Trade Tejada Now

[geschinger]

It is very unlikely at this point that we field a contending team in 2008 or 2009. We are a relative old team, and we likely will be stuck with Melvin Mora and Jay Gibbons for three years, until 2009. We have Jay Payton for two years. The only way we get rid of these expensive players is if we pay to dump their contracts. Pretty unlikely for the Orioles to do this.

Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff, Ramon Hernandez, and Miguel Tejada will all be on the wrong side of 30 after this year. In addition, we've got an aging expensive bullpen. If we can't compete this year, it is very doubtful we can do much to change our fortunes for the next two years.

Why do you insist on prospects that are close to the major league level? We need to fill a bunch of holes for 2010 at this point. I am thinking that 2010 is our best shot now at building a contender. Give me the best prospects that you can get that will be good and cheap in 2010. That's when we have a shot at building a winner.

I realize its tough to predict who will pan out over three years, but I certainly wouldn't insist on trading Tejada for players who have to contribute at the major league level quickly. And contenders are more likely to trade players who can't help them this year or next for talent like Tejada who could help them.

Good post although putting together a competetive team can be accomplished much quicker than 2010.

Bringing up 2010 is interesting. One might say that the franchise is drafting for 2010 - they are certainly drafting for the long term. Add to that the fact that just about every big contract expires in 2009.

If we are unwilling to blow it up and rebuild now we may see a status quo situation over the next three years where the absolute best case scenario is the 85 win range before rebuilding in 2010. I'd rather the team take decisive action now and blow it up instead of letting the veteran core play out their contracts and end up getting nothing for 'em (bad idea) or resigning them (worse idea considering age). Realistically a true rebuild is necessary at some point. Why not now when there are some veterans available to be parlayed into young talent thereby dramatically speeding up the process?

[Mackus]

Well considering Freel has been worth between 5 and 6 wins each of the last three years, you should care.

Freel's definitely more of the exception than the rule though. I don't think comparing Theriot's mediocre minor league numbers to Freel's (Freel was better anyways, about a 60 OPS points higher and a higher OBP) really justifies saying he'll be as good as Freel (not that you said that).

Freel is a .750-.775 OPS guy now, Fahey will likely be a .600-.625 OPS utility guy, so I don't think your statement that Theriot will be closer to Freel than Fahey was way off, its probably true, but that doesn't mean that he'll be particularly valuable. He's still a poor starter and more likely a decent utility guy. He also doesn't have anywhere near as good as stolen base numbers nor the versatility to play the OF as Freel does.

If he's the 3rd best player coming back in a Tejada trade, then there is a very good chance we got fleeced. Would certainly take him as largely a throw in to replace Tejada for the season and replace Gomez/Bynum as a UTI in 2008 and beyond.

[rolliefingers]

Even assuming that was a true statement, and Theriot will be a 4-5 win player instead of a 5-6 win player, you're a fool to poo-pooh that kind of production.

Where are you getting those numbers from? Both those guys are decent banjo hitters with presumably OK defense. Nothing to get excited about. Zero power.

[tywright]

Freel's definitely more of the exception than the rule though. I don't think comparing Theriot's mediocre minor league numbers to Freel's (Freel was better anyways, about a 60 OPS points higher and a higher OBP) really justifies saying he'll be as good as Freel (not that you said that).

Freel is a .750-.775 OPS guy now, Fahey will likely be a .600-.625 OPS utility guy, so I don't think your statement that Theriot will be closer to Freel than Fahey was way off, its probably true, but that doesn't mean that he'll be particularly valuable. He's still a poor starter and more likely a decent utility guy. He also doesn't have anywhere near as good as stolen base numbers nor the versatility to play the OF as Freel does.

If he's the 3rd best player coming back in a Tejada trade, then there is a very good chance we got fleeced. Would certainly take him as largely a throw in to replace Tejada for the season and replace Gomez/Bynum as a UTI in 2008 and beyond.

