Allocation of Innings

[Pickles]

As a general rule of thumb, you need anywhere between 1400 and 1500 innings pitched

out of your staff in a 162 games season. Just for example, last year the O's pitched

1430 innings; whereas in 2014 it was 1460.

So let's just say we need 1450 innings this year.

Where are they gonna come from?

I think the top four starters- Tillman, Ubaldo, Jimenez, Gausman- can give us on average

175 innings a piece. That might be low for Tillman, but it seems pretty spot on w

Ubaldo and Jimenez. Guasman's never topped 113 at the ML level, and of course he's

hurt now, so it seems pretty aggressive w him, but figure he and Tillman basically

even each other out.

In total that's 700 innings out of the top four.

Now the top four in the bullpen- Britton, O'Day, Brach, Givens- will probably give us about

70 a piece. Britton's averaged 70 since becoming the closer. O'Day a little lower- about 65

the last four seasons. Brach a little more than 70 the last two seasons, mainly on

the basis of his 79 last season. I think it's reasonable to assume around 70 a piece

this year, but for the sake of mathematical simplicity, let's call it 75.

That's 300 from the top four in the pen.

So we're looking at 1000 innings from our top 8 guys.

Anybody else starting to see the problem?

There's still 450 innings to go, or over 30% of the total innings.

I'm assuming those innings will come from Matusz, McFarland, Wilson, Worely, Bundy

Wright.

This team is going to need A LOT of innings from it's 5th starter and long men. It's

hard imo to see a "good" staff relying on a third of its innings from that group.

Maybe more pertinent is the fact that in order to have a "good" staff, those guys

are going to have to pitch reasonably well. In the case of Wright, Wilson, and

McFarland, the returning memebers of the 5th starter/long man group, much

better than they did last season.

I'm a hell of a lot more optimistic than I was 10 days ago about how good this team

can be. But that's almost solely, w the exception of the early returns on Tillman,

because of offensive guys- mainly Hardy looks back, Schoop seems to have grown

a bit, and Rickard may actually be a reasonable ML player.

But I foresee a lot of games in the dog days of this summer, when that bunch of arms is

limiting our ability to compete.

[24fps]

26 different pitchers pitched for the Orioles in 2012 and 2013. 20 in 2014 and 22 in 2015. The additional innings will come from a motley collection of minor leaguers and in-season pickups mostly ranking 12 and below based on number of innings pitched. To project all 450 presumed additional innings to only 6 pitchers goes against the historical pattern that Duquette/Showalter have established. There should be 3-9 additional arms seeing time in Baltimore this season to eat some of those innings.

[Redskins Rick]

26 different pitchers pitched for the Orioles in 2012 and 2013. 20 in 2014 and 22 in 2015. The additional innings will come from a motley collection of minor leaguers and in-season pickups mostly ranking 12 and below based on number of innings pitched. To project all 450 presumed additional innings to only 6 pitchers goes against the historical pattern that Duquette/Showalter have established. There should be 3-9 additional arms seeing time in Baltimore this season to eat some of those innings.

Thats the trend of MLB.

In 2015, out of the entire ML, there was only 106 complete games pitched, less than 3% of all games.

The Orioles was one of three that had zero.

[weams]

As a general rule of thumb, you need anywhere between 1400 and 1500 innings pitched

out of your staff in a 162 games season. Just for example, last year the O's pitched

1430 innings; whereas in 2014 it was 1460.

So let's just say we need 1450 innings this year.

Where are they gonna come from?

I think the top four starters- Tillman, Ubaldo, Jimenez, Gausman- can give us on average

175 innings a piece. That might be low for Tillman, but it seems pretty spot on w

Ubaldo and Jimenez. Guasman's never topped 113 at the ML level, and of course he's

hurt now, so it seems pretty aggressive w him, but figure he and Tillman basically

even each other out.

In total that's 700 innings out of the top four.

Now the top four in the bullpen- Britton, O'Day, Brach, Givens- will probably give us about

70 a piece. Britton's averaged 70 since becoming the closer. O'Day a little lower- about 65

the last four seasons. Brach a little more than 70 the last two seasons, mainly on

the basis of his 79 last season. I think it's reasonable to assume around 70 a piece

this year, but for the sake of mathematical simplicity, let's call it 75.

That's 300 from the top four in the pen.

So we're looking at 1000 innings from our top 8 guys.

Anybody else starting to see the problem?

There's still 450 innings to go, or over 30% of the total innings.

I'm assuming those innings will come from Matusz, McFarland, Wilson, Worely, Bundy

Wright.

