Jonah Keri on the success of the Orioles in the Duquette/Showalter era

[TINSTAAPP]

Dan Duquette?s history of analytical decision-making doesn?t quite go back as far as Branch Rickey and Allan Roth. Still, given how revolutionary Moneyball seemed to so many people in around the industry in 2003 and how long before that Duquette had started to make his bones as a numbers-minded GM, it might as well have been.

Upon being hired as the Montreal Expos? GM in 1991, Duquette quickly hired number cruncher and outsider Mike Gimbel to become a trusted lieutenant?someone who could help him diagnose roster strengths and weaknesses and find undervalued players to address his team?s needs. Duquette was run out of Boston by by a cranky media corps, but while Gimbel never caught on again in a major role within MLB, Duquette?s contrarian approach had a chance to succeed if he could just find another GM job. Now in his fifth season running the Orioles, Duquette has found that new gig, uncovered several more sources of hidden value and helped guide Baltimore to two unlikely playoff appearances in his first four years running the show.

The O?s are off to a hot start in 2016, threatening to make a run at a third playoff berth under Duquette. And while they aren?t linked to sabermetric ideas the way teams like the Cubs, Rays or post-Moneyball A?s are, you can still spot those early Duquette-Gimbel leanings if you look hard enough. This year brought us the great Baltimore hack-a-thon, hosted by Orioles execs and data scientists and designed to give analytically-focused fans a forum to bring forth numerically-based ideas that could help the team win.

More telling on the field has been the team?s aversion to sacrifice bunts. Baltimore hitters have laid down just one of those all season, tied with Tampa Bay for the lowest total in the majors. That follows a 2015 season in which the O?s executed the third-fewest sac bunts (only the statheads in Tampa Bay and Oakland laid down fewer). The other Duquette-led seasons saw the Orioles finish 18th, 19th and 25th in the majors in that department.

Of course, Duquette isn?t the man running the day-to-day clubhouse decisions, and Buck Showalter has earned a reputation as one of the shrewdest tactical managers in the game. But his decision making can?t help but be influenced by the personnel given to him by management. When the two big off-season lineup acquisitions are lumbering sluggers Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez (added to a team that lacks the kind of speedy, bat-control specialists you?d expect to bunt), you?re almost forced not to try many sacrifices.

There?s a lot more to the story than a lack of bunts and a willingness to court stathead fans, of course. Trumbo has been a revelation as the annual low-cost pickup made good, Matt Wieters has bounced back impressively after a lost 2015 campaign, and Manny Machado has become such an all-around terror that we can safely and reasonably start comparing him to Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Chris Tillman is pitching better than ever, backing up his sparkling 2.61 ERA with the best fielding-independent numbers of his career. And thanks to a combination of clever shopping, solid homegrown talent and Showalter?s tremendous and long-standing ability to handle a bullpen, O?s relievers sport the lowest collective ERA in the AL, replicating one of their biggest and most consistent advantages of the past several years.

The power struggle that at times pitted Duquette against Showalter and nearly chased the GM to Toronto a year and a half ago could always resurface at some point down the road. But at a time when some rebuilding teams are looking for a new identity and other clubs are searching for new hands to steer the ship, the Orioles have quietly become an industry leader in longevity. Considering how many years in a row they?ve hewed to an approach focused on big power, good defense, a great bullpen, so-so starting pitching and never bunting, the O?s have to be considered a model of on-field stability?even if things remain a bit more complicated off the field, in multiple ways.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/05/23/the-30-power-rankings-week-seven-braves-blue-jays-indians-orioles

[Tony-OH]

Good read.

[Spy Fox]

I really like Keri's The 30 articles. I'm glad they have survived on another site post-Grantland.

[Phantom]

Good to remember the broad view with articles like this. No matter who you give the credit to, we've been blessed (or maybe spoiled) for a nice stretch now.

[CharmCityLights]

I miss Jonah Keri's old podcast.

[TradeAngelos]

**Crickets** from the Duquette truthers. Imagine that.

[monarchO]

Great, great article. I also liked his grantland articles and always enjoy the national media viewpoint of the Orioles. I don't agree with everything, such as him stating how good Buck is at using his bullpen. But still nice to see.

