Taking a Flyer on Jason Botts?

[MurphDogg]

No way does Millar earn us free agent compensation next year, the only way a player can be eligible for their team getting free agent compensation is if the team offers arbitration to the player which will not happen in Millar's case...

[Mackus]

No way does Millar earn us free agent compensation next year, the only way a player can be eligible for their team getting free agent compensation is if the team offers arbitration to the player which will not happen in Millar's case...

If he signs before the arb date we still get a pick.

Also, we can offer him arb with the understanding that he won't accept it.

I think the bigger question mark is if he makes the cut for Type B rather than worrying about being offered arbitration.

[JTrea81]

You seem to think you know a lot of things, but your logic tells me something else.

For instance, I agree that we can trade Millar right now for some value and, as I've written 10 times now, I'm all for that and then picking up Botts. We won't be able to trade Millar for a plug nickel once he is on the bench behind Botts because other GMs aren't stupid. Think about what you're saying. We have to trade Millar BEFORE or SIMULTANEOUS to plugging in Botts OR we're essentially writing him off as a loss.

I'm fine with that.

You think somebody will actually trade something of value for Millar the way he's hitting now? Are you kidding me? Millar is already a loss and you are just hurting the team if you want to keep him in the lineup just for trade value or for a draft pick. Jason Botts may be better than that pick (if we get it) anyway. The guy we should be building up to trade is Aubrey Huff, not Millar. Millar could be cut tomorrow and the team wouldn't be hurting at all.

Even if Millar rebounds to an 750 OPS, teams aren't going to be beating down the door to get him. We'll be lucky to get a Jim Miller or Rocky Cherry for him.

[Sports Guy]

I'm fine with that.

You think somebody will actually trade something of value for Millar the way he's hitting now? Are you kidding me? Millar is already a loss and you are just hurting the team if you want to keep him in the lineup just for trade value or for a draft pick. Jason Botts may be better than that pick (if we get it) anyway. The guy we should be building up to trade is Aubrey Huff, not Millar. Millar could be cut tomorrow and the team wouldn't be hurting at all.

Even if Millar rebounds to an 750 OPS, teams aren't going to be beating down the door to get him. We'll be lucky to get a Jim Miller or Rocky Cherry for him.

Millar should be given more time to show he can rebound but Botts should still be signed and brought here and he should take away some of Millar's at bats.

[JTrea81]

No offense, but your predictions don't have a lot of credibility in this area. Negotiations just aren't your thing. For instance, you thought there was no chance at all we could trade Trachsel last year. Or the Wieters negotiations. Or the Huff negotations. Etc...

If MacPhail can convince somebody to take Millar and his 3.8 million salary for a B prospect the way he's hitting right now, I'll be extremely impressed.

[Mackus]

Millar should be given more time to show he can rebound but Botts should still be signed and brought here and he should take away some of Millar's at bats.

I think thats a good solution.

If they only make room for one on the roster though, would you rather see Botts or Moore?

I'd go with Moore. He's younger, probably has a better chance of reaching his upside, and is more versatile. Plus, we've already got him.

[JTrea81]

I think thats a good solution.

If they only make room for one on the roster though, would you rather see Botts or Moore?

I'd go with Moore. He's younger, probably has a better chance of reaching his upside, and is more versatile. Plus, we've already got him.

Well Moore is hurt right now, so it may be a moot point...

[Mackus]

The biggest question mark is whether his OPS end up around normal range 775 -815, lower but ok (725-750), or poor (below 700). He'll qualify as a B if either of the first two scenarios occur IMO.

Getting comp for him isn't a slam dunk, but it isn't unlikely either IMO (give or take 50:50)

I don't think its quite as likely as you do. I'd say he'd have to be in the 775-815 range, and hit 12-15 HR. Even then, its a coin toss at absolute best, and overall I'd say its only about a 20-25% chance.

[Mackus]

OK, I'm swagging it in the 40-60 range, but I'll buy your percentage as just as reasonable as mine.

They still use a two year average to determine the classification, don't they? I was thinking that would help him since he has a year under his belt at about an 800 OPS. The determination is rather subjective though so I can't really get a good feel for it.

They use the Elias rankings for the last two years. I forget exactly the percentile you have to be to be a Type B, but I think its top 40 or so. Its tough, especially for 1B.

[ledzepp8]

I'm fine with that.

You think somebody will actually trade something of value for Millar the way he's hitting now? Are you kidding me? Millar is already a loss and you are just hurting the team if you want to keep him in the lineup just for trade value or for a draft pick. Jason Botts may be better than that pick (if we get it) anyway. The guy we should be building up to trade is Aubrey Huff, not Millar. Millar could be cut tomorrow and the team wouldn't be hurting at all.

Even if Millar rebounds to an 750 OPS, teams aren't going to be beating down the door to get him. We'll be lucky to get a Jim Miller or Rocky Cherry for him.

Seriously? It's still April, it's 90 ABs into the season. Can we do without the hyperbole?

[ledzepp8]

Millar should be given more time to show he can rebound but Botts should still be signed and brought here and he should take away some of Millar's at bats.

I think everyone agrees with this, although probably not exclusively Millar's ABs.

[mweb]

First off, I think this is being overblown here. This is not a situation like we have had before where we have a big hole, and refuse to give a guy like Botts a chance to fill that hole. 1B/DH is not great by any means, but it's not a hole either imo.

Yes, it would be great to have a young talented player take Huff's or Millar's spot. However, I don't think Botts is that talented, and he's not that young either. He may be alright, but I don't look at him as a long term solution. I agree with VaTech that Millar is likely to be more productive this year than Botts, and it is also more likely that Millar nets us a pick or a decent young player in a trade then it is Botts becomes a solid future contributor for a winning O's team.

[JTrea81]

The Orioles passed on Botts as he's cleared waivers...

http://www.newbergreport.com/article.asp

We don't have enough guys like Botts in our system, yet we'd rather keep guys like Eider Torres...

[Sports Guy]

The Orioles passed on Botts as he's cleared waivers...

http://www.newbergreport.com/article.asp

We don't have enough guys like Botts in our system, yet we'd rather keep guys like Eider Torres...

Just terrible...

[tywright]

So, all 30 teams passed on him. There are lots of teams with offense issues. Maybe all the scouts know something that JTrea and SG don't?

The guy can't get around on a fastball. He isn't the solution. I actually wish we had picked him up. It would have been quite clear after just a few games that he wasn't the answer.

You hit the nail on the head.

No one is a scout here...just reactionary fans.