This team is going to need A LOT of innings from it's 5th starter and long men. It's

hard imo to see a "good" staff relying on a third of its innings from that group.

Maybe more pertinent is the fact that in order to have a "good" staff, those guys

are going to have to pitch reasonably well. In the case of Wright, Wilson, and

McFarland, the returning memebers of the 5th starter/long man group, much

better than they did last season.

I'm a hell of a lot more optimistic than I was 10 days ago about how good this team

can be. But that's almost solely, w the exception of the early returns on Tillman,

because of offensive guys- mainly Hardy looks back, Schoop seems to have grown

a bit, and Rickard may actually be a reasonable ML player.

But I foresee a lot of games in the dog days of this summer, when that bunch of arms is

limiting our ability to compete.

Those are rigged stats. Try subtracting 550 for Tillman, Gallardo, and Jimenez. Then do your math. Also, figure 50 innings from someone who you never heard of pitching for the Orioles.

[Pickles]

Those are rigged stats. Try subtracting 550 for Tillman, Gallardo, and Jimenez. Then do your math. Also, figure 50 innings from someone who you never heard of pitching for the Orioles.

Rigged?

What are you talking about?

[Pickles]

26 different pitchers pitched for the Orioles in 2012 and 2013. 20 in 2014 and 22 in 2015. The additional innings will come from a motley collection of minor leaguers and in-season pickups mostly ranking 12 and below based on number of innings pitched. To project all 450 presumed additional innings to only 6 pitchers goes against the historical pattern that Duquette/Showalter have established. There should be 3-9 additional arms seeing time in Baltimore this season to eat some of those innings.

I'm not trying to make some scientific projection here.

I'm simply pointing out that this team is going to NEED a lot of innings from guys who are pretty much replacement level. IN a best case scenario.

And the fact that it won't be the 5 they're planning, and will take more than that, really just strengthens the case. Unless, you think

we have a lot of MiL depth that is better than the aforementioned.

[jamalshw]

I don't really view the pitching depth as the big issue as much as the front end of the rotation. To fill in your 450, I think you can see as many as 80-100 innings from Bundy if healthy and I view him as an above replacement level arm. You also already got 11 innings with just one run allowed from Wilson and McFarland.

Most teams have a good chunk of innings logged by depth guys not much different than the crew the O's have. Look at the Royals last year, they got 148 1/3 innings from Guthrie.

All in all, I'm more concerned about the quality of the accounted for innings you mentioned than those left open.

[24fps]

I'm not trying to make some scientific projection here.

I'm simply pointing out that this team is going to NEED a lot of innings from guys who are pretty much replacement level. IN a best case scenario.

And the fact that it won't be the 5 they're planning, and will take more than that, really just strengthens the case. Unless, you think

we have a lot of MiL depth that is better than the aforementioned.

Based on picking three teams at random, I think it's more likely that the Orioles current situation is close to the norm more than than anything else. Most teams will need a lot of innings from less talented pitchers over the course of a season.

2015

Orioles: 22 pitchers/6 starters

Astros: 24 pitchers/6starters

Royals: 24 pitchers/6 starters

Cardinals: 23 pitchers/5 starters

This isn't to say I wouldn't like to have more confidence in our current rotation.

[Spy Fox]

Don't forget to allocate at least 400 innings for our best pitcher of all, Chris Davis.

[Pickles]

I don't really view the pitching depth as the big issue as much as the front end of the rotation. To fill in your 450, I think you can see as many as 80-100 innings from Bundy if healthy and I view him as an above replacement level arm. You also already got 11 innings with just one run allowed from Wilson and McFarland.

Most teams have a good chunk of innings logged by depth guys not much different than the crew the O's have. Look at the Royals last year, they got 148 1/3 innings from Guthrie.

All in all, I'm more concerned about the quality of the accounted for innings you mentioned than those left open.

Obviously, that's the issue.

They're not going to forfeit games cause they can't find anybody to pitch.

[Pickles]

Based on picking three teams at random, I think it's more likely that the Orioles current situation is close to the norm more than than anything else. Most teams will need a lot of innings from less talented pitchers over the course of a season.

2015

Orioles: 22 pitchers/6 starters

Astros: 24 pitchers/6starters

Royals: 24 pitchers/6 starters

Cardinals: 23 pitchers/5 starters

This isn't to say I wouldn't like to have more confidence in our current rotation.

The problem imo is two fold:

1) We don't have a 5th starter.

2) Even our top of the rotation guys, w the exception of Tillman, aren't going to give us a ton of innings.

That leaves, as I pointed out, a lot of innings going to replacement level pitchers.

That's not a recipe for a good staff.

