Report: Orioles interested in Padres Andrew Cashner

[Tryptamine]

You guys are crazily underestimating Cashner. Sure his ERA wasn't good last year, but that was due to a ridiculous .330babip and a 65.6%LOB which is about 10% lower than expected. Overall he's a good mid rotation when he's healthy.

From 2013-2015(FIP,xFIP,SIERA)

Cashner(3.48,3.68,3.83)

Tillman(4.29,4.20,4.26)

Chen(3.61,4.03,3.95)

Ubaldo(3.96,3.92,4.01)

Gonzalez(4.77,4.41,4.41)

Pretending like you can give up nothing for him is't realistic. He's going to get a QO and he's going to get a 4 or 5 year contract from someone.

[weams]

You guys are crazily underestimating Cashner. Sure his ERA wasn't good last year, but that was due to a ridiculous .330babip and a 65.6%LOB which is about 10% lower than expected. Overall he's a good mid rotation when he's healthy.

I agree. Of course pitching in the National league and in Petco is so much simpler than the AL East. Here, there be monsters.

[25 Nuggets]

You guys are crazily underestimating Cashner. Sure his ERA wasn't good last year, but that was due to a ridiculous .330babip and a 65.6%LOB which is about 10% lower than expected. Overall he's a good mid rotation when he's healthy.

From 2013-2015(FIP,xFIP,SIERA)

Cashner(3.48,3.68,3.83)

Tillman(4.29,4.20,4.26)

Chen(3.61,4.03,3.95)

Ubaldo(3.96,3.92,4.01)

Gonzalez(4.77,4.41,4.41)

Pretending like you can give up nothing for him is't realistic. He's going to get a QO and he's going to get a 4 or 5 year contract from someone.

I like the Ubaldo comparison, not in style but in results. That's mid-rotation at Camden Yards.

Also, I'm not putting a QO past any starting pitcher after what I saw Ian Kennedy get.

[MASNPalmer]

You guys are crazily underestimating Cashner. Sure his ERA wasn't good last year, but that was due to a ridiculous .330babip and a 65.6%LOB which is about 10% lower than expected. Overall he's a good mid rotation when he's healthy.

From 2013-2015(FIP,xFIP,SIERA)

Cashner(3.48,3.68,3.83)

Tillman(4.29,4.20,4.26)

Chen(3.61,4.03,3.95)

Ubaldo(3.96,3.92,4.01)

Gonzalez(4.77,4.41,4.41)

Pretending like you can give up nothing for him is't realistic. He's going to get a QO and he's going to get a 4 or 5 year contract from someone.

Finally, a dose of reality. Cashner was dealt (I believe) for Anthony Rizzo, straight up, when they were both breaking into the bigs. He has the pedigree and arm. You aren't getting him for free; imagine how Padres fans will feel if he's dealt for Mancini, who doesn't even appear on top 100 prospect lists?

[25 Nuggets]

I agree. Of course pitching in the National league and in Petco is so much simpler than the AL East. Here, there be monsters.

2013: 1.95 ERA at home, 4.00 ERA on the road

2014: 1.43 ERA at home, 4.31 ERA on the road

2015: 3.86 ERA at home, 4.77 ERA on the road <-- bad defense

Again, I'd get him but only if it's for a reasonable price.

[MASNPalmer]

Quick comp without looking at #s, though they're similar pitchers (Big arm, both coming from pitcher friendly NL parks). Would you be OK with a Nate Eovaldi like season if Cashner were an O?

[MDK02]

2013: 1.95 ERA at home, 4.00 ERA on the road

2014: 1.43 ERA at home, 4.31 ERA on the road

2015: 3.86 ERA at home, 4.77 ERA on the road <-- bad defense

Again, I'd get him but only if it's for a reasonable price.

I'd like to see DD make this move. I think he'll look a lot better with our defense backing him. I think a solid 4.

He shouldn't cost a lot but never know these days.

[Number5]

You guys are crazily underestimating Cashner. Sure his ERA wasn't good last year, but that was due to a ridiculous .330babip and a 65.6%LOB which is about 10% lower than expected. Overall he's a good mid rotation when he's healthy.

From 2013-2015(FIP,xFIP,SIERA)

Cashner(3.48,3.68,3.83)

Tillman(4.29,4.20,4.26)

Chen(3.61,4.03,3.95)

Ubaldo(3.96,3.92,4.01)

Gonzalez(4.77,4.41,4.41)

Pretending like you can give up nothing for him is't realistic. He's going to get a QO and he's going to get a 4 or 5 year contract from someone.