Why is Theriot becoming the discussion. He was just a player I threw out there that could be traded by the Cubs. And a package of Veal, Colvin, and Theriot would not be enough IMO

[Three Run Homer]

It is very unlikely at this point that we field a contending team in 2008 or 2009. We are a relative old team, and we likely will be stuck with Melvin Mora and Jay Gibbons for three years, until 2009. We have Jay Payton for two years. The only way we get rid of these expensive players is if we pay to dump their contracts. Pretty unlikely for the Orioles to do this.

Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff, Ramon Hernandez, and Miguel Tejada will all be on the wrong side of 30 after this year. In addition, we've got an aging expensive bullpen. If we can't compete this year, it is very doubtful we can do much to change our fortunes for the next two years.

Why do you insist on prospects that are close to the major league level? We need to fill a bunch of holes for 2010 at this point. I am thinking that 2010 is our best shot now at building a contender. Give me the best prospects that you can get that will be good and cheap in 2010. That's when we have a shot at building a winner.

I realize its tough to predict who will pan out over three years, but I certainly wouldn't insist on trading Tejada for players who have to contribute at the major league level quickly. And contenders are more likely to trade players who can't help them this year or next for talent like Tejada who could help them.

This is a pretty accurate picture, unfortunately.

What it means is that the O's should be trading a lot more than Tejada. BRob and Ramon Hernandez are good players in their prime and they could still command a good return, and they will be on the downslope of their careers by the time the O's have a chance to be a good team. The fans will hate it, but the O's need to unload all three of them, along with Trachsel and whichever relievers the O's can get a good prospect for.

If the O's DON'T rebuild, then this season will have no point. They aren't going to contend...they aren't going to finish .500...and because Loewen and Penn are hurt, the idea of using this season as a springboard to having a championship-caliber homegrown rotation in 2008 is up in smoke, too. So what is the point of this season now? Let's see if Jamie Walker and Danys Baez can post an ERA under 3.50? Let's see if Kevin Millar can hit 10 home runs, or if Jay Payton can hit an empty .300?

[Sports Guy]

Even assuming that was a true statement, and Theriot will be a 4-5 win player instead of a 5-6 win player, you're a fool to poo-pooh that kind of production.

Sorry but a sub 700 OPS MiL player who is 27 is highly unlikely to be a 4-5 win player.

I wouldn't want him as a player in a Tejada deal...You guys can "reap the benefits" of him.

[Sports Guy]

Because SportsGuy has decided to make him an issue, and when he and Dave get started, there is usually no end in sight.

I didn't make him an issue...The idea that he should be a part of a Tejada package is a joke.

[rolliefingers]

I'm pretty sure that AZ is invested a lot in Jackson. They have Chris Carter sitting in the minors that could replace Jackson, but since he can't play a lick of defense he could be a good DH.

I'd like to get Carter, too. With that big OF, I'd think that Patterson and/or Trachsel could interest them. (Yes, I know the BOB is a hitter's park, but CF is pretty spacious and Trax's command has been good so far.) I'm sure they could use a reliever or two, as well.

[Camden_yardbird]

The market has set the price for tejada at two very good under 25 prospects - one SP and one postion player. Or a current elite player.

TheRiot is good, but not that good

[rolliefingers]

If the O's DON'T rebuild, then this season will have no point. They aren't going to contend...they aren't going to finish .500...and because Loewen and Penn are hurt, the idea of using this season as a springboard to having a championship-caliber homegrown rotation in 2008 is up in smoke, too. So what is the point of this season now? Let's see if Jamie Walker and Danys Baez can post an ERA under 3.50? Let's see if Kevin Millar can hit 10 home runs, or if Jay Payton can hit an empty .300?

You're 100 percent right. The Loewen and Penn injuries have hurt way more than any bad FA signing or poor trade. Not just for this year, but for their development for the near future.

The whole point of getting all these veterans was to supplement the young starters. Now, two of them will lose an entire year of development, right when they were supposed to be ML-ready. The "overpay for mediocre vets" strategy wasn't a great one to begin with, but it looks much worse at this point, just because the foundation of that strategy is broken. There's almost no way that Penn and Loewen will be at the point, next year, that they would have been if they hadn't gotten hurt.

I guess what I'm saying is: Blow it up.

