I would say. Carter is a bench bat, especially in the National League where he will be playing in Milwaukee.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Trumbo is an average starting first baseman in this league, I would say. Carter is a bench bat, especially in the National League where he will be playing in Milwaukee.

Carter is about as good a bat as Trumbo. But he can't really field anywhere, at all, so he takes a huge hit in value. Either he's a pretty poor DH, or a 1B with a big negative glove. In the NL they have to play him in the field, or use him as a PH. So far in his career he's 3-for-26 with 14 Ks and 7 BBs pinch hitting.

Actually, his DH numbers are good. So you could squint and rationalize and pretend the sample size is enough that he's one of those guys who doesn't take a DH penalty. So in the NL he might have outsized value in those handful of road interleague games.

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LookitsPuck Hangout Grand Counsel

LookitsPuck

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$9.15 mm is slightly more than I hoped we'd pay, but not materially more than I expected.

I consider Trumbo to be much better than Chris Carter. I think he'll maul in OPACY.

Let's hope so, because his career numbers at OPACY are a disaster. Granted, that's only 10 games, but still.

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