Nah, I think we have it about right. Free agent after the season, coming off a bad year pitching in one of the most pitching-friendly situations possible. Has to come back big-time to receive a QO. Odds are against it, IMO.

[Tryptamine]

Nah, I think we have it about right. Free agent after the season, coming off a bad year pitching in one of the most pitching-friendly situations possible. Has to come back big-time to receive a QO. Odds are against it, IMO.

He only had a down year by ERA and SD last year was not at all the most pitching friendly place to play. When Matt Kemp,Wil Myers and Justin Upton are your OFers and a team that was considering putting Jedd Gyorko at SS. The park is a pitcher's park, the defense was as bad as it gets.

[Can_of_corn]

He only had a down year by ERA and SD last year was not at all the most pitching friendly place to play. When Matt Kemp,Wil Myers and Justin Upton are your OFers and a team that was considering putting Jedd Gyorko at SS. The park is a pitcher's park, the defense was as bad as it gets.

In his three seasons as a starter (2013-2015) Cashner had career lows in the following stats in 2015:

ERA

ERA+

BB/9

HR/9

FIP

SO/BB

WHIP

H/9

[Frobby]

He only had a down year by ERA and SD last year was not at all the most pitching friendly place to play. When Matt Kemp,Wil Myers and Justin Upton are your OFers and a team that was considering putting Jedd Gyorko at SS. The park is a pitcher's park, the defense was as bad as it gets.

My big gripe is that there's only so much I'm willing to pay to have the guy for one year. I'm just tired of trading what could be long term assets for very short term gain, especially when that gain is relatively modest.

[Tryptamine]

My big gripe is that there's only so much I'm willing to pay to have the guy for one year. I'm just tired of trading what could be long term assets for very short term gain, especially when that gain is relatively modest.

That's completely reasonable and I agree with it. The Orioles are nowhere near one Cashner away.

[Tryptamine]

In his three seasons as a starter (2013-2015) Cashner had career lows in the following stats in 2015:

ERA

ERA+

BB/9

HR/9

FIP

SO/BB

WHIP

H/9

The H/9,WHIP,FIP,ERA,ERA+ were all essentially bad luck. in 2014 his batted profile was 17%Soft,52.1%Medium,30.9%Hard with a 1.54GB/FB. In 2015 his batted ball profile was 17.6%Soft,52.4%Medium,30.0%Hard with a 1.58GB/FB. So last year he gave up less hard contact and more soft and medium contact. So despite nearly identical batted ball profiles, why was his ERA,WHIP,H/9 etc so much higher? It's simple, he went from a .274babip to a .330babip and a reasonable 75.3%LOB to a roughly 10% below normal 65.6%LOB. Now his LD% did rise slightly from 20.4 to 22.7 which will account for some of the babip difference, but nowhere near its entirety. In short, I'd expect a pretty decent bounce back from Cashner in 2016.

[Can_of_corn]

The H/9,WHIP,FIP,ERA,ERA+ were all essentially bad luck. in 2014 his batted profile was 17%Soft,52.1%Medium,30.9%Hard with a 1.54GB/FB. In 2015 his batted ball profile was 17.6%Soft,52.4%Medium,30.0%Hard with a 1.58GB/FB. So last year he gave up less hard contact and more soft and medium contact. So despite nearly identical batted ball profiles, why was his ERA,WHIP,H/9 etc so much higher? It's simple, he went from a .274babip to a .330babip and a reasonable 75.3%LOB to a roughly 10% below normal 65.6%LOB. Now his LD% did rise slightly from 20.4 to 22.7 which will account for some of the babip difference, but nowhere near its entirety. In short, I'd expect a pretty decent bounce back from Cashner in 2016.

FIP isn't bad luck.

I can see trying to spin the rest of it as bad luck (aside from the BB and SO/BB numbers) but you can't explain away FIP by citing BABIP.

For the record I am not opposed to taking him on as a buy low candidate but he had more going on last season than just bad luck.

[sportsfan8703]

SD isn't going to compete this year. The best they can hope for is a package at the deadline or a QO pick for Cashner. I say why not trade the Comp pick B in this years draft along with their pick of Wright/Wilson/Paredes/Walker/Urrutia/Roe. Really they could have two of those just not Wright and Wilson.

SD would likely get Wright/Wilson, Walker and around the 90th pick in the draft.

We'd get to keep our #14 pick and add the SP we need.