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The 2016 Offensive Projections Thread


Frobby

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I expect Schoop to perform well north of those numbers - closer to .800 OPS. I would definitely not expect Manny to exceed last year's numbers. He should be expected to regress a little bit and consolidate at a new plateau. He has plenty of years to continue to take additional steps before he reaches his peak years.

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For what it is worth Rotographs did a Kim projection.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/projecting-byung-ho-park-and-hyun-soo-kim-the-results/

Fantasy stats only naturally.

In the comments section there's a discussion of Kim's park factors last year and it seems he played in the PETCO of Korea, with HR park factors below 90. Last year he hit 11 homers at home, 17 on the road.

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For what it is worth Rotographs did a Kim projection.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/projecting-byung-ho-park-and-hyun-soo-kim-the-results/

Fantasy stats only naturally.

Batting .282, 13 HR in 533 PA, 13.2% K rate, I would be very happy with that. That's probably around a .350 OBP and slugging north of .400.

I think if Kim hits .282 over here, his OBP will probably be more in the .360-.370 range. I agree with you that the SLG would likely be a touch north of .400. I could dig a .760-.780 OPS. That would be great value.

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I think if Kim hits .282 over here, his OBP will probably be more in the .360-.370 range. I agree with you that the SLG would likely be a touch north of .400. I could dig a .760-.780 OPS. That would be great value.

Both of the projections in the comments put his OBP right around .350. I'd take that.

Edit: In the KBO he's slashed .318/.406/.488. If you cut the 36 points off his BA he's OBPing .370. I have to assume his walk rate goes down quite a bit transitioning to the majors. I'll be very happy with a .350.

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Both of the projections in the comments put his OBP right around .350. I'd take that.

Edit: In the KBO he's slashed .318/.406/.488. If you cut the 36 points off his BA he's OBPing .370. I have to assume his walk rate goes down quite a bit transitioning to the majors. I'll be very happy with a .350.

I'd be happy with that, too. My thinking was that if Kim was able to bat that high, his OBP probably would degrade roughly proportionately. That would put him in the .360 ballpark. But it's all guesswork anyway. I'd sign in blood for .282/.350/.400 right now.

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In the comments section there's a discussion of Kim's park factors last year and it seems he played in the PETCO of Korea, with HR park factors below 90. Last year he hit 11 homers at home, 17 on the road.

and Yammaico Navarro who couldn't cut it in the majors hit 40. Maybe he played in the Rogers Center of the KBO

Then there is that Thames guy that Tony mentioned that also hit like Babe Ruth in the KBO

Be pulling for Kim, but don't expect much at all. Hope he is serviceable defensively

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and Yammaico Navarro who couldn't cut it in the majors hit 40. Maybe he played in the Rogers Center of the KBO

Then there is that Thames guy that Tony mentioned that also hit like Babe Ruth in the KBO

Be pulling for Kim, but don't expect much at all. Hope he is serviceable defensively

Luckily the Orioles have scouting reports and people who can do math, so they're not forced into vague comparisons to casually related players. Do you have any facts to support Kim underperforming a .750-ish OPS, or just your general dislike for all transactions the Orioles make?

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  • 2 months later...

Updating this with the following changes:

- PECOTA added

- Alvarez and Rickard added

- Urrutia and Paredes dropped

- Kim's PA allocation reduced significantly

- Certain projections for Kim added (all very optimistic seeming now that we've seen what happened this spring, but at the same time, Rickard's projections look a bit pessimistic)

The projections are much more bullish, with these changes. Probably a bit too bullish IMO.

