Report: Orioles interested in Padres Andrew Cashner

[Frobby]

Thanks Tony. And as for the comments that other people have made in this thread about not wanting to give up prospects for a rental, that's completely discounting the possibility of recouping a draft pick. I'd say that there's something like a 50-75% probability of Cashner getting a QO after this season given his age and talent, with only the possibility of a major injury getting in the way. That supplemental pick takes alot of the sting out of giving up prospects, particularly significantly flawed prospects such as Mancini or Wright.

The fact that this would be a trade before the season, with potential QO comp, rather than at the deadline significantly distinguishes it from other rental trades such as Feldman, K-Rod, and Parra, that can look really bad in hindsight. You're not extinguishing all future value past one year if you deal for Cashner now.

I put the odds of Cashner having a season worthy of a QO at 50/50. If the odds are better than that, the proposed trade begins to make more sense.

[Frobby]

Higher than (2).

Yes. Not as high as (1).

[El Gordo]

Yes. Not as high as (1).

Yes :agree:

[ChuckS]

A good season from him improves our chances. I'm just saying that there are three scenarios in a good season from him:

1. We don't make the playoffs anyway. Gerardo Parra, Scott Feldman

2. We make the playoffs by a wide enough margin that we probably would have made it without Cashner. (Think about the Orioles without Norris in 2014.) Andrew Miller

3. We make the playoffs by a pretty narrow margin and Cashner likely made the difference. Yet to see this happen in recent history.

Of course, then there are the scenarios where Cashner does not have a good season.

All in all, the odds of scenario (3) occurring are not that high.

Agreed. I would even call Norris a net loss considering how he performed in 2013 after the trade and in 2015. We won the division by 12 games in 2014, so hard to say he was the difference.

[SteveO]

I would be a lot more supportive of moving a guy like Mancini in a package if we were getting back a guy with at least a couple years of control. Cashner is half decent but he does not move the needle enough to warrant giving up significant talent. If Cashner comes here, struggles to adjust and has a ho hum season, there is a decent chance you may not even be able to get the pick back on the back end. No thanks...

[SteveO]

I put the odds of Cashner having a season worthy of a QO at 50/50. If the odds are better than that, the proposed trade begins to make more sense.

I think 50-50 is fair and being generous. If he had a real nice year then certainly the pick would be netted. If has a second year (last year and this one) that is either ho hum or flat out not good, then your down prospects and have no opportunity to recover a pick. I just don't trust Andrew Cashner pitching in the AL East, at OPACY, enough to pull the trigger on that.

[LookitsPuck]

It's 1 year. And a bandaid. And it would continue to bleed our already anemic farm system. And it's not like Cashner's ceiling is a 200 inning guy putting up a 2 ERA. He's more like a 3.5-4.25 ERA guy who MIGHT be lucky to give you 150.

Do you really think that guy is worth further depleting the system? Look elsewhere for someone else or just get Latos and recognize we are in this situation because of Duquette.

[El Gordo]

I think the Samardzija comparison is apt. Remember what Hill, Happ, and Kennedy got?

[CaptainRedbeard]

It's 1 year. And a bandaid. And it would continue to bleed our already anemic farm system. And it's not like Cashner's ceiling is a 200 inning guy putting up a 2 ERA. He's more like a 3.5-4.25 ERA guy who MIGHT be lucky to give you 150.

Do you really think that guy is worth further depleting the system? Look elsewhere for someone else or just get Latos and recognize we are in this situation because of Duquette.

Depleting the system by trading prospects that aren't very good? I'm not too worried about that. I hope Mancini pans out as much as the next guy and he's certainly got huge upside but also a very high bust probability.

Latos would be a reasonable alternative. If we can get Latos for the same contract as Cashner I might prefer him. But Cashner's a better pitcher and has a better chance of a QO and I wouldn't hesitate to give up some prospect value for that.

