Report: Orioles interested in Padres Andrew Cashner

[Tony-OH]

This is another one-year rental like Feldman, Miller, Parra, albeit this would be for a full season unlike the aforementioned three. Does that change the calculus on what the trade should cost?

Tony, you are understating the reason people would not be excited about your trade proposal. It is the fact that Cashner represents a one-year rental, more-so than some predisposition to overate and never trade a prospect. Speaking for myself, I have no problem trading Mancini for a SP that can help the club. Just not a one-year rental coming off a weak season.

It's 1 year. And a bandaid. And it would continue to bleed our already anemic farm system. And it's not like Cashner's ceiling is a 200 inning guy putting up a 2 ERA. He's more like a 3.5-4.25 ERA guy who MIGHT be lucky to give you 150.

Do you really think that guy is worth further depleting the system? Look elsewhere for someone else or just get Latos and recognize we are in this situation because of Duquette.

Some scouts rate Mancini and Walker as very similar players in the major leagues. Wright is 26-years old and has a 6.04 and a 5.2 K/9 rate in the major leagues. Wilson, Triggs, Jones, Lee (3rd starter ceiling) all say hello for potential 5th starter types) Are we really depleting the system if this trade was made?

[25 Nuggets]

Some scouts rate Mancini and Walker as very similar players in the major leagues. Wright is 26-years old and has a 6.04 and a 5.2 K/9 rate in the major leagues. Wilson, Triggs, Jones, Lee (3rd starter ceiling) all say hello for potential 5th starter types) Are we really depleting the system if this trade was made?

Just to clarify, you think Davies is better than all these guys right?

[SteveO]

It's all about value of course and what value you believe Mancini to be. I like Mancini, but I'm not convinced he's an everyday big league first baseman. I like Wright, but more as a middle reliever. If I can move those guys for a guy with upside, in a walk year, then I'm going to do it because I'm improving my team this year, I'm possibly getting a comp pick if he leaves next year, I'm not hurting my organization long term, and I'm hoping that Cashner does well and and likes it here giving me a leg up to keep him in free agency.

Are there any targets you can think of who would have at least one more year of additional control?

I just can't see giving up a guy with upside for a kinda ho hum starter with only one year of control. If he had 2 years of control, then you might have me interested, but with only one, giving up Mancini is to much in my book.

[SteveO]

Some scouts rate Mancini and Walker as very similar players in the major leagues. Wright is 26-years old and has a 6.04 and a 5.2 K/9 rate in the major leagues. Wilson, Triggs, Jones, Lee (3rd starter ceiling) all say hello for potential 5th starter types) Are we really depleting the system if this trade was made?

It feels to me like your now devaluing Mancini in a similar fashion to the way that those who supported the Davies trade tried to devalue him.

Perhaps your right, perhaps Mancini is not the player some want him to be, that said I think letting a guy go who is getting some interest from other teams as a prospect for a ho hum starter with one year of control is a mistake. Just as sending Davies for ho hum OF with one year of control was also.

[Frobby]

Some scouts rate Mancini and Walker as very similar players in the major leagues. Wright is 26-years old and has a 6.04 and a 5.2 K/9 rate in the major leagues. Wilson, Triggs, Jones, Lee (3rd starter ceiling) all say hello for potential 5th starter types) Are we really depleting the system if this trade was made?

I think Mancini has more upside than Walker, but he will have to prove it this year by outperforming Walker at Norfolk. I like Wilson slightly better than Wright as a starting pitcher, but I think Wright could be a serviceable 5th starter/decent bullpen piece. I gather you thing Lee has more upside than Wilson as a starter, but he is further away from being ready to help and I want to see how he does as he progresses up the ladder. I don't think either is untouchable, but I really hate the idea of getting only one year in return.

[Number5]

It's all about value of course and what value you believe Mancini to be. I like Mancini, but I'm not convinced he's an everyday big league first baseman. I like Wright, but more as a middle reliever. If I can move those guys for a guy with upside, in a walk year, then I'm going to do it because I'm improving my team this year, I'm possibly getting a comp pick if he leaves next year, I'm not hurting my organization long term, and I'm hoping that Cashner does well and and likes it here giving me a leg up to keep him in free agency.

Isn't it also about what value you believe Cashner will be? To me, this is the real difference of opinion here.

Cashner, despite his hype and pedigree, has never really panned out to be what he was projected to be. His career pales in comparison to Matt Wieters, for example. Wieters is four months older than Cashner, yet has accumulated 14.6 WAR to Cashner's 3.6 over their careers. Wieters has played one more season in the majors than Cashner.

I know you were very much against offering Wieters the QO. I didn't agree with you, but I understood your reasons. I am confused, however, by your position on Cashner. If the perceived likelihood of getting a pick by offering him a QO next off-season enters into your thinking, I don't see how that jibes with your position on Wieters. After all, the QO represents paying a salary worth about 2 WAR. Wieters has shown that he can be worth that, and has had a couple of seasons where he would have returned a strong excess value on that investment. Cashner has been worth 2 WAR twice (2.4 in 2013 and 1.9 in 2014), and has never delivered substantial excess value on a salary worth 2 WAR. Last season, Cashner came in at -0.9 WAR, and Wieters 1.7 WAR better than that at 0.8. Bad year for both, no question, but worse for Cashner. I'm really just not getting the Cashner love here. Do we really want to trade prospects that may well be able to net us something better on the gamble that Cashner will provide us a career year?

