Perceptions changing too slowly?

[Filmstudy]

Checking a cross section of 15+ online books via Oddschecker, it's still possible to get the following futures on the Orioles (now 6-0):

To win the AL East: 10.5-1

To win the AL Pennant: 30-1

To win the World Series: 50-1

Of those, I like the divisional odds best by a wide margin.

[weams]

Checking a cross section of 15+ online books via Oddschecker, it's still possible to get the following futures on the Orioles (now 7-0):

To win the AL East: 10.5-1

To win the AL Pennant: 30-1

To win the World Series: 50-1

Of those, I like the divisional odds best by a wide margin.

Six and O.

[brooks1083]

So a cross section, would that be the longest odds or an average of the odds? Just wondering if there were some worse than 10.5-1.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

[Filmstudy]

Corrected to 6-0, thanks.

Those figures represent the best (longest) price for each wager. The range is quite large. But whenever I write about implied win probabilities for football, it's important to look at the best price for each event to get the aggregate line.

Here are the best divisional lines for each of the 5 AL East Teams:

Boston: 2

Toronto: 2

NY: 4

Bal: 10.5

TB: 11

The aggregate line of best prices has 8.7% juice as I calculate it.

[HokieOs]

Checking a cross section of 15+ online books via Oddschecker, it's still possible to get the following futures on the Orioles (now 6-0):

To win the AL East: 10.5-1

To win the AL Pennant: 30-1

To win the World Series: 50-1

Of those, I like the divisional odds best by a wide margin.

It's not too slowly. It has been 6 games out of 162. The season isn't even 4% complete.

Put another way, if one were to project that the Os were a .500 level team (ie: 81-81), the Orioles would finish 84-78 if they were to finish the rest of the way going .500. The needle hasn't moved very much yet.

In baseball, it takes at least 20-25 games before you can even begin to draw something resembling a conclusion on teams. Frankly, you really need to get about 50 games to have a truly decent idea about how a team will do. And even that doesn't tell you all that much. The difference between a team "on track" for the playoffs (29-21) and an average team (25-25) is still only four games at that point of the season. That said, if at the 50 game mark, the Os are riding in at 29-21, I would be very happy and think it would begin to be about time to think about a real run.

The point is that the Os went into the season as a .500ish type team. The last six games shouldn't and don't change a thing.

[atomic]

Checking a cross section of 15+ online books via Oddschecker, it's still possible to get the following futures on the Orioles (now 6-0):

To win the AL East: 10.5-1

To win the AL Pennant: 30-1

To win the World Series: 50-1

Of those, I like the divisional odds best by a wide margin.

So how much money are you putting down?

[BohKnowsBmore]

It's not too slowly. It has been 6 games out of 162. The season isn't even 4% complete.

Put another way, if one were to project that the Os were a .500 level team (ie: 81-81), the Orioles would finish 84-78 if they were to finish the rest of the way going .500. The needle hasn't moved very much yet.

In baseball, it takes at least 20-25 games before you can even begin to draw something resembling a conclusion on teams. Frankly, you really need to get about 50 games to have a truly decent idea about how a team will do. And even that doesn't tell you all that much. The difference between a team "on track" for the playoffs (29-21) and an average team (25-25) is still only four games at that point of the season. That said, if at the 50 game mark, the Os are riding in at 29-21, I would be very happy and think it would begin to be about time to think about a real run.

The point is that the Os went into the season as a .500ish type team. The last six games shouldn't and don't change a thing.

Only need to go 23-21 to get to 29-21

[Filmstudy]

It's not too slowly. It has been 6 games out of 162. The season isn't even 4% complete.

Put another way, if one were to project that the Os were a .500 level team (ie: 81-81), the Orioles would finish 84-78 if they were to finish the rest of the way going .500. The needle hasn't moved very much yet.

In baseball, it takes at least 20-25 games before you can even begin to draw something resembling a conclusion on teams. Frankly, you really need to get about 50 games to have a truly decent idea about how a team will do. And even that doesn't tell you all that much. The difference between a team "on track" for the playoffs (29-21) and an average team (25-25) is still only four games at that point of the season. That said, if at the 50 game mark, the Os are riding in at 29-21, I would be very happy and think it would begin to be about time to think about a real run.

