Evaluating the Gallardo Contract

[FanSince88]

If we add $20mil to Gallardo's contract to compensate for the lack of draft pick, we get 3/55.

* I'm convinced it would have taken 5/100 to get Chen signed here, in a hitter friendly league, hitter-friendly division, and hitter-friendly ballpark, without an opt out. Oh, and let's tack another $5 mil on to that to cover the loss of the comp pick for Chen. Ahem. So the Gallardo deal is nearly half the price and nearly half the time commitment as a Chen deal would have been. Gallardo may not be as good as Chen, but you've gotta think he'll be at least two-thirds as good. I'd say we head-to-head I'd rather take the Gallardo deal.

But that said...

* Ugh, we probably could have had Kazmir for 3/60. Sure, $5mil more than Gallardo but we did need a lefty starter and Kazmir might be better. And that 14th pick might just be worth a little more than $20 mil to an organization with as depleted a farm system as the O's.

* Ugh, we could have signed both Fister AND Latos to one year deals for slightly more combined than we gave Yovani for one year, without losing the pick. Now they could probably both be significantly worse than Gallardo is, but there's an outside chance that one -- possibly Fister? -- could be better. Lots of O's fans will be eating crow if Fister has a bounce-back year in 2016 and Gallardo struggles.

*STILL, given the position we were in at the end of the FA class, given the inflated market for starters, I do have to say "well played" to DD for staring Gallardo down and getting a $10 mil cheaper deal than was initially rumored. Yovani blinked first, and we get a much better, low-risk deal than the one it would have taken to resign Chen. There were probably better deals to be made for SP this offseason, but at least something was done of significance. Gallardo will lessen the pressure on the other four guys. And, if one of them has a Norris-style meltdown this year, maybe the team won't feel as compelled to keep trotting them out there. I'm pretty convinced that Arrieta in 2013 and Norris last year were the biggest impediments to the O's playoff hopes in those respective seasons. Hopefully, with more depth that Gallardo brings, maybe the team will be more inclined to bench a struggling starter before they completely melt down.

[backwardsk]

We're getting a guy with a 111 career ERA+ in his age 30-33 seasons for an AAV of 11.5 and a lost draft pick. A guy who's made at least 30 starts for seven seasons.

I don't think they could have signed both Latos and Fister as there was only one slot in the rotation. Even if they do well, they have to replace them in 2017.

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[25 Nuggets]

On Gallardo vs. Chen -- the #14 pick is a lot more of a sure thing than a pick around #30. However, in the end, I have to agree. I heard plenty of talk around Chen that his numbers are unsustainable... I don't necessarily agree, but it's a similar conversation to that of Gallardo. When we get to "hindsight is 20/20" time, if Chen gives Miami six good years, his is the better deal.

[FanSince88]

I don't think they could have signed both Latos and Fister as there was only one slot in the rotation. Even if they do well, they have to replace them in 2017.

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Ok, then maybe they could have signed just Fister for the 2/22 he was asking for. That's half the adjusted value of Gallardo's contract with one fewer year of commitment (but still a 2 year deal so you get someone past year one). I'm not saying Fister is going to be as good as Yovani the next two years, but it's reasonable to think he might provide 2/3 the WAR (just as it's reasonable to think Gallardo is going to provide at least two-thirds the WAR as Chen). It's worth pondering, at the very least. Could be a wash in the end, but I'd rather have the pick if it's a wash, even adjusting for the pick's "value." Cause you never know.

[backwardsk]

We'd also have to replace four starters in 2018. It was tough enough to land one this year.

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[El Gordo]

Fister never would have passed the O's physical nor would Latos. Kazmir got 3/48 M with a one year opt out, from a NL contender, in a pitchers park. What is the opt out worth, the NL, worth, the contender worth, and the pitchers park worth? No way that comes to 3/60 M.

[25 Nuggets]

Fister never would have passed the O's physical nor would Latos. Kazmir got 3/48 M with a one year opt out, from a NL contender, in a pitchers park. What is the opt out worth, the NL, worth, the contender worth, and the pitchers park worth? No way that comes to 3/60 M.

All Kazmir has to do is hold his own and he should definitely opt out.

As much as I wanted/want Latos, he and his agent were concerned about the Orioles physical.

[Redskins Rick]

We'd also have to replace four starters in 2018. It was tough enough to land one this year.

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Some of those might come from within the system.

[srock]

Poke a few assumptions.

$20 million for the pick is arbitrary. We don't know how the Orioles put a number on picks. Most valuations I have seen vary widely. I think $20 is actually high.

Can't assume the Orioles 'could' have signed Fister, Latos, or Kazmir. It takes two to tango.

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[Roll Tide]

Poke a few assumptions.

$20 million for the pick is arbitrary. We don't know how the Orioles put a number on picks. Most valuations I have seen vary widely. I think $20 is actually high.

Can't assume the Orioles 'could' have signed Fister, Latos, or Kazmir. It takes two to tango.

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Considering what the Orioles have received from the majority of their picks, I would have to think that $20 million value would be if we get lucky.

[weams]

Considering what the Orioles have received from the majority of their picks, I would have to think that $20 million value would be if we get lucky.

It's an average of what all picks at that point would be worth. And it is not definite. But it has nothing to do with what team it is for.

[TINSTAAPP]

I don't think they could have signed both Latos and Fister as there was only one slot in the rotation. Even if they do well, they have to replace them in 2017.

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Why would you want the Orioles to take themselves out of the running for a starting pitcher to automatically award a rotation spot to Gonzo? I like Gonzo. He's been a good pitcher for us. However even in his good years, his ERA was over a run lower than his FIP because of an absurd rate. Last year, his strand rate regressed to the mean and the results were ugly. It would have been nice if the Orioles had signed a pitcher Latos or Fister along with Gallardo to really fortify the rotation.

[Redskins Rick]

Why would you want the Orioles to take themselves out of the running for a starting pitcher to automatically award a rotation spot to Gonzo? I like Gonzo. He's been a good pitcher for us. However even in his good years, his ERA was over a run lower than his FIP because of an absurd rate. Last year, his strand rate regressed to the mean and the results were ugly. It would have been nice if the Orioles had signed a pitcher Latos or Fister along with Gallardo to really fortify the rotation.

The same Fister that lost a SP job last season?

No thanks

[srock]

Considering what the Orioles have received from the majority of their picks, I would have to think that $20 million value would be if we get lucky.

It's a hard number to calculate. Lots of guaranteed costs like signing bonus, salary, coaching. Plus opportunity cost.

Lots of risk, injury, guy never makes it, etc.

Chance of actually making the majors is low, being a starter even lower. Then once they do make it you have a limited window before salary jumps or he leaves in free agency.

I can see how teams would rather acquire a veteran for 2-5 years over picking amateurs. Obviously, teams need to do both. But I can see how $20 million for a #14 pick is nothing to hang your hat on.

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[Frobby]

I'm done evaluating this move. I think it was a decent move, not a great one, without the benefit of hindsight. Now I want to root for the guy to prove it was a great move.