Arrieta's 4/19 Start

[AVencill]

We need bats, not pitchers! It's good to see Arrieta pick up a quality start like that. 26:12 K:BB ratio is pretty solid too. Also, great outings by Waters and Olson. Who knew Waters would have a .87 ERA after a handful of starts? Guess it's time to promote him.

[BoysofArbutus]

With the wealth of pitching prospects we have coming through, including a few that appear MLB ready in Olson and soon to be Liz, along with having Albers and Johnson in the pen that could also start if needed, the last thing we need to draft is more pitching. We have enough right now to sustain until hopefully Erbe, Tillman and Arrieta arrive at Camden Yards.

I know it's a sin to say we have enough pitching, but when our minor league bats are as poor as they are, they need to draft Beckham, Alvarez, Smoak or Hosmer. Rowell is struggling, who knows if Snyder will ever live up to his draft pick and Weiters is the only player performing where he should be. Henson is not a major league third baseman with his bat. he belongs in the middle infield and Angle will never be more than a No. 9 hitter with a great glove... and we have Jones in center, so Angle is a fourth outfielder at best.

Give me Beckham with 20 HRs and 30 SBs or Hosmer with 40 jacks or Alvarez or Smoak hitting .320 with 30 bombs.

I wouldn't mind seeing Jordan and McPhail use 3/4 of the draft picks this year on hitters of all types. Power hitters, lead off hitters, something to keep the minor league club's offenses from being so offensive.

[AgentOrange]

With the wealth of pitching prospects we have coming through, including a few that appear MLB ready in Olson and soon to be Liz, along with having Albers and Johnson in the pen that could also start if needed, the last thing we need to draft is more pitching. We have enough right now to sustain until hopefully Erbe, Tillman and Arrieta arrive at Camden Yards.

I know it's a sin to say we have enough pitching, but when our minor league bats are as poor as they are, they need to draft Beckham, Alvarez, Smoak or Hosmer. Rowell is struggling, who knows if Snyder will ever live up to his draft pick and Weiters is the only player performing where he should be. Henson is not a major league third baseman with his bat. he belongs in the middle infield and Angle will never be more than a No. 9 hitter with a great glove... and we have Jones in center, so Angle is a fourth outfielder at best.

Give me Beckham with 20 HRs and 30 SBs or Hosmer with 40 jacks or Alvarez or Smoak hitting .320 with 30 bombs.

I wouldn't mind seeing Jordan and McPhail use 3/4 of the draft picks this year on hitters of all types. Power hitters, lead off hitters, something to keep the minor league club's offenses from being so offensive.

The only reason I am going to disagree with you is because you can never have enough pitching prospects. You can do so much with them, and the way injuries occur, it is always good to have double of what you need.

At the ML level, it is far easier to get Bats through FA than pitchers. Position players have a longer success rate than pitchers. Look at all the terrible contracts pitchers get and rarely perform up to them. But most of the time, your position players will still rake, no matter what team they are on.

That is why I will always be pro pitching.

[Fairfax Bird]

With the wealth of pitching prospects we have coming through, including a few that appear MLB ready in Olson and soon to be Liz, along with having Albers and Johnson in the pen that could also start if needed, the last thing we need to draft is more pitching. We have enough right now to sustain until hopefully Erbe, Tillman and Arrieta arrive at Camden Yards.

I know it's a sin to say we have enough pitching, but when our minor league bats are as poor as they are, they need to draft Beckham, Alvarez, Smoak or Hosmer. Rowell is struggling, who knows if Snyder will ever live up to his draft pick and Weiters is the only player performing where he should be. Henson is not a major league third baseman with his bat. he belongs in the middle infield and Angle will never be more than a No. 9 hitter with a great glove... and we have Jones in center, so Angle is a fourth outfielder at best.

Give me Beckham with 20 HRs and 30 SBs or Hosmer with 40 jacks or Alvarez or Smoak hitting .320 with 30 bombs.

I wouldn't mind seeing Jordan and McPhail use 3/4 of the draft picks this year on hitters of all types. Power hitters, lead off hitters, something to keep the minor league club's offenses from being so offensive.