Player 	PA	BJames	Sh'dler	ZiPS	Steamer	Marcel	R-champ	PECOTADavis	600	0.862	0.877	0.906	0.796	0.867	0.853	0.858Schoop	550	0.698	0.726	0.737	0.721	0.721	0.704	0.721Hardy	500	0.658	0.634	0.641	0.643	0.664	0.639	0.689Machado	650	0.846	0.821	0.856	0.829	0.824	0.825	0.803Jones 	600	0.799	0.786	0.791	0.775	0.783	0.786	0.798Wieters	450	0.752	0.764	0.735	0.712	0.736	0.722	0.756Joseph	250	0.695	0.687	0.674	0.654	0.689	0.656	0.699Trumbo	500	0.764	0.748	0.796	0.768	0.739	0.753	0.782Reimold	250	0.749	0.701	0.632	0.697	0.706	0.655	0.717Flah'ty	250	0.677	0.665	0.664	0.663	0.671	0.641	0.681Alvarez	475	0.775	0.759	0.766	0.833	0.775	0.769	0.747Rickard	450	0.658	0.658	0.616	0.681	0.658	0.679	0.658Kim	175	0.701	0.701	0.765	0.757	0.701	0.688	0.701Others	450	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651TOTAL	6150	0.746	0.740	0.746	0.737	0.740	0.732	0.744
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The projections are much more bullish, with these changes. Probably a bit too bullish IMO.

I think a .740-ish OPS is about right. the team OPSed .728 last year and I think they're quite a bit better.

Last year a .744 OPS would have been fourth in the AL (NY Yankees).

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  • 6 months later...
Updating this with the following changes:

- PECOTA added

- Alvarez and Rickard added

- Urrutia and Paredes dropped

- Kim's PA allocation reduced significantly

- Certain projections for Kim added (all very optimistic seeming now that we've seen what happened this spring, but at the same time, Rickard's projections look a bit pessimistic)

The projections are much more bullish, with these changes. Probably a bit too bullish IMO.

Player 	PA	BJames	Sh'dler	ZiPS	Steamer	Marcel	R-champ	PECOTADavis	600	0.862	0.877	0.906	0.796	0.867	0.853	0.858Schoop	550	0.698	0.726	0.737	0.721	0.721	0.704	0.721Hardy	500	0.658	0.634	0.641	0.643	0.664	0.639	0.689Machado	650	0.846	0.821	0.856	0.829	0.824	0.825	0.803Jones 	600	0.799	0.786	0.791	0.775	0.783	0.786	0.798Wieters	450	0.752	0.764	0.735	0.712	0.736	0.722	0.756Joseph	250	0.695	0.687	0.674	0.654	0.689	0.656	0.699Trumbo	500	0.764	0.748	0.796	0.768	0.739	0.753	0.782Reimold	250	0.749	0.701	0.632	0.697	0.706	0.655	0.717Flah'ty	250	0.677	0.665	0.664	0.663	0.671	0.641	0.681Alvarez	475	0.775	0.759	0.766	0.833	0.775	0.769	0.747Rickard	450	0.658	0.658	0.616	0.681	0.658	0.679	0.658Kim	175	0.701	0.701	0.765	0.757	0.701	0.688	0.701Others	450	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651TOTAL	6150	0.746	0.740	0.746	0.737	0.740	0.732	0.744

Bill James, ZiPS and PECOTA all came pretty close to the Orioles' .760 OPS this year, if you adjust for the fact that the league OPS was up 14 points over 2014.

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Bill James, ZiPS and PECOTA all came pretty close to the Orioles' .760 OPS this year, if you adjust for the fact that the league OPS was up 14 points over 2014.

Always fun to look back at season projections after the season is over. None of the projections accounted for MLB tightening the ball (or whatever they did) to promote offense.

Baltimore OPSed .760, good for third in the AL, and yet their OPS+ was only 99. Camden Yards park factor was an average 101. Something doesn't seem right there.

Toronto OPSed .755, had an OPS+ of 100, and their park factor was 110. How does that compute?

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Always fun to look back at season projections after the season is over. None of the projections accounted for MLB tightening the ball (or whatever they did) to promote offense.

Baltimore OPSed .760, good for third in the AL, and yet their OPS+ was only 99. Camden Yards park factor was an average 101. Something doesn't seem right there.

Toronto OPSed .755, had an OPS+ of 100, and their park factor was 110. How does that compute?

Muti-year park effects? OPACY was a little better hitter's park (105 v 102) over three years.

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Always fun to look back at season projections after the season is over. None of the projections accounted for MLB tightening the ball (or whatever they did) to promote offense.

Baltimore OPSed .760, good for third in the AL, and yet their OPS+ was only 99. Camden Yards park factor was an average 101. Something doesn't seem right there.

Toronto OPSed .755, had an OPS+ of 100, and their park factor was 110. How does that compute?

Great question.

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