[davearm]

Freel's definitely more of the exception than the rule though. I don't think comparing Theriot's mediocre minor league numbers to Freel's (Freel was better anyways, about a 60 OPS points higher and a higher OBP) really justifies saying he'll be as good as Freel (not that you said that).

Freel is a .750-.775 OPS guy now, Fahey will likely be a .600-.625 OPS utility guy, so I don't think your statement that Theriot will be closer to Freel than Fahey was way off, its probably true, but that doesn't mean that he'll be particularly valuable. He's still a poor starter and more likely a decent utility guy. He also doesn't have anywhere near as good as stolen base numbers nor the versatility to play the OF as Freel does.

All I'm saying is that Theriot is now where Freel was in 2004... forcing his way into the lineup with his defensive versatility (Theriot can play the OF BTW), offensive production (OBP and plus baserunning), and all around hardnosed play. Unless you think Freel's a guy to blow off, then Theriot doesn't deserve to be blown off either.

If he's the 3rd best player coming back in a Tejada trade, then there is a very good chance we got fleeced. Would certainly take him as largely a throw in to replace Tejada for the season and replace Gomez/Bynum as a UTI in 2008 and beyond.

That's a pretty goofy thing to say, without identifying players 1 and 2.

You might not even get three players for Tejada. Heck you'd be thrilled to get just one player for Tejada -- if it was the right one.

[tywright]

I didn't make him an issue...The idea that he should be a part of a Tejada package is a joke.

From the Chicago-Tribune this morning:

http://www.post-trib.com/sports/375142,cubsmain.article

''I find ways to get Theriot in the lineup because he deserves to be in there,'' Piniella said without hesitation. ''He's done a really good job, and because of that, I move things around a little bit.''

Theriot, 27, is the best example of Piniella's commitment to rewarding accomplishment. The Baton Rouge, La., native -- whose unassuming demeanor hides a fiery competitor -- has been one of the Cubs' most consistent performers in any role Piniella has assigned.

He has played in 28 of the team's 29 games, committing only two errors while playing second base, third base, shortstop and once in right field. He is batting .312 with 16 runs scored and 11 RBI, has stolen a team-best five bases in seven attempts and owns a .382 on-base percentage that's second only to Derrek Lee (major-league-leading .496) among the regulars.

Pretty nice praise

For an unheralded prospect who made his way up the farm system after being drafted out of LSU in the third round in 2001, Theriot may be the Cubs' shiniest diamond in the rough. The glint began to show last season during his first extended tour in the majors.

Theriot was called up three times: a two-week stretch in May, a one-week stretch in July and again in late July through the end of the season. In the last tour, he hit .347 (42-for-121) in 44 games, went 3-for-3 in bases-loaded situations and hit .545 (12-for-22) with 13 RBI with runners in scoring position.

He's no Fahey

Theriot's solid spring and strong early play forced Piniella to reconsider.

''Lou's going to play guys he feels will help him win games,'' Theriot said. ''It could be me this week. Next week, it might not be me. If I have a couple bad games, I might not be that guy.

''But to have that vote of confidence feels pretty good, and it gives you a little more of that confidence you need to perform, knowing that he believes in you.''

I would love to have a guy like this on the team

[Sports Guy]

From the Chicago-Tribune this morning:

http://www.post-trib.com/sports/375142,cubsmain.article

Pretty nice praise

He's no Fahey

I would love to have a guy like this on the team

Good for you...To think he should be part of Tejada package is a joke.

I am not saying i would kick the guy off of the team but not alot of 27 y/o with a sub 700 MiL OPS make it.

[rolliefingers]

Theriot is a nice UTIL player, nothing more. If he came over for Tejada, the rest of the deal would have to be pretty damn good.

[tywright]

Good for you...To think he should be part of Tejada package is a joke.

I am not saying i would kick the guy off of the team but not alot of 27 y/o with a sub 700 MiL OPS make it.

Man you are stubborn...I was just showing you he's not that bad. He would not be the centerpiece in any deal and I only threw his name out there as a player Chicago might actually include. Though after reading that, I doubt Chicago would trade him