Pitching Targets

[e16bball]

What about Ervin Santana? The contract is ugly, the performance hasn't been great --- but if we took on enough money, the Twins might give him to us for free (prospect-wise). In a scenario where we're looking to hoard the prospects we have left, maybe that's our best bet?

Quick glance at the numbers seems to indicate a reasonable expectation of a 4.00-4.50 ERA, giving you some innings, and having a non-zero possibility of better-than-expected results (ERA was 4.00 or lower in five of the previous six seasons).

The money is an issue, as even beyond this season he's owed 2/28M through 2018. But if we could get Minnesota to eat some money, he could fill a major hole for us. Not spectacularly, but probably pretty reliably.

[ChuckS]

What about Ervin Santana? The contract is ugly, the performance hasn't been great --- but if we took on enough money, the Twins might give him to us for free (prospect-wise). In a scenario where we're looking to hoard the prospects we have left, maybe that's our best bet?

Quick glance at the numbers seems to indicate a reasonable expectation of a 4.00-4.50 ERA, giving you some innings, and having a non-zero possibility of better-than-expected results (ERA was 4.00 or lower in five of the previous six seasons).

The money is an issue, as even beyond this season he's owed 2/28M through 2018. But if we could get Minnesota to eat some money, he could fill a major hole for us. Not spectacularly, but probably pretty reliably.

How about Ricky Nolasco, also on the Twins? ERA is 5.17 but peripherals are good. He's given up some homeruns but his WHIP and K rate are pretty good. Signed through 2017.

[eddie83]

DD needs to pull something off. In 2012 Tillman came up around the break and Miguel came out of nowhere. I don't see anyone in minors like that now.

He did bring in Joe Saunders in late August and he was solid. My hope is he can find a Joe Saunders type again this year.

[eddie83]

Jorge De La Rosa would be a DD type reclamation project. He has a huge salary with the Rockies. If the Orioles ate $1M they might just give him to the Orioles.

[e16bball]

How about Ricky Nolasco, also on the Twins? ERA is 5.17 but peripherals are good. He's given up some homeruns but his WHIP and K rate are pretty good. Signed through 2017.

I'd thought about Nolasco as well. The peripherals do look quite strong.

The thing that concerns me is that he's always been a guy who has significantly UNDERperformed his peripherals. A 4.57 career ERA, compared to a 3.80 FIP and a 3.79 xFIP, and he's underperformed his metrics every year since 2009. That gap has only been getting wider, as over the last 3 seasons he's posted a 5.51 ERA despite a 3.99 FIP and 3.97 xFIP. Along with his teammate Trevor May, whose numbers are oddly similar, that's by far the biggest metric underperformance in baseball over that 3-year span.

My concern, in a nutshell, is that the metrics say he's a good pitcher. His K rate, BB rate, FB rate, etc. are all in line with him being a good pitcher. But his actually results are screaming that he's not. And we've got such a sample size with him (over 1000 innings of consistently underperforming his peripherals) that it seems fair to believe maybe he's an outlier. I've only seen him pitch a small handful of times, but I'd bet someone in scouting could put their finger on why exactly he seems to do everything right --- but still routinely gets slaughtered.

[Tx Oriole]

DD needs to pull something off. In 2012 Tillman came up around the break and Miguel came out of nowhere. I don't see anyone in minors like that now.

He did bring in Joe Saunders in late August and he was solid. My hope is he can find a Joe Saunders type again this year.

Maybe he can. I am not ready to have DD put out to pasture yet. He is proving he

is a human being after all.

[ACDC27]

I kept thinking didn't we have Pomarez already but we had Stu his brother.