[El Gordo]

It's 1 year. And a bandaid. And it would continue to bleed our already anemic farm system. And it's not like Cashner's ceiling is a 200 inning guy putting up a 2 ERA. He's more like a 3.5-4.25 ERA guy who MIGHT be lucky to give you 150.

Do you really think that guy is worth further depleting the system? Look elsewhere for someone else or just get Latos and recognize we are in this situation because of Duquette.

We are in this situation because of PA. And trading a possible DH candidate at best, doesn't deplete the farm system all that much IMO.

[El Gordo]

Depleting the system by trading prospects that aren't very good? I'm not too worried about that. I hope Mancini pans out as much as the next guy and he's certainly got huge upside but also a very high bust probability.

Latos would be a reasonable alternative. If we can get Latos for the same contract as Cashner I might prefer him. But Cashner's a better pitcher and has a better chance of a QO and I wouldn't hesitate to give up some prospect value for that.

Apparently the make up issues with Latos are real. Doubt he's a Buck nugget.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I put the odds of Cashner having a season worthy of a QO at 50/50. If the odds are better than that, the proposed trade begins to make more sense.

If he repeated his 2015 season again, do you think he'd receive and turn down the QO? I'd say there's a 95% chance he'd receive one and a very good chance he'd turn it down. I see nothing in his fundamental underlying statistics to suggest he's in any kind of decline with his "stuff" (fastball velocity, contact rate, swinging strike rates all still solid last year). He'd have to get hurt for more than a 15-day minimum DL stint to not be worth the QO, or have a very unexpected decline in performance, and while those are both real possibility, I wouldn't put that at 50%.

[Number5]

If he repeated his 2015 season again, do you think he'd receive and turn down the QO? I'd say there's a 95% chance he'd receive one and a very good chance he'd turn it down. I see nothing in his fundamental underlying statistics to suggest he's in any kind of decline with his "stuff" (fastball velocity, contact rate, swinging strike rates all still solid last year). He'd have to get hurt for more than a 15-day minimum DL stint to not be worth the QO, or have a very unexpected decline in performance, and while those are both real possibility, I wouldn't put that at 50%.

This is the fundamental difference of opinion. No, I don't believe a repeat of last season would merit a QO; and yes, I do believe that if he were offered a QO given a repeat of last season, he would take it. To me, gambling on receiving a pick out of this would have to come from a strong belief that Cashner would achieve substantially better results in 2016 than he did in 2015.

[DrungoHazewood]

A good season from him improves our chances. I'm just saying that there are three scenarios in a good season from him:

1. We don't make the playoffs anyway.

2. We make the playoffs by a wide enough margin that we probably would have made it without Cashner. (Think about the Orioles without Norris in 2014.)

3. We make the playoffs by a pretty narrow margin and Cashner likely made the difference.

Of course, then there are the scenarios where Cashner does not have a good season.

All in all, the odds of scenario (3) occurring are not that high.

Scenario (3) is unlikely for anyone not named Davis, Machado or Jones. Kim is unlikely to be THE guy to push a 84-win team to 88 wins. Neither is O'Day. I don't think you use that rationale in decision-making.

[Tony-OH]

This is another one-year rental like Feldman, Miller, Parra, albeit this would be for a full season unlike the aforementioned three. Does that change the calculus on what the trade should cost?

Tony, you are understating the reason people would not be excited about your trade proposal. It is the fact that Cashner represents a one-year rental, more-so than some predisposition to overate and never trade a prospect. Speaking for myself, I have no problem trading Mancini for a SP that can help the club. Just not a one-year rental coming off a weak season.

It's all about value of course and what value you believe Mancini to be. I like Mancini, but I'm not convinced he's an everyday big league first baseman. I like Wright, but more as a middle reliever. If I can move those guys for a guy with upside, in a walk year, then I'm going to do it because I'm improving my team this year, I'm possibly getting a comp pick if he leaves next year, I'm not hurting my organization long term, and I'm hoping that Cashner does well and and likes it here giving me a leg up to keep him in free agency.