Who Is A Better Fit For Orioles: Doug Fister, Yovani Gallardo or Mat Latos?

[backwardsk]

You're really good at misreading things bro

My point is that if a team like the Astros, who rely as much on advanced statistics as any team in the league and have a good reputation for doing so, maybe it isn't as bad as I thought. But keep on going with that subpar reading comprehension.

Their farm is well stocked. They could absorb the loss of a first rounder better than Baltimore.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[25 Nuggets]

With the pick that's about 3/10.

The #14 pick is worth $20 mil over three years?

[weams]

For sure. Some people would say league minimum. I'd say something like what Fister is asking for (2 yr, $22 mil). The market would say something like 4 yr, $60 mil.

He's gotta actually be worth close to the 96 Chen got if you are looking at the pitching market

[weams]

The #14 pick is worth $20 mil over three years?

Over the length of any contract. The value of a#`4 pick is somewhere north of 20 million during club control. Not including what the Arb says you pay them if they are really good.

[25 Nuggets]

Over the length of any contract. The value of a#`4 pick is somewhere north of 20 million during club control. Not including what the Arb says you pay them if they are really good.

Is that average or median?

[TradeAngelos]

Is that average or median?

Olney said teams are valuing it at around 10m.

[25 Nuggets]

Just because we're on the subject, here are the #14 picks from 2000-2011 in the MLB amateur draft:

2000 - BAL - Beau Hale - minors

2001 - SDP - Jake Gautreau - minors

2002 - TOR - Russ Adams (-0.0)

2003 - CIN - Ryan Wagner (-0.3)

2004 - KCR - Billy Butler (11.5)

2005 - CLE - Trevor Crowe (0.0)

2006 - TOR - Travis Snider (4.6)

2007 - ATL - Jason Heyward (31.2)

2008 - MIN - Aaron Hicks (2.2)

2009 - TEX - Matt Purke (minors)

2010 - MIL - Dylan Covey (minors)

2011 - MIA - Jose Fernandez (9.6)

2012-2015 picks haven't reached the majors yet. I see three successful picks, maybe five if you include Snider and Hicks, out of twelve.

[backwardsk]

I'm just saying it might not be a complete disaster if we sign him like I think it would be. Houston does their due diligence. Look how quickly their plan came to fruition. They usually draft/sign/trade for the right guys.

I don't discount your observation. I'm not against signing him.

I wouldn't give him Chen or Samardijia money, but I wouldn't write him off completely like others on here.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[weams]

Just because we're on the subject, here are the #14 picks from 2000-2011 in the MLB amateur draft:

2000 - BAL - Beau Hale - minors

2001 - SDP - Jake Gautreau - minors

2002 - TOR - Russ Adams (-0.0)

2003 - CIN - Ryan Wagner (-0.3)

2004 - KCR - Billy Butler (11.5)

2005 - CLE - Trevor Crowe (0.0)

2006 - TOR - Travis Snider (4.6)

2007 - ATL - Jason Heyward (31.2)

2008 - MIN - Aaron Hicks (2.2)

2009 - TEX - Matt Purke (minors)

2010 - MIL - Dylan Covey (minors)

2011 - MIA - Jose Fernandez (9.6)

2012-2015 picks haven't reached the majors yet. I see three successful picks, maybe five if you include Snider and Hicks, out of twelve.

I guess based on that then, the average value of those picks would be ~ 40 million. Right?

[Il BuonO]

Silver lining: at least it's not an udder disaster. Can you imagine? In Baltimore, in August? Gross.

(and this is why I usually leave optimism to other people)

As opposed to the utter disaster that signing Davis will have on the rest of the roster? Well, I'm in Texas and udders in August is a common sight, but the smell that accompanies the animals at that time of year could be considered on a par with the Orioles decision making process.

Optimists need not apply....

[Number5]

You're really good at misreading things bro

My point is that if a team like the Astros, who rely as much on advanced statistics as any team in the league and have a good reputation for doing so, maybe it isn't as bad as I thought. But keep on going with that subpar reading comprehension.

So that would be a "yes"?

Hey, to me Gallardo is a bad idea, whether the Orioles are interested or not, and whether the Astros are interested or not. To change one's stance either way because one team or another has expressed interest doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. To me, some type of fact or circumstance being different than what I first thought might well change my mind, but not a preconceived notion of the relative value of one man's opinion or another's. But that's just me. I'm not saying that is right or wrong - just that I would not be swayed by the Houston Astros' opinion alone, with no information behind the opinion. I could see a possible exception when the team expressing the opinion is a current or former team of the player involved, since that team would more than likely be privy to the most information about the player. The Nationals' relegation of Fister to the bullpen and lack of interest in signing him this off-season, for example, is worth noting, IMO.

But feel free to go ahead and insult me and question my ability to read. That certainly strengthens your point.

[25 Nuggets]

I guess based on that then, the average value of those picks would be ~ 40 million. Right?

That's why I asked "average or median?" No matter what pick you select in the first round, over the span of a decade or so, the top 2-4 players lap the field several times over.

[MurphDogg]

Just because we're on the subject, here are the #14 picks from 2000-2011 in the MLB amateur draft:

2000 - BAL - Beau Hale - minors

2001 - SDP - Jake Gautreau - minors

2002 - TOR - Russ Adams (-0.0)

2003 - CIN - Ryan Wagner (-0.3)

2004 - KCR - Billy Butler (11.5)

2005 - CLE - Trevor Crowe (0.0)

2006 - TOR - Travis Snider (4.6)

2007 - ATL - Jason Heyward (31.2)

2008 - MIN - Aaron Hicks (2.2)

2009 - TEX - Matt Purke (minors)

2010 - MIL - Dylan Covey (minors)

2011 - MIA - Jose Fernandez (9.6)

2012-2015 picks haven't reached the majors yet. I see three successful picks, maybe five if you include Snider and Hicks, out of twelve.

Looking at the 12-16 picks as well, it looks like there is about a 15 percent chance that the #14 pick is an All-Star, a 25 percent chance he is an MLB contributor an a 60 percent chance he does nothing.

[weams]

2. The Astros are certainly looking at those statistics, plus a bunch of other ridiculously advanced things that we don't have at our disposal

Actually, The Orioles do. And Sarah is a future GM. Of a very advanced franchise.

[Number5]

I guess I'll just break it down this way:

1. I personally think signing Gallardo would be dumb, in part because of his K rate falling off a cliff and the fact that he outpitched his FIP by a sizable amount. Not to mention the whole giving up more hits than innings pitched thing.

2. The Astros are certainly looking at those statistics, plus a bunch of other ridiculously advanced things that we don't have at our disposal

3. Despite those three red flags, they still deem him someone worth going after, which makes me re-think my opinion.

It's not crazy to follow the lead of teams that clearly know what they're doing. Look at all the NBA teams that try to copy the Spurs.

We are in agreement on point 1.

I can neither agree nor disagree with point 2. Although I know that a ST.Louis Cardinal official hacked into the Astros' database, I have no information as to its value, relative to that of other teams. My limited understanding of that incident is that it was more a case of just guessing that the former Cardinal employee just kept his same password, which he did, enabled the access. I don't recall where the motivation was based on a believe of superiority of the Astros' system any moreso than just a curiosity of how the Astros view the various prospects. If there was more to it, I am not aware of it. I am certain that all teams have their own proprietary metrics and databases, but I couldn't possibly begin to rank them.

Point 3 is where we differ, as the Astros' opinion on a player doesn't sway me one way or another, based on the opinion alone, with no supporting facts.