Yoenis Cespedes by splits

[25 Nuggets]

The Orioles have made the offer to Cespedes, and we shall see if he takes it soon. So here is how he might look.

Career - .271/.319/.486 (.805) - 122 OPS+

Cespedes is more than just a bat, but we will focus on offensive numbers.

vs RHP - .278/.318/.493 (.811)

vs LHP - .252/.322/.466 (.788)

Cespedes is yet another righty, and I hope the Orioles are still looking for a left handed bat, but he doesn't cost the team vs RHP. He has a reverse split. Like most regulars he faces more righties than lefties.

Home - .270/.328/.472 (.800)

Away - .271/.311/.499 (.810)

Cespedes has primarily played in pitchers parks (OAK, DET, NYM) but his home/road splits are pretty even. If you translate a 122 OPS+ from last year to Camden Yards, you get an .830 OPS.

In wins - .305/.352/.563 (.915)

In losses - .218/.269/.369 (.638)

You expect any player to do better in wins, but I think this is telling. Cespedes matters for the team he plays for, and rates well in win probability added. The good news is, teams are 334-229 in games he starts for them.

Empty - .255/.302/.467 (.768)

Men on - .289/.339/.509 (.847)

RISP - .305/.365/.517 (.881)

RISP 2 outs - .292/.355/.485 (.840)

Again, Cespedes rates well here. You want him with men on base. The more pitchers don't want to pitch to him, the better he does. Unfortunately like so many Oriole hitters, he won't get on base all that much himself. Check this out:

Within 4 R - .276/.329/.499 (.828)

Margin >4R - .238/.255/.407 (.663)

High leverage - .315/.367/.554 (.921)

Low leverage - .249/.291/.443 (.734)

Cespedes does poorly in garbage time. You can take this positively and say he turns in on in high leverage situations, or negatively and say he has a tendency to become disinterested.

Vs Power - .233/.302/.423 (.724)

Vs Finesse - .306/.343/.560 (.903)

We complain sometimes when the Orioles face the proverbial "crafty lefty". Cespedes can solve that. He can be blown away by a strikeout pitcher but kills contact pitchers.

He is a line drive and fly ball hitter.

GB% 38.7 (ML average 44%)

FB% 37.3 (ML average 35%)

LD% 24.0 (ML average 21%)

--------

All this points to him being a good fit with the Orioles. I used to say that where he plays, his teams did better and I thought from the start that Oakland made a mistake in trading him when they did. Provided he fits in the clubhouse he is going to create wins.

[scOtt]

[InsideCoroner]

Thanks, nice work. Especially good to know that he hits RHP better. I'm on board.

[Going Underground]

Some other analysis from a geek stat guy:

The term shouldn’t scare away teams, but the amount of money per year can become a cause for concern because chances are we have seen the best of what Cespedes has to offer.

Cespedes produced 6.7 wins above replacement in 2015, months before he celebrated his 30th birthday, and Steamer projections have his 2016 campaign looking more like his first three seasons in the league than his last: .266 with 27 home runs, 89 RBI and 3.1 wins above replacement.

There are a few reasons for the regression. The first is Cespedes enjoyed a higher than normal batting average on balls in play. The league average BABIP is .299, Cespedes was at .323 in 2015.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2015/12/04/yoenis-cespedes-is-not-a-100-million-player/

[25 Nuggets]

Nice link. Even with regression, Steamer says he'll be worth about $90 mil over the next five years, and that's the offer we see. Considering how many FA players are overpaid (offset by cost controlled players), it's a good deal for Cespedes.

[Frobby]

Very interesting post. Most of those splits are positive from the standpoint of our needs. Should hit better in OPACY than he did in the Oakland Colliseum, hits both RHP and LHP well, and does well when it counts.

I will pick nits with one of the statements in the OP:

In wins - .305/.352/.563 (.915)

In losses - .218/.269/.369 (.638)

You expect any player to do better in wins, but I think this is telling.

No, not really. The average split (2015 AL) is .850 in wins, .601 in losses, a 249 point spread. Cespedes has a 277 point spread, which is pretty much in the normal range.

The number that stood out to me was:

Within 4 R - .276/.329/.499 (.828)

Margin >4R - .238/.255/.407 (.663)

That is highly unusual. The average was .726 within 4 runs, .752 when higher than four runs. He clearly seems to coast when a game is out of hand. Or, you can turn it around and say he can turn it up a notch in meaningful situations. These are reflected in his high/low leverage splits.

Offensively, the more I think about him the more I see him as a slightly better version of Adam Jones. Their raw stats are quite similar, and when you adjust for ballpark, Cespedes is the better hitter by a reasonable margin (122 OPS+ vs. 109 OPS+ for their careers).

[canonfaz]

Nice post. I just looked up his OPACY stats. I thought they would be better.

He has a carrer OPS of .741 in 72PA in Baltimore.

[Tx Oriole]

The Orioles have made the offer to Cespedes, and we shall see if he takes it soon. So here is how he might look.

