Facing facts

[weams]

If history meant anything the Orioles would not have a 161 million dollar firstbaseman.

[birrman54]

Just because Fister took a one year deal with the Astros does not mean he would have accepted a one year deal with the O's.

Agreed. Definitely can't make assumptions - it's also possible, as another poster mentioned, that we just weren't that into him.

[Frobby]

This CBA clause appears to be about the solvency of the franchise not the payroll level. The O's are profitable year over year. They do not have a debt problem. This is strictly accounting for the club to handle IMO.

It is still payroll-related money that has to be put aside and not spent for other purposes. $3 mm that you have to put aside to fund some future payroll obligation is $3 mm you don't have to spend on payroll now.

[Ohfan67]

If history meant anything the Orioles would not have a 161 million dollar firstbaseman.

Totally disagree for multiple reasons. First, Angelos has signed a number of Orioles to generous contract extension over the years. He negotiated personally with Brady Anderson, for example, and significantly over paid. They signed Jones to a long-term contract (although much more team friendly that Anderson's deal). Second, the Orioles have rarely ever been truly cheap. They only bottomed the salary out a few years during the pathetic years. They almost always spend about the median amount of cash on players. In fact, the Orioles have had a penchant for overspending for mediocrity. Third, Davis' salary isn't even that big. In my opinion, most posters on the board are in denial about what is a big contract in today's MLB. Twenty eight ML players made more than 20 million dollars in 2015. Fifty four players will make more in 2016 that Chris Davis. 54. The Detroit Tigers, who have very few market advantages over the Orioles, will have five players who make more than Davis in 2016. I think the Davis signing and their 2016 payroll is in line with their history.

[DrungoHazewood]

Totally disagree for multiple reasons. First, Angelos has signed a number of Orioles to generous contract extension over the years. He negotiated personally with Brady Anderson, for example, and significantly over paid. They signed Jones to a long-term contract (although much more team friendly that Anderson's deal). Second, the Orioles have rarely ever been truly cheap. They only bottomed the salary out a few years during the pathetic years. They almost always spend about the median amount of cash on players. In fact, the Orioles have had a penchant for overspending for mediocrity. Third, Davis' salary isn't even that big. In my opinion, most posters on the board are in denial about what is a big contract in today's MLB. Twenty eight ML players made more than 20 million dollars in 2015. Fifty four players will make more in 2016 that Chris Davis. 54. The Detroit Tigers, who have very few market advantages over the Orioles, will have five players who make more than Davis in 2016. I think the Davis signing and their 2016 payroll is in line with their history.

But what is the distribution of those players making more than Davis? I'd assume it's very unbalanced, with a handful of large-market teams with 5, 6, 7 such players and maybe 10 or 12 teams with one or none.

[weams]

Totally disagree for multiple reasons. First, Angelos has signed a number of Orioles to generous contract extension over the years. He negotiated personally with Brady Anderson, for example, and significantly over paid. They signed Jones to a long-term contract (although much more team friendly that Anderson's deal). Second, the Orioles have rarely ever been truly cheap. They only bottomed the salary out a few years during the pathetic years. They almost always spend about the median amount of cash on players. In fact, the Orioles have had a penchant for overspending for mediocrity. Third, Davis' salary isn't even that big. In my opinion, most posters on the board are in denial about what is a big contract in today's MLB. Twenty eight ML players made more than 20 million dollars in 2015. Fifty four players will make more in 2016 that Chris Davis. 54. The Detroit Tigers, who have very few market advantages over the Orioles, will have five players who make more than Davis in 2016. I think the Davis signing and their 2016 payroll is in line with their history.

I totally disagree. And the Tigers have a much wealthier dude. Almost 6 times as wealthy.

[SteveO]

I think it is fair to be critical of the organizations inability to bring in even a good #5 nevermind a #1 or #2 type guy. DD made it clear they needed to improve there and they did not.

With that said, this is not some dreg of a ballclub with no hope of winning IMO. As constructed they would need some guys to have banner years but its not impossible. With a few shrewd additions, I think you can improve those percentages even more.

There is a happy medium. Things are nowhere near perfect but they are nowhere near as bad as they could be either.

[birrman54]

But what is the distribution of those players making more than Davis? I'd assume it's very unbalanced, with a handful of large-market teams with 5, 6, 7 such players and maybe 10 or 12 teams with one or none.

Your question made me curious so while I was waiting for tests to finish running I compiled the top 75 paid ballplayers and arranged them per team.

If anyone is curious I threw them in a google doc https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-OdWs1s9vfXlYBO4ofT3z5t4rWJ5aQmDMIHrkkTw3Wk/edit?usp=sharing ( I added a column for the total amount paid for each team to top 75 guys - Yanks are paying $143M to 7 people, also the % of compensation compared to the total for top 75)

As we might suspect, Detroit and New York both have 7 players in the top 75. Next is the Rangers with 6 (although I guess they aren't paying Hamilton).

23 teams have at least 1 player in the top 75 - although Astros is because of Rasmus' QO. So that leaves 7 without any (Rays, Marlins, Braves, Pirates, Royals, Indians, A's)

[Redskins Rick]

I think the Angels are still paying Hamilton.

I am surprised that Stanton with the Marlins and his big contract is not one of the 75.

[birrman54]

I think the Angels are still paying Hamilton.

I am surprised that Stanton with the Marlins and his big contract is not one of the 75.

Stanton won't exceed $20M until 2018. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml#contracts

If we presume Stanton opts out, the contract will be like 7y / 113.5M

[Redskins Rick]

Stanton won't exceed $20M until 2018. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml#contracts

If we presume Stanton opts out, the contract will be like 7y / 113.5M

Thanks, thought it was higher than that, but I guess for the Marlins, its a ton of money for one player.

[birrman54]

Thanks, thought it was higher than that, but I guess for the Marlins, its a ton of money for one player.

Well as you can see it's incredibly backloaded post opt-out. If he somehow is seriously injured or otherwise diminished they're on the hook for another $200M.

[Tx Oriole]

If history meant anything the Orioles would not have a 161 million dollar firstbaseman.

And they still shouldn't. IMO

[Redskins Rick]

Well as you can see it's incredibly backloaded post opt-out. If he somehow is seriously injured or otherwise diminished they're on the hook for another $200M.

I know insurance policies are not normally done these days because of the cost, but I suspect in this case, with so much backended, it might make sense.

[Frobby]

23 teams have at least 1 player in the top 75 - although Astros is because of Rasmus' QO. So that leaves 7 without any (Rays, Marlins, Braves, Pirates, Royals, Indians, A's)

Marlins - pay Stanton $25 mm+ beginning in 2018

Braves - pay Freeman $20.5 mm+ beginning in 2017

Royals - pay Gordon $16 mm+ beginning in 2017 ($20 mm in 2018)

The A's and Indians have nobody even close to the top 75. The Pirates have McCutchen at $14 mm in 2017 and $14.5 mm in 2018 (team option) but I'm guessing those will fall outside the top 75 in those years. The Rays have Longoria, whose 2021-22 salaries ($18.5/$19.5 mm but $2 mm/yr deferred) may or may not fall in the top 75 by then (my guess would be no).