Angle is a #9 hitter. You already know this? Can you also give me your lottery numbers?

[BoysofArbutus]

In order to defend myself here, I will begin by saying I was a bit hasty in judging Rowell. Happy? Satisfied?

Onto Tyler Henson. Here at OH, the word “value” is very popular. We like to judge up-and-coming players, prospects, potential trade targets an draft picks based on their “value.” Players have different values depending on their position and how well they hit in comparison to other players at their position. If Brandon Snyder was not perceived as a potential power-hitting catcher, he would not have been “valued” or drafted as high as he was. He would be an athletic first/third base prospect that could rake. While it’s always good to have these kinds of players, his talents would be of a much higher “value” if he is a catcher. This is why Matt Weiters is so highly thought of. His numbers would be prolific as a first baseman or a third basemen anyway, but the fact that he is doing it from a position that you don’t often see such a powerful bat, it’s compounded.

Then I give you Henson. At 6’1” and 190 pounds as he is listed on MiLB.com, Henson does not have the power potential that you seek from a third baseman. In about 325 professional at bats, he has 6 HRs. He is slugging around .425 with a solid OBP. If played out over a 162 game schedule, it’s acceptable to believe Henson could hit 10-15 HRs and maintain his other peripherals. These numbers would be of a much higher value to a team in the middle infield than they are at the corner. I’m only using criteria used to “value” players that I have learned here at the OH to make this assessment.

Then we have Matt Angle, who is 22 years old playing in Low-A Delmarva and he enters the week with a grand total of 12 career XBH. With close to 300 career at bats, it’s completely unacceptable of a player at the top of the line up to be a purely singles hitter. And at 22 years old, he is doing this in the low-levels of the minor league system. Adam Jones is 22 years old and playing at Camden Yards. Do you think that Angle, if he progresses and makes it to the big club when he is 24 is going to be a lead off hitter? His OBP is phenomenal, but when you get to the majors and he can no longer rely on erratic young pitchers to struggle with their control and he is FORCED to hit the ball to get on base, will he be able to consistently reach base.

With that, here is a statistical line worth looking at:

At 22 years old, this slick fielder played Double A baseball in 2006. In 380 at bats, he had 16 doubles, four triples and two home runs. In order to reach these totals, Angle would have to double his pro career production in the next 20 games. This 22-year-old’s name is Luis Hernandez. The much maligned, weak hitting shortstop that members of this message board want to see ousted from the line up because he cannot produce at the level a shortstop in the major leagues is meant to. Shortstop is the one position on the field that is often allowed to see a dip in production. A light-hitting shortstop is acceptable, but Hernandez’s incompetence at the plate is too much to be worth slotting at No. 9. At Double-A, Hernandez took 20 walks while striking out 46 times. While this isn’t a great ratio, it isn’t awful. In 380 Double-A at bats, Luis struck out 46 times. Angle struck out 40 times in 236 at bats last season in Aberdeen. He took more walks and showed a great eye at the plate, but when they threw it over, he didn’t hit it. Per AB, he struck out significantly more than Luis Hernandez did at a higher level. These are the peripherals YOU look at OH. Now tell me that you see Angle as more than a No. 9 hitter at best? If he doesn’t have the same caliber statistics as Luis Hernandez at a lower level of the system, how can you expect him to be a successful lead off or two-hitter?

[Ruzious]

Onto Tyler Henson. Here at OH, the word “value” is very popular. We like to judge up-and-coming players, prospects, potential trade targets an draft picks based on their “value.” Players have different values depending on their position and how well they hit in comparison to other players at their position. If Brandon Snyder was not perceived as a potential power-hitting catcher, he would not have been “valued” or drafted as high as he was. He would be an athletic first/third base prospect that could rake. While it’s always good to have these kinds of players, his talents would be of a much higher “value” if he is a catcher. This is why Matt Weiters is so highly thought of. His numbers would be prolific as a first baseman or a third basemen anyway, but the fact that he is doing it from a position that you don’t often see such a powerful bat, it’s compounded.

