25 Nuggets Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The Orioles have made the offer to Cespedes, and we shall see if he takes it soon. So here is how he might look. Career - .271/.319/.486 (.805) - 122 OPS+ Cespedes is more than just a bat, but we will focus on offensive numbers. vs RHP - .278/.318/.493 (.811) vs LHP - .252/.322/.466 (.788) Cespedes is yet another righty, and I hope the Orioles are still looking for a left handed bat, but he doesn't cost the team vs RHP. He has a reverse split. Like most regulars he faces more righties than lefties. Home - .270/.328/.472 (.800) Away - .271/.311/.499 (.810) Cespedes has primarily played in pitchers parks (OAK, DET, NYM) but his home/road splits are pretty even. If you translate a 122 OPS+ from last year to Camden Yards, you get an .830 OPS. In wins - .305/.352/.563 (.915) In losses - .218/.269/.369 (.638) You expect any player to do better in wins, but I think this is telling. Cespedes matters for the team he plays for, and rates well in win probability added. The good news is, teams are 334-229 in games he starts for them. Empty - .255/.302/.467 (.768) Men on - .289/.339/.509 (.847) RISP - .305/.365/.517 (.881) RISP 2 outs - .292/.355/.485 (.840) Again, Cespedes rates well here. You want him with men on base. The more pitchers don't want to pitch to him, the better he does. Unfortunately like so many Oriole hitters, he won't get on base all that much himself. Check this out: Within 4 R - .276/.329/.499 (.828) Margin >4R - .238/.255/.407 (.663) High leverage - .315/.367/.554 (.921) Low leverage - .249/.291/.443 (.734) Cespedes does poorly in garbage time. You can take this positively and say he turns in on in high leverage situations, or negatively and say he has a tendency to become disinterested. Vs Power - .233/.302/.423 (.724) Vs Finesse - .306/.343/.560 (.903) We complain sometimes when the Orioles face the proverbial "crafty lefty". Cespedes can solve that. He can be blown away by a strikeout pitcher but kills contact pitchers. He is a line drive and fly ball hitter. GB% 38.7 (ML average 44%) FB% 37.3 (ML average 35%) LD% 24.0 (ML average 21%) -------- All this points to him being a good fit with the Orioles. I used to say that where he plays, his teams did better and I thought from the start that Oakland made a mistake in trading him when they did. Provided he fits in the clubhouse he is going to create wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.