I understand your points on Mancini and Wright. Where we differ is how we peceive Cashner's value, not the Orioles' prospects. I am not unilaterally opposed to trading Mancini. I just simply don't see Cashner as being the right target.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Isn't it also about what value you believe Cashner will be? To me, this is the real difference of opinion here.

Cashner, despite his hype and pedigree, has never really panned out to be what he was projected to be. His career pales in comparison to Matt Wieters, for example. Wieters is four months older than Cashner, yet has accumulated 14.6 WAR to Cashner's 3.6 over their careers. Wieters has played one more season in the majors than Cashner.

I know you were very much against offering Wieters the QO. I didn't agree with you, but I understood your reasons. I am confused, however, by your position on Cashner. If the perceived likelihood of getting a pick by offering him a QO next off-season enters into your thinking, I don't see how that jibes with your position on Wieters. After all, the QO represents paying a salary worth about 2 WAR. Wieters has shown that he can be worth that, and has had a couple of seasons where he would have returned a strong excess value on that investment. Cashner has been worth 2 WAR twice (2.4 in 2013 and 1.9 in 2014), and has never delivered substantial excess value on a salary worth 2 WAR. Last season, Cashner came in at -0.9 WAR, and Wieters 1.7 WAR better than that at 0.8. Bad year for both, no question, but worse for Cashner. I'm really just not getting the Cashner love here. Do we really want to trade prospects that may well be able to net us something better on the gamble that Cashner will provide us a career year?

I understand your points on Mancini and Wright. Where we differ is how we peceive Cashner's value, not the Orioles' prospects. I am not unilaterally opposed to trading Mancini. I just simply don't see Cashner as being the right target.

Here lies the difference of opinion. You are using bWAR, which goes based on actual results (ERA), whereas I prefer fWAR, which uses FIP and has significantly greater predictive value for future performance.

Cashner still logged 2.3 fWAR last year. Using bWAR, because of the many other reasons pointed out in the thread, he has a terrible season at -0.9 bWAR. If that's how you evaluate him we're never going to be on the same page. In my eyes, he didn't have a bad season at all, with his additional innings making up for the fact that he wasn't as effective on a per-inning basis as he was in 2013 and 2014. Over the past 3 years, he's been remarkable consistent with 2.7, 2.3, and 2.3 fWAR. That's the player that I see him as, and advocate trading for.

[Frobby]

Here lies the difference of opinion. You are using bWAR, which goes based on actual results (ERA), whereas I prefer fWAR, which uses FIP and has significantly greater predictive value for future performance.

Cashner still logged 2.3 fWAR last year. Using bWAR, because of the many other reasons pointed out in the thread, he has a terrible season at -0.9 bWAR. If that's how you evaluate him we're never going to be on the same page. In my eyes, he didn't have a bad season at all, with his additional innings making up for the fact that he wasn't as effective on a per-inning basis as he was in 2013 and 2014. Over the past 3 years, he's been remarkable consistent with 2.7, 2.3, and 2.3 fWAR. That's the player that I see him as, and advocate trading for.

A FIP of 3.85 in San Diego is probably akin to a FIP of 4.30 in Baltimore. Agree?

[birrman54]

A FIP of 3.85 in San Diego is probably akin to a FIP of 4.30 in Baltimore. Agree?

I believe xFIP is park and league adjusted, so you can use that if you're trying to avoid Petco effects.

Cashner had a 3.84 xFIP last season. (3.69 career)

[weams]

A FIP of 3.85 in San Diego is probably akin to a FIP of 4.30 in Baltimore. Agree?

Easily so. Plus, they get the pitcher too. That changes everything about how you pitch.

[Can_of_corn]

A FIP of 3.85 in San Diego is probably akin to a FIP of 4.30 in Baltimore. Agree?

You think the DH and the difference in HR would lead to an almost half run bump in FIP?

Over the last three seasons

OPCAY:

1.275/.936/1.415

PETCO:

.936/.808/1.085

I think you are overestimating.

[Number5]

You think the DH and the difference in HR would lead to an almost half run bump in FIP?

Over the last three seasons

OPCAY:

1.275/.936/1.415

PETCO:

.936/.808/1.085

I think you are overestimating.

Not by a whole lot. There is a clear difference.

[Can_of_corn]

Not by a whole lot. There is a clear difference.

Sure there is.

I just don't think it is .45 of a run.

[weams]

You think the DH and the difference in HR would lead to an almost half run bump in FIP?

Over the last three seasons

OPCAY:

1.275/.936/1.415

PETCO:

.936/.808/1.085

I think you are overestimating.

DH has a huge effect in the East.

[weams]

Sure there is.

I just don't think it is .45 of a run.

That's probably accurate.