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Orioles interested in Shields?

paulcoates

By paulcoates
in Orioles Talk

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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I don't really understand that logic. The NL is the easier league for pitchers, especially at San Diego's cavernous park. So if anything, Shields should've improved (or at least stayed about the same) by moving to the NL last year.
Of course this is correct.

He outperformed his FIP despite the Padres' outfield defense.

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Three Run Homer Hangout Veteran Council

Three Run Homer

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If the O's starting pitching is really as bad in the regular season as it looks now, then trading for Shields would be throwing good money after bad. This team is going nowhere with or without Shields if they don't have any other decent starters.

Maybe the O's should wait until the deadline and see whether one good starter would make a difference.

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TINSTAAPP Perennial All-Star

TINSTAAPP

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I don't really understand that logic. The NL is the easier league for pitchers, especially at San Diego's cavernous park. So if anything, Shields should've improved (or at least stayed about the same) by moving to the NL last year.

Shields had a SIERA of 3.73 and xFIP of 3.70 last year. The guy's HR/FB% rate last year was 17.6%. That is a flukishly high HR/FB% especially from a pitcher who has a career HR/FB% of 11.7%. If his HR/FB% was even close to his career norms last year, his ERA (and FIP) would have looked a lot better than it was.

You could also make a case that the porous Padres defense behind Shields played a major role in his poor season last year. Shields might have been less reluctant to put the ball in play, started to nibble a lot more, got behind hitters and that's where all the gopher balls came from.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Shields had a SIERA of 3.73 and xFIP of 3.70 last year. The guy's HR/FB% rate last year was 17.6%. That is a flukishly high HR/FB% especially from a pitcher who has a career HR/FB% of 11.7%. If his HR/FB% was even close to his career norms last year, his ERA (and FIP) would have looked a lot better than it was.

You could also make a case that the porous Padres defense behind Shields played a major role in his poor season last year. Shields might have been less reluctant to put the ball in play, started to nibble a lot more, got behind hitters and that's where all the gopher balls came from.

Or he could just be bad. Now that he is older. It is much easier. Much to pitch to eight batters than nine. Your HR rate goes down if you are good and you go to a big park and are out of the AL East. Granted, the AL West is not that hard, but he was not an Ace there.

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Sessh Hangout Veteran Council

Sessh

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Shields had a SIERA of 3.73 and xFIP of 3.70 last year. The guy's HR/FB% rate last year was 17.6%. That is a flukishly high HR/FB% especially from a pitcher who has a career HR/FB% of 11.7%. If his HR/FB% was even close to his career norms last year, his ERA (and FIP) would have looked a lot better than it was.

You could also make a case that the porous Padres defense behind Shields played a major role in his poor season last year. Shields might have been less reluctant to put the ball in play, started to nibble a lot more, got behind hitters and that's where all the gopher balls came from.

There's also the difference in the feel of the mound from stadium to stadium that can affect a pitcher. They all have their own character and feel that makes no two mounds the same and all were practically new to him.

Point being, the change in performance happened at the same time his scenery changed. That's why he gets the benefit of the doubt from me. He still threw 200 innings and still had an ERA under four despite all the home

runs and also led the league in starts for the third straight year. It's too soon to say he is in decline. His K/9 was way up despite his other struggles. It is a a "flukish" season as you put it for the time being all things considered.

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mskrulz Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

mskrulz

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If the O's starting pitching is really as bad in the regular season as it looks now, then trading for Shields would be throwing good money after bad. This team is going nowhere with or without Shields if they don't have any other decent starters.

Maybe the O's should wait until the deadline and see whether one good starter would make a difference.

Well that logic makes no sense. Assume that adding a starter isn't gonna help and don't add another but if it is then trade for one at the break? Pretty sure ownership and management isn't looking to throw in the towel and the money we've invested to just assume a losing season.

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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Why "thank goodness"? Considering our offense is excellent but our rotation appears shaky, Shields could be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.

I think that with Shields returning to the AL East that he would not be that kind of difference maker in 2016 particularly given our multiple weaknesses in the rotation and the contract is awful and I would not send Walker away just yet.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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Three Run Homer Hangout Veteran Council

Three Run Homer

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Well that logic makes no sense. Assume that adding a starter isn't gonna help and don't add another but if it is then trade for one at the break? Pretty sure ownership and management isn't looking to throw in the towel and the money we've invested to just assume a losing season.

Getting an expensive but good starter makes sense if you have 2-3 other good starters, because it could make the difference between making the playoffs and not.

Getting an expensive but good starter makes no sense if you have zero other good starters, because then it will only make the difference between finishing 4th and finishing 5th.

By May or June we'll have a better idea which situation the O's are in.

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Norfolk orioles Hangout Grand Counsel

Norfolk orioles

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Getting an expensive but good starter makes sense if you have 2-3 other good starters, because it could make the difference between making the playoffs and not.

Getting an expensive but good starter makes no sense if you have zero other good starters, because then it will only make the difference between finishing 4th and finishing 5th.

By May or June we'll have a better idea which situation the O's are in.

Gausman and Tillman could be good starters this season.

Gallardo is a wildcard right now. Historically a good starter, not looking like much of one so far.

Does shields make a difference? Not sure, but with our offense........he might.

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