[waroriole]

Great, great article. I also liked his grantland articles and always enjoy the national media viewpoint of the Orioles. I don't agree with everything, such as him stating how good Buck is at using his bullpen. But still nice to see.

Huh? Buck's a master at using the bullpen.

[DrungoHazewood]

Huh? Buck's a master at using the bullpen.

Buck totally won't go and use his closer for four innings when necessary like everybody did in the good old days, so there's that.

[DrungoHazewood]

**Crickets** from the Duquette truthers. Imagine that.

Just wait. There will be a 3-7 run that proves Duquette should have gone to Toronto where preferred to be all along and now he's torpedoing the team out of either malice or neglect.

[Can_of_corn]

Just wait. There will be a 3-7 run that proves Duquette should have gone to Toronto where preferred to be all along and now he's torpedoing the team out of either malice or neglect.

I still think this team is lined up to hit hard times by the time Dan's contract is up.

[25 Nuggets]

Just wait. There will be a 3-7 run that proves Duquette should have gone to Toronto where preferred to be all along and now he's torpedoing the team out of either malice or neglect.

The Orioles are 3-4 in their last seven, so a Houston sweep would accomplish that in short order.

[weams]

I still think this team is lined up to hit hard times by the time Dan's contract is up.

There are some that feel that the world may end before then. Or at least a WW IV. Or the Marlins will be World Champion again.

[birdcrazy]

I think-

Duquette was left with a great hand be McPhail. That really is the core of the team.

Since then, he has been 50/50 on his free agent signings and trades. Cruz and Chen were great signings. There were some stinkers too..like Ubaldo, Wesley Wright, Suck Max Yoon, and Wada. Gallardo, Kim, and Alvarez may end up on that list too. Also, we have been embarrassed by our handling of some free agents and health issues.

Some dumpster diving has worked..but for every Nate Mclouth, or Miguel Gonzalez, there is a sweaty Freddie, Jair Jurrgens, and so forth.

The X-factor here of course is how much Angelos has his hands in the sauce and messes around.

On trades, I would say Duquette has not done well. Trumbo looks to be good. Norris is 50/50. He was key in 2014, and played a large part in sinking us early last year. The rest are just painful to think about. All I really have to say is Jake Arrietta for 6 months of Scott Fledman. That is not even going into rentals of Krod and Parra.

I would say the one place Duquette has stood out is managing the roster, and rotating among a bunch of players without a lot of options. That part of the team is run very well.

I give Duquette a solid B minus.

I still say Showalter is a much more important cog here..and will create the true void when he leaves.

[Moose Milligan]

I think-

Duquette was left with a great hand be McPhail. That really is the core of the team.

Since then, he has been 50/50 on his free agent signings and trades. Cruz and Chen were great signings. There were some stinkers too..like Ubaldo, Wesley Wright, Suck Max Yoon, and Wada. Gallardo, Kim, and Alvarez may end up on that list too. Also, we have been embarrassed by our handling of some free agents and health issues.

Some dumpster diving has worked..but for every Nate Mclouth, or Miguel Gonzalez, there is a sweaty Freddie, Jair Jurrgens, and so forth.

The X-factor here of course is how much Angelos has his hands in the sauce and messes around.

On trades, I would say Duquette has not done well. Trumbo looks to be good. Norris is 50/50. He was key in 2014, and played a large part in sinking us early last year. The rest are just painful to think about. All I really have to say is Jake Arrietta for 6 months of Scott Fledman. That is not even going into rentals of Krod and Parra.

I would say the one place Duquette has stood out is managing the roster, and rotating among a bunch of players without a lot of options. That part of the team is run very well.

I give Duquette a solid B minus.

I still say Showalter is a much more important cog here..and will create the true void when he leaves.

It's cool, you can give him a B- and point out some stuff that hasn't worked but the fact remains that this team is light years away from where it was pre 2012. Enough time has passed since then to where you can still see some of MacPhail's fingerprints but DD has made his impressions here, too. Record speaks for itself.