Then I give you Henson. At 6’1” and 190 pounds as he is listed on MiLB.com, Henson does not have the power potential that you seek from a third baseman. In about 325 professional at bats, he has 6 HRs. He is slugging around .425 with a solid OBP. If played out over a 162 game schedule, it’s acceptable to believe Henson could hit 10-15 HRs and maintain his other peripherals. These numbers would be of a much higher value to a team in the middle infield than they are at the corner. I’m only using criteria used to “value” players that I have learned here at the OH to make this assessment.

Henson's 20 years old. He's going to get bigger and stronger, and nobody knows what kind of power he's going to have. The number of doubles he's hitting right now might be more of an indication of his power potential than his homers are.

[BoysofArbutus]

Go ahead and sit on your fantasy that Tyler Henson is the second coming of Cal Ripken.

Also…. Ripken was…. A shortstop. 400 career home runs wouldn’t have gained the notoriety if he remained at third base. George Brett had a tremendous career, but at his size, he is very much the exception, not the rule.

If you want to lay down bets on whether or not Tyler Henson is going to become a hall of famer, I’ll go all in. If you want me to list all of the guys who are 6’ 1” and 190 pounds and did not go on to mash dozens of home runs a year, I’m like you, a bit too lazy for that.

Here are a few playing right now, though:

Mike Lamb – 6’1”, 207, a career .279 hitter with 68 career home runs. Currently hitting .154

Donnie Murphy – 5’10, 185, he’s a SS/3B, hitting .191 after three years in the bigs with 7 home runs. I bet he’ll be better than George Brett.

Jose Bautista – 6’ 195, batting a career .236. His peak was .254. He has 32 career home runs.

Again, I could probably keep going, but I’m too lazy.

Also, I know somewhere someone will jump up and say “What about Melvin Mora?” Mora was able to be a third baseman that played strong defense and hit for average because he had one of the best power-hitting shortstops in the game, Miguel Tejada, on the left side of the infield with him. When you have that power bat in a place that it isn’t expected, it compensates.

[theonestevewh]

Nice try. I didn't say Henson was a future HOF. I didn't say he compared to Cal Ripken.

YOU said that he didnt' have the power potential to be a 3B. YOU based that on his homerun production so far in 2 half seasons in the minors. YOU also based that on his size. YOU made a silly argument. PLENTY of players his size have had great careers. LOTS of players with his power production so short into their careers have gone onto very successful ML careers and shown power. You used the word POTENTIAL and said he didn't have it. YOU made a silly argument. Just ADMIT it.

I agree, two half seasons is too short for power to develop and I'll even provide a prime example of someone his size that didn't show power right away:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Alfonso-Soriano.shtml

[Mark J]

In order to defend myself here, I will begin by saying I was a bit hasty in judging Rowell. Happy? Satisfied?

Onto Tyler Henson. Here at OH, the word “value” is very popular. We like to judge up-and-coming players, prospects, potential trade targets an draft picks based on their “value.” Players have different values depending on their position and how well they hit in comparison to other players at their position. If Brandon Snyder was not perceived as a potential power-hitting catcher, he would not have been “valued” or drafted as high as he was. He would be an athletic first/third base prospect that could rake. While it’s always good to have these kinds of players, his talents would be of a much higher “value” if he is a catcher. This is why Matt Weiters is so highly thought of. His numbers would be prolific as a first baseman or a third basemen anyway, but the fact that he is doing it from a position that you don’t often see such a powerful bat, it’s compounded.

Then I give you Henson. At 6’1” and 190 pounds as he is listed on MiLB.com, Henson does not have the power potential that you seek from a third baseman. In about 325 professional at bats, he has 6 HRs. He is slugging around .425 with a solid OBP. If played out over a 162 game schedule, it’s acceptable to believe Henson could hit 10-15 HRs and maintain his other peripherals. These numbers would be of a much higher value to a team in the middle infield than they are at the corner. I’m only using criteria used to “value” players that I have learned here at the OH to make this assessment.

