The Pessimistic View

[Frobby]

No need to be sorry. But running Bud out there instead of someone else all season definitely hurt that club. And the 9 game losing streak killed it.

Bud only started 11 games. The O's went 4-7 in those games. Not helpful, but not the season-killer some have made it out to be.

In answer to the OP, there's a lot of variation in player performance from one year to the next. So yes, I expect different results. Whether that will be for good or bad, I don't know.

[tntoriole]

I haven't felt this unenthused about the team since before 2012. So maybe I'll be wrong again and we will win 96.

One thing different from 2012 is that there's not much upside left in a lot of guys unlike projecting for 2012. The backend rotation pieces aren't exciting and pretty much everyone else is a known quantity but one year older. Feels like a team that won 81 and will regress.

Looking forward to Schoop this year though.

Too many variables to predict results these days. It is not like back in the days of baseball dynasties. When the Orioles were winning in the late 60s and 70s or the Oakland As in the 1970s, those types of teams did not have the problems of free agency and huge budgetary issues. But now, teams can and do go from last to first almost every season. This year, I am excited, but then I am always excited! Who knows? Maybe Kevin Gausman sets the world on fire? Maybe Tyler Wilson turns into a Mike Boddicker. Maybe Dylan Bundy stays healthy and turns into a quality contributor. Maybe Jonathan Schoop turns into a Robinson Cano. Or Matt has a walk off year that is amazing. Or you could have injuries to key players, Chris Davis could hit under .200 and hit 25 homers, Tillman could pitch badly again, Zach could lose his sinker. Any of these are possible. Which is what makes playing the games both necessary and makes a baseball season a unique journey every single year.

[Tx Oriole]

minus Chen' date=' plus Trumbo and Kim? Should we expect different results?[/quote']

I hope they do better. Chen hasn't been replaced yet.

[wildcard]

I haven't felt this unenthused about the team since before 2012. So maybe I'll be wrong again and we will win 96.

One thing different from 2012 is that there's not much upside left in a lot of guys unlike projecting for 2012. The backend rotation pieces aren't exciting and pretty much everyone else is a known quantity but one year older. Feels like a team that won 81 and will regress.

Looking forward to Schoop this year though.

I don't see it that way. Manny, Schoop and Gausman are not at their peak yet. Davis, Jones, Britton and Wieters are in their prime and Wieters should be healthy all year. Trumbo is bound to be better than Parades. Tillman has a good chance of rebounding at 28 years old.

Two rookies that seem to have a lot of up side is Givens and Mike Wright. Wright went 9-1 with a 2.22 ERA at Norfolk. He is learning as the major league level but he normally struggle before he improves.

There is a lot to look forward to this season. And I am sure their will be players that surprise.

Hope springs eternal.

[thezeroes]

I hope they do better. Chen hasn't been replaced yet.

Wei-Yen Chen's production or lack there of has been replaced against the Blue Jays. He (Chen) had no innings against this division rival and was protected from what Chris Tillman had to go through with that lineup that the Blue Jays put out every day.

[Ohfan67]

Bud only started 11 games. The O's went 4-7 in those games. Not helpful, but not the season-killer some have made it out to be.

In answer to the OP, there's a lot of variation in player performance from one year to the next. So yes, I expect different results. Whether that will be for good or bad, I don't know.

And, of course somebody not named Bud will underperform this year. Tillman and/or Gonzalez could easily lay a big egg this year.

[Ripken]

We should. We have at least 2 good OF's.

Jones and ?

[MDtransplant757]

Jones and ?

Kim

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[Ripken]

Kim

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We have a long way to go before we know if Kim is even capable of playing in the major leagues.

[Br10n]

And, of course somebody not named Bud will underperform this year. Tillman and/or Gonzalez could easily lay a big egg this year.

And there will be players that out perform expectations....hopefully Groundhog Day from 2014

[MDtransplant757]

We have a long way to go before we know if Kim is even capable of playing in the major leagues.

We'll see in a week- a month

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[TouchemAll]

Hard to be optimistic looking at our rotation with Chen gone.

There's no doubt to be competitive, Gausman, Tilman, Gonzo, and DA U must step it up from 2015 form.

[Stotle]

Letting guys go to free agency instead of signing them before they hit FA seemed like a bad bet for the O's. But they back and the chance to contend is still within their reach is health permits.

It's a bad bet because you have to pay way more. That hasn't changed. No one signed-on for a discount -- they all tested the market and got as much as they could out of Baltimore. Same-ish team but much more expensive.

[Pheasants]

Hard to be optimistic looking at our rotation with Chen gone.

There's no doubt to be competitive, Gausman, Tilman, Gonzo, and DA U must step it up from 2015 form.

While Chen is to be missed, I was thinking over the weekend that a lot of the Chen love v. Gonzo is based on recency rather than overall performance. In ERA and ERA+, Gonzo beats Chen in 3 of the 4 years on the team (but not last year). In WHIP, each wins 2 years; in FIP, Chen wins all 4. So did Chen suddenly become much better, or did he just have a great walk year while Gonzo had his worst year as an Oriole? Is Gonzo, as shown by the difference between ERA and FIP, much more dependent on great defense and thus likely to bounce back with a healthy Hardy, etc.? (Last year is the only year in which Gonzo's ERA is in line with his FIP.)

[tntoriole]

It's a bad bet because you have to pay way more. That hasn't changed. No one signed-on for a discount -- they all tested the market and got as much as they could out of Baltimore. Same-ish team but much more expensive.

Should we extend Chris Tillman now?