The point is that the Os went into the season as a .500ish type team. The last six games shouldn't and don't change a thing.

I did project them as .500 going into this season, so we agree on that starting point. However, do you honestly put ZERO prospective value to the results of the 6 games? No value to the net of:

--Tillman looking like a different pitcher

--The bullpen meeting the highest level of expectation

--Rickard

--Machado's rise

--Schoop's apparent improvement

--The overall play of the defense

--The increased discipline at the plate (both walks and pitches)

Tell me this. Do you think the reasons above are real? If so, what are the offsetting negatives that would bring prospective expectations back to 0? Whatever one might come up with (injuries to Jones and Hardy, lack of a LOOGY or LH starter, etc), I'll bet it's less than the positives demonstrated through 6 games, so 84-78 is too low if the starting prediction was .500.

And I'd take 6-0 over 29-21 as an indication of team quality any day.

[TradeAngelos]

I have a bunch at 25-1 and 45-1 I got before spring training, and would love to know where you are seeing those ridiculous numbers still.

The place I used is down to 16-1 and 33-1 today, usually they adjust them every Monday in season.

[El Gordo]

My perceptions would begin to change after three successful turns of the rotation.

[brianod]

6-0 is better than 0-6 but Vegas makes money off of people that overreact to 6 games out of 162. Personally, I'd bet on the O's to be better than .500 but I wouldn't put my family's money on much more than that given the SP and outfield defense and the fact that we are reliant on a rule five pick to perform like Rickey Henderson...

[HokieOs]

I did project them as .500 going into this season, so we agree on that starting point. However, do you honestly put ZERO prospective value to the results of the 6 games? No value to the net of:

--Tillman looking like a different pitcher

--The bullpen meeting the highest level of expectation

--Rickard

--Machado's rise

--Schoop's apparent improvement

--The overall play of the defense

--The increased discipline at the plate (both walks and pitches)

Tell me this. Do you think the reasons above are real? If so, what are the offsetting negatives that would bring prospective expectations back to 0? Whatever one might come up with (injuries to Jones and Hardy, lack of a LOOGY or LH starter, etc), I'll bet it's less than the positives demonstrated through 6 games, so 84-78 is too low if the starting prediction was .500.

And I'd take 6-0 over 29-21 as an indication of team quality any day.

There certainly has been a lot to like over the last 6 games. Tillman has looked good, but it is only 2 appearances. Rickard looks like a beast, but it's not exactly uncommon for some new kid to come into the league and tear it up, only to become average or far less by the time they've been in the league for a month.

Machado's rise is not a surprise. Neither is Schoop's to anyone who has been paying attention. But again, it has only been 6 games. Even bad teams tend to go on 6-10 game streaks of looking really good throughout the season. That isn't to say that the Os are bad, just saying that 6 games isn't something to fawn over either. We're still quite thin in the rotation. Let's see what happens as we start going through the rotation a few times.

For what it's worth, I predicted the Os as a slightly above .500 team this year. We don't have a sample size large enough to change that yet. Three weeks from now, if we're still playing very well I may begin to sing a different tune. But the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint.

[BohKnowsBmore]

6-0 is better than 0-6 but Vegas makes money off of people that overreact to 6 games out of 162. Personally, I'd bet on the O's to be better than .500 but I wouldn't put my family's money on much more than that given the SP and outfield defense and the fact that we are reliant on a rule five pick to perform like Rickey Henderson...

Vegas makes money after balancing wagers evenly on both sides of the line. The lack of movement above suggests that the betting public has yet to buy in to the Orioles.

[brianod]

Vegas makes money after balancing wagers evenly on both sides of the line. The lack of movement above suggests that the betting public has yet to buy in to the Orioles.

Don't blame them at all. We have consistently out performed our expectations with Buck as a manager. I suspect we will do so again. But, no manager can turn a 82 win team into a 95 win team. We will need a lot of things to break our way to make the playoffs and that is far from guaranteed.

[Filmstudy]

I have a bunch at 25-1 and 45-1 I got before spring training, and would love to know where you are seeing those ridiculous numbers still.

The place I used is down to 16-1 and 33-1 today, usually they adjust them every Monday in season.

Oddschecker.com:

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league-east/winner

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league/winner

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/world-series/winner

Please link your source if either 16-1 or 33-1 are divisional odds.