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The Pessimistic View

Orange

By Orange
in Orioles Talk

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Would it be worthwhile, to see which Tillman shows up this season, and proves that last year was just a poor year and not the new norm?

Wait longer, pay more. Sign earlier, take on greater risk of uncertainty. It's the same tradeoff in all of these decisions.

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

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Wait longer, pay more. Sign earlier, take on greater risk of uncertainty. It's the same tradeoff in all of these decisions.

Thats a big catch 22.

I know we hope, last year was not the norm.

If you lock him up, long term, and he shows up the same pitcher, than you are screwed dollar wise.

This is why GMs have ulcers. LOL

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Thats a big catch 22.

I know we hope, last year was not the norm.

If you lock him up, long term, and he shows up the same pitcher, than you are screwed dollar wise.

This is why GMs have ulcers. LOL

GMs have a lot of tools at their disposal. I'd hope the Baltimore front office has a pretty clear idea as to what Tillman is/can be. And they know him better than any other org does, so they should be able to make an informed decision.

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thezeroes Major Leaguer Rising Star

thezeroes

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Wait longer, pay more. Sign earlier, take on greater risk of uncertainty. It's the same tradeoff in all of these decisions.

This is, as you imply , the same for your own players or those that are free agents. In the end of the day you either get a bargain or waste money. Seldom is the middle ground attained when dealing with multi-year contracts.

Ubaldo Jimenez is an example of the free agent expenditure that may or may not be a good deal.

His first year was abysmal. He was paid $11.25 Million to give Below Replacement Level Performance.

In 2015 he was paid $12.25 Million to give a 2.6 WAR ($4.71 Million per War) which is a very good value.

What he does these last two years to make it worth the value of the contract (Using WAR at a $7 Million Value) which is to average a 2.5 WAR over the next two years. Anything below the 2.5 WAR a year is a waste of money and anything above would be value added.

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soxhotcorner14 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

soxhotcorner14

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minus Chen' date=' plus Trumbo and Kim? Should we expect different results?[/quote']

To answer this simply.. no The Orioles did not address the biggest hole they have. Starting Pitching. What they're chasing now they already have on the team or in their farm system. They need a #2 bare minimum and failed to obtain it.

There is still some time, but I don't see any team coughing up a player like that unless they're grabbing an offer they can't refuse.

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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Wait longer, pay more. Sign earlier, take on greater risk of uncertainty. It's the same tradeoff in all of these decisions.

It seems the most unpredictable variable is how explosively the free agent market for accomplished (or even mediocre) starters grows each year.

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