[Frobby]

I don't see this year as being very different from last year. Last year we used 8 starters:

Chen 191

Jimenez 184

Tillman 173

Gonzalez 145

Gausman 100

Norris 56

Wright 42

Wilson 25

TOTAL 916

The year before, we got 953 innings from our starters, 939 in 2013, 938 in 2012. So, I figure we should expect 916 - 953 innings from the starters. Realistically, I'd hope for:

Tillman 205

Jimenez 180

Gallardo 180

Gausman 175

Wright 130

Worley 25

Others 25

That's 920. Obviously there could be injuries that will cause someone's numbers to go down and the innings thrown by others to go up. But I think we will be in that ballpark. For the bullpen, I expect the allocation to be a lot like last year's for Britton, O'Day, Brach and Matusz. Bundy probably throws 70-80 innings, Worley probably gets 60 in relief, Givens gets 70-80, and Wilson and McFarland fill in the rest with occasional help from others like Roe or whoever.

Overall, the success of our season depends on whether our starters perform well or not. If they pitch well, innings increases go hand in hand. If they pitch poorly, their innings decrease. Hopefully I've underestimated them a little. We'll see.

[Pickles]

I don't see this year as being very different from last year. Last year we used 8 starters:

Chen 191

Jimenez 184

Tillman 173

Gonzalez 145

Gausman 100

Norris 56

Wright 42

Wilson 25

TOTAL 916

The year before, we got 953 innings from our starters, 939 in 2013, 938 in 2012. So, I figure we should expect 916 - 953 innings from the starters. Realistically, I'd hope for:

Tillman 205

Jimenez 180

Gallardo 180

Gausman 175

Wright 130

Worley 25

Others 25

That's 920. Obviously there could be injuries that will cause someone's numbers to go down and the innings thrown by others to go up. But I think we will be in that ballpark. For the bullpen, I expect the allocation to be a lot like last year's for Britton, O'Day, Brach and Matusz. Bundy probably throws 70-80 innings, Worley probably gets 60 in relief, Givens gets 70-80, and Wilson and McFarland fill in the rest with occasional help from others like Roe or whoever.

Overall, the success of our season depends on whether our starters perform well or not. If they pitch well, innings increases go hand in hand. If they pitch poorly, their innings decrease. Hopefully I've underestimated them a little. We'll see.

Well, you've just advocated 180 innings in the rotation for what's essentially replacement level. Maybe Wright's better than that. We'll see, but I don't believe so.

That's kind of a problem. Particularly factoring in all the other long relief innings we need, that will, likewise, be replacement level.

I know this isn't "new" analysis.

I just thought I'd put some numbers in front of people's eyes, who think that we'll just piggyback two guys in the 5th spot, and we'll be OK.

[jamalshw]

Obviously, that's the issue.

They're not going to forfeit games cause they can't find anybody to pitch.

I don't think you understood what I was saying. I'm more concerned with the 1000 innings that's not the point of this thread than the 450 that is the point of this thread. I'm okay with 450 innings come from depth guys. That's how things work more often than not and I'm actually okay with the likes of Worley, Wilson, Wright, Despaigne, Drake, Lee, Matusz, Bundy, McFarland, Roe, Cabral, Olmos and others taking those innings. I really don't see the Orioles depth as lacking, but as a strength. It's been what DD's done well. The weakness falls within those 1,000 innings (baring injury) that we have accounted for with our "top end" guys. The bullpen is good, so really it's the 700 innings you're attributing to Jimenez, Gallardo, Tillman and Gausman. I think all four are fine as the #3-4 starter, but as a whole that top-4 is lacking and that's where I see the Orioles' potential weakness.

Sure, anywhere you can upgrade the innings pitched--either at the back end or the top end--is good, but in relation to other teams, I think were we are lacking is in the top of the rotation not the fill-in guys. That said, a better top of the rotation would result in that 450 inning number shrinking a bit so I guess there is merit there.

[Frobby]

Well, you've just advocated 180 innings in the rotation for what's essentially replacement level. Maybe Wright's better than that. We'll see, but I don't believe so.

That's kind of a problem. Particularly factoring in all the other long relief innings we need, that will, likewise, be replacement level.

I know this isn't "new" analysis.

I just thought I'd put some numbers in front of people's eyes, who think that we'll just piggyback two guys in the 5th spot, and we'll be OK.

I do not think our long relievers will be replacement level. Our bullpen will be above average both in the front end and the back end. Our fifth starter spot is potentially very weak. That's been clear ever since Gonzo showed up this spring and couldn't cut it. The rotation overall is full of question marks, and how those questions get answered over 162 games will decide the fate of the team.