Then we have Matt Angle, who is 22 years old playing in Low-A Delmarva and he enters the week with a grand total of 12 career XBH. With close to 300 career at bats, it’s completely unacceptable of a player at the top of the line up to be a purely singles hitter. And at 22 years old, he is doing this in the low-levels of the minor league system. Adam Jones is 22 years old and playing at Camden Yards. Do you think that Angle, if he progresses and makes it to the big club when he is 24 is going to be a lead off hitter? His OBP is phenomenal, but when you get to the majors and he can no longer rely on erratic young pitchers to struggle with their control and he is FORCED to hit the ball to get on base, will he be able to consistently reach base.

With that, here is a statistical line worth looking at:

At 22 years old, this slick fielder played Double A baseball in 2006. In 380 at bats, he had 16 doubles, four triples and two home runs. In order to reach these totals, Angle would have to double his pro career production in the next 20 games. This 22-year-old’s name is Luis Hernandez. The much maligned, weak hitting shortstop that members of this message board want to see ousted from the line up because he cannot produce at the level a shortstop in the major leagues is meant to. Shortstop is the one position on the field that is often allowed to see a dip in production. A light-hitting shortstop is acceptable, but Hernandez’s incompetence at the plate is too much to be worth slotting at No. 9. At Double-A, Hernandez took 20 walks while striking out 46 times. While this isn’t a great ratio, it isn’t awful. In 380 Double-A at bats, Luis struck out 46 times. Angle struck out 40 times in 236 at bats last season in Aberdeen. He took more walks and showed a great eye at the plate, but when they threw it over, he didn’t hit it. Per AB, he struck out significantly more than Luis Hernandez did at a higher level. These are the peripherals YOU look at OH. Now tell me that you see Angle as more than a No. 9 hitter at best? If he doesn’t have the same caliber statistics as Luis Hernandez at a lower level of the system, how can you expect him to be a successful lead off or two-hitter?

Over his first 3 minor league seasons (927 minor league AB's), Chone Figgins had 40 extra base hits (w/ 193 SO's). That's roughly the same XBH rate per 300 AB's as Matt Angle. In his fourth minor league season (when he was 22 in high A) Figgins had 43 XBH's in 522 AB's (& 107 SO's). That's a significant XBH jump. And I'd venture to say he's one of the top leadoff hitters in the majors today. So don't make judgement on Angle too quickly. Is it highly likely he'll do the same as Figgins? Probably not, but that doesn't mean it's not realistic that he could end up somewhere between Figgins and Luis Hernandez.

[Zanetheo'sfan]

Tyler Henson went 2-5 today, both for extra bases. A double and a homerun. Heh

[BoysofArbutus]

Since we’ve gotten so far away from the point here and I know I’m not going to agree with anybody here, few can argue that the Orioles’ farm system is barren when it comes to power hitters, or even productive hitters. Weiters is the only player that is going to make an impact on the big league club in the next 2 years in all likelihood. Reimold may get to that point, but considering he missed the majority of last season and struggled out of the gate, I’m not going to bank on him in left field to start next season. That doesn’t mean I think he’s a lost cause, even though it will be construed that way here. It simply means he is not a lock.

The minor league system is in greater need for hitters at this point.

[BoysofArbutus]

Tyler Henson went 2-5 today' date=' both for extra bases. A double and a homerun. Heh[/quote']

I hope it keeps up.

[rhall]

Well, Matusz doesn't have the pure stuff that a Erbe or Tillman has but he is a lefty that can and probably will be consistently in the 90's with his fastball and his curve and change are plus pitches as well. So Matusz would be very close to the top but since he doesn't "project" as an ace yet, I'd put him behind Tillman and Erbe unless either of them have less than solid years.

You don't have to have a mid-90's fastball to profile as an ace. You need to have multiple plus pitches. Either 3 plus pitches or 2 absolutely dominant pitches, and obviously control. Matusz has three plus pitches. Tillman has two and Erbe really only has one. Tillman and Erbe both have more offerings that have the possibility of becoming plus pitches, but they're not there yet, at least not consistently.

Based on their pitches I would rank Erbe third, and since Tillman's production hasn't matched his stuff yet and Matusz has been dominant, I would rank Matusz ahead of Tillman until something changes in their production or the development of their pitches.