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Red Sox Series Preview

Frobby

By Frobby
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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The Red Sox come in leading the AL East at 30-20 and leading the AL in many offensive categories, including runs, hits, doubles, triples, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. The pitching matchups:

S. Wright (4-4, 2.52 ERA) v. Wilson (2-3, 3.80 ERA)

Rodriguez (0-0, ---) v. Gausman (0-2, 3.24 ERA)

Kelly (2-0, 6.30 ERA) v. M. Wright (2-3, 5.05 ERA)

Porcello (7-2, 3.68 ERA) v. Jimenez (2-6, 6.36 ERA)

Wright has 8 quality starts in 9 starts, but has been slightly less effective lately. He's the kind of pitcher who the Orioles could have a great deal of trouble with, or if he is off his game, they might murder. Wright has never started a game against the Orioles but was very effective in two relief appearances against us. Wilson has been pretty steady for us, and threw 3 shutout innings in a relief appearance against the Red Sox on April 13, the only time he has faced them. Overall, I'd give the slight advantage to Wright, who is backed by the superior lineup, but this game looks like a pretty even matchup.

EdRod is making his 2016 debut, having missed the start of the season with a knee injury. He threw to a 3.54 ERA in five rehab appearances, with his last outing being his best, 1 R in 7 IP with 4 hits and 7 K's. EdRod is 0-2, 4.20 ERA vs. the Orioles, including 0-1, 0.79 at OPACY. Gausman has pitched well for us with little run support, and was not at his best in his last outing. He is 2-1, 3.12 ERA vs. Boston in his career. I give us the slight edge in this game, but again it's close to a toss-up.

Kelly has thrown only 20 IP this year. His last two outings were the extremes of the spectrum, 6.2 IP, 1 H and 0 ER vs. Cleveland, then 4.2 IP, 9 H 5 ER vs. Toronto. Kelly is 2-2, 5.10 ERA in his career against the Orioles, 1-0, 4.82 at OPACY. He got the win against us on April 13 despite allowing 12 baserunners in 5 IP, somehow allowing only two runs. Wright has been mediocre all year and I think we can assume he'll yield some runs. He allowed 4 in 5 IP vs. Boston on April 12 while picking up a cheap win, and is 1-1, 11.25 ERA against them in 2 career starts. I give Boston a slight edge in this game, but we have a shot at getting to Kelly.

Porcello is having a big bounce-back season after a terrible 2015, but he has been pretty pedestrian of late, allowing 3 ER or more in 4 of his last 5 starts. Porcello has struggled against the Orioles, 3-7 with a 5.45 ERA, 1-4 at OPACY with a 5.19 ERA. We have not faced him this year. Ubaldo has been gawd awful for us lately, and you have to give Boston a significant edge in this game. He lost to Kelly and the Red Sox on April 13, allowing 4 runs in 5 IP, and in his career is 2-5 with a 5.86 ERA against Boston. Praying that Ubaldo shocks us by emerging from his funk, and that we continue to have success against Porcello.

Overall, this is a very significant series for us, and looking at the matchups, I'd be pretty satisfied to come away with a split. That said, I think Boston's offense is bound to cool off at some point. They are undoubtedly a top offensive team, but I don't think they'll end the year averaging 5.90 runs/game, as they are now. Hopefully, we'll be able to cool them down in this series; if not, it could be a long four days.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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They will be lucky to take 1 game of this series. The Orioles do not have the pitching to hold down the Sox bats.
We will be lucky to win one game. Red Sox could blow this division apart by weekend. We're a team in big trouble.

Very pessimistic take by both of you, IMO. I like our odds the next two days just fine. Not so crazy about Ubaldo's chances on Thursday.

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WEAVERMAN Hangout Grand Counsel

WEAVERMAN

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Game 1 I thought we'd lose and we did.

Game 2 is a very good match up for us.

Game 3 I think will be a slugfest but we'll come out and top.

Game 4 looks very bad' date=' but I suppose you never know.[/quote']

At this point, I'll take the split vs. BOS.

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O's84 Hangout Grand Counsel

O's84

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Put the kool-aid down. I think I've watched enough baseball over the years to know mediocrity when I see it. Looks like a team fast heading south unfortunately. The Sawx will have this division wrapped up within two weeks.

So your are already writing this team off for the divison and any of the Wild Card spots? I think that's a very pessimistic take.

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