The Realist's View

[wildcard]

IMO last year's team was an 85 W team that under performed. Had they over performed they would have been a 90 W playoff team.

I guess that is one way to look at it. Another is that the O's were a 76 win team that won the last five against the Yankees and Blue Jays scrubs after they clinched.

[weams]

I guess that is one way to look at it. Another is that the O's were a 76 win team that won the last five against the Yankees and Blue Jays scrubs after they clinched.

The team's Pythagorean was 85. OR there about. That is why he is being realistic.

[thezeroes]

Realistically the Orioles need to improve against the three clubs that took them to the wood house.

Toronto 8 wins 11 Losses Starter ERA 5.84

Kansas City 3 Wins 4 Losses Starter ERA 6.60

Minnesota 0 Wins 7 Losses Starter ERA 5.74

The League starter ERA was 4.14

The Orioles starter ERA was 4.53 (14TH in the AL)

Remove the starter ERA from the aforementioned 3 clubs, Starter ERA would be 3.86 (3RD in the AL)

Also note that the lost one (Chen) had zero starts against Toronto as he was being protected.

Also before getting our shorts in a bunch, I know ERA is not the end all for a pitcher stat and I was using it as an example.

[Can_of_corn]

The team's Pythagorean was 85. OR there about. That is why he is being realistic.

It was 83.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2015.shtml

[Frobby]

Realistically the Orioles need to improve against the three clubs that took them to the wood house.

Toronto 8 wins 11 Losses Starter ERA 5.84

Kansas City 3 Wins 4 Losses Starter ERA 6.60

Minnesota 0 Wins 7 Losses Starter ERA 5.74

One of those things is not like the others.

[DrungoHazewood]

The main thing about being a realist is to admit that you really don't know with any certainty what the outcome will be.

Everyone needs to acknowledge that roughly half of the difference between the best and worst teams is random variation. Injuries and luck and sequencing and leveraging and inexplicably good/poor years and just the plain old despair of not having Nick Markakis on the team is good for +/- 6 wins. I've said this before, but if God himself told you the Orioles' talent level was 81 wins they'd actually win somewhere between a fire-everybody 74 and a wildcard-ready 87.

[Frobby]

Everyone needs to acknowledge that roughly half of the difference between the best and worst teams is random variation. Injuries and luck and sequencing and leveraging and inexplicably good/poor years and just the plain old despair of not having Nick Markakis on the team is good for +/- 6 wins. I've said this before, but if God himself told you the Orioles' talent level was 81 wins they'd actually win somewhere between a fire-everybody 74 and a wildcard-ready 87.

I agree with this, and it's part of the beauty of the game.

[TINSTAAPP]

If you look for a partial bounce back from Tillman and Gonzo then you must expect decline from Gausman and Ubaldo, and for Worley or whomever, to be worse than Norris, for the SP to be worse than last year. If the latter three merely hold serve it should be better IMO..

You echo my thoughts. Tillman and Gonzo can't be any worse than last year. Gausman has been trending upwards. His peripheral numbers were better throughout the board. The only reason why his ERA was as high it is was due to a flukishly high HR rate. And the #5 starter will almost assuredly put up better numbers than the 20 starts they got from Norris and Wright last year. The only worry is replacing Chen but the improvements in the other four spots of the rotation should make the starting pitching better than it was last year.

[Frobby]

You echo my thoughts. Tillman and Gonzo can't be any worse than last year. Gausman has been trending upwards. His peripheral numbers were better throughout the board. The only reason why his ERA was as high it is was due to a flukishly high HR rate. And the #5 starter will almost assuredly put up better numbers than the 20 starts they got from Norris and Wright last year. The only worry is replacing Chen but the improvements in the other four spots of the rotation should make the starting pitching better than it was last year.

I didn't really discuss Gausman in my earlier post. Yes, I think he is likely to improve on his 4.22 ERA from last year. How much, we will see.

ZiPS projects as follows:

Gausman 4.14

Tillman 4.38

Jimenez 4.29

Gonzalez 4.76

Worley 5.12

Wright 4.82

Wilson 5.26

That does not add up to an improved rotation, even though Gausman, Tillman and Gonzalez all show some improvement and Ubaldo does not take a big step backwards.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree with this, and it's part of the beauty of the game.

I think baseball has the most randomness of any of the major team sports. Basketball the least. I think North American basketball, at least the NBA, is the worst-structured professional league. The best teams win a very large majority of the time, and there is nothing to shoot for besides the one league championship. If you're not a fan of one of the top 4-6 teams you're doomed.

[DrungoHazewood]

I didn't really discuss Gausman in my earlier post. Yes, I think he is likely to improve on his 4.22 ERA from last year. How much, we will see.

ZiPS projects as follows:

Gausman 4.14

Tillman 4.38

Jimenez 4.29

Gonzalez 4.76

Worley 5.12

Wright 4.82

Wilson 5.26

That does not add up to an improved rotation, even though Gausman, Tillman and Gonzalez all show some improvement and Ubaldo does not take a big step backwards.

A lot of this may depend on how successful they are in improving the defense.

[Frobby]

I think baseball has the most randomness of any of the major team sports. Basketball the least. I think North American basketball, at least the NBA, is the worst-structured professional league. The best teams win a very large majority of the time, and there is nothing to shoot for besides the one league championship. If you're not a fan of one of the top 4-6 teams you're doomed.

Plus rooting for a bad team is really, really painful. You've got two teams playing under .200 basketball and another three teams under .300. I don't know how fans put up with that for six months. I'd stop watching my team in November.

[Can_of_corn]

Plus rooting for a bad team is really, really painful. You've got two teams playing under .200 basketball and another three teams under .300. I don't know how fans put up with that for six months. I'd stop watching my team in November.

Did you stop watching the O's in '88?

[Frobby]

Did you stop watching the O's in '88?

Not entirely, but I watched them a lot less than I usually do.

[DrungoHazewood]

Did you stop watching the O's in '88?

The '88 Orioles played .335 ball. They won one out of three games, and played close to .400 ball after the initial 21-game losing streak. There are several NBA teams that will go something like 15-67, or about what the 1899 Cleveland Spiders did after transferring all their real players to St. Louis and playing most of their schedule on the road.