Career - .271/.319/.486 (.805) - 122 OPS+

Cespedes is more than just a bat, but we will focus on offensive numbers.

vs RHP - .278/.318/.493 (.811)

vs LHP - .252/.322/.466 (.788)

Cespedes is yet another righty, and I hope the Orioles are still looking for a left handed bat, but he doesn't cost the team vs RHP. He has a reverse split. Like most regulars he faces more righties than lefties.

Home - .270/.328/.472 (.800)

Away - .271/.311/.499 (.810)

Cespedes has primarily played in pitchers parks (OAK, DET, NYM) but his home/road splits are pretty even. If you translate a 122 OPS+ from last year to Camden Yards, you get an .830 OPS.

In wins - .305/.352/.563 (.915)

In losses - .218/.269/.369 (.638)

You expect any player to do better in wins, but I think this is telling. Cespedes matters for the team he plays for, and rates well in win probability added. The good news is, teams are 334-229 in games he starts for them.

Empty - .255/.302/.467 (.768)

Men on - .289/.339/.509 (.847)

RISP - .305/.365/.517 (.881)

RISP 2 outs - .292/.355/.485 (.840)

Again, Cespedes rates well here. You want him with men on base. The more pitchers don't want to pitch to him, the better he does. Unfortunately like so many Oriole hitters, he won't get on base all that much himself. Check this out:

Within 4 R - .276/.329/.499 (.828)

Margin >4R - .238/.255/.407 (.663)

High leverage - .315/.367/.554 (.921)

Low leverage - .249/.291/.443 (.734)

Cespedes does poorly in garbage time. You can take this positively and say he turns in on in high leverage situations, or negatively and say he has a tendency to become disinterested.

Vs Power - .233/.302/.423 (.724)

Vs Finesse - .306/.343/.560 (.903)

We complain sometimes when the Orioles face the proverbial "crafty lefty". Cespedes can solve that. He can be blown away by a strikeout pitcher but kills contact pitchers.

He is a line drive and fly ball hitter.

GB% 38.7 (ML average 44%)

FB% 37.3 (ML average 35%)

LD% 24.0 (ML average 21%)

--------

All this points to him being a good fit with the Orioles. I used to say that where he plays, his teams did better and I thought from the start that Oakland made a mistake in trading him when they did. Provided he fits in the clubhouse he is going to create wins.

Goodness I am getting excited. Hope I am not let down.

[scanfish]

Brilliant Sign Him

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[gmelson26]

At this stage of the game, I want him over Davis/Upton and then Latos (hoping 2015 was an aberration).

[Tony-OH]

Excellent stat post (rep your way).

I'm for adding Cespedes if the money and years are right. I think he's a better bet to be consistent than Davis though Davis brings a bigger upside. Saying that, if Cespedes can be had in the 5/90 range I'm all in.

[Pickles]

Very interesting post. Most of those splits are positive from the standpoint of our needs. Should hit better in OPACY than he did in the Oakland Colliseum, hits both RHP and LHP well, and does well when it counts.

I will pick nits with one of the statements in the OP:

No, not really. The average split (2015 AL) is .850 in wins, .601 in losses, a 249 point spread. Cespedes has a 277 point spread, which is pretty much in the normal range.

The number that stood out to me was:

That is highly unusual. The average was .726 within 4 runs, .752 when higher than four runs. He clearly seems to coast when a game is out of hand. Or, you can turn it around and say he can turn it up a notch in meaningful situations. These are reflected in his high/low leverage splits.

Offensively, the more I think about him the more I see him as a slightly better version of Adam Jones. Their raw stats are quite similar, and when you adjust for ballpark, Cespedes is the better hitter by a reasonable margin (122 OPS+ vs. 109 OPS+ for their careers).

Those numbers are distorted by the fact that Jones debuted at 20 and Cepedes at 26.

Going forward, they're likely very similar offensively.

And there's nothing wrong w that.

[Ruzious]

There are a few reasons for the regression. The first is Cespedes enjoyed a higher than normal batting average on balls in play. The league average BABIP is .299, Cespedes was at .323 in 2015.

Is that a correct conclusion, or do some players typically have higher BABIP's than others simply because the balls they put in play are typically hit harder or with more skill than the average player?

[Pickles]

Is that a correct conclusion, or do some players typically have higher BABIP's than others simply because the balls they put in play are typically hit harder or with more skill than the average player?

It's not.

Those numbers are affected my the things you mention, as well as speed, as well as batted ball type, as well handedness.

Cespedes is not going to be a 6 win player going forward.

Luckily, nobody is paying him to be.

[stef]

is that a correct conclusion, or do some players typically have higher babip's than others simply because the balls they put in play are typically hit harder or with more skill than the average player?

babip/ld%

2012 .326 / 19.6%

2013 .274 / 16.7%

2014 .293 / 18.4%

2015 .323 / 20.4%