62 Games Down, 100 Left to Play

[OFFNY]

o

With the Orioles having a day off, I was hoping that perhaps Frobby could do a synopsis of the first 62 games of the season and/or a prediction/forecast of the final 100 games.

He often does them at the 1/3 mark (54 games), the 1/2 mark (81 games), the All-Star break, the 100-game mark, etc.

And of course, it would be great for others to chime in as well (Frobby's mailbox is full, hence the reason why I started the thread.)

[El Gordo]

Here's a quick projection. If we can get 3 QS out of each turn of the rotation(20 left) then we can win at least 60 of those games. Our offense has consistently won more games than we have gotten QS the past few years. The problem is so far we have only gotten 2.01 QS per turn.

[Frobby]

To be honest, between my "a look at the Orioles, by month" thread, and the "ten games at a time" thread, and wildcard's 1/3 of the season thread and .901 OPS in June thread, there's just not much more to say. We're on a 94-win pace, 3rd in runs/game, starter ERA 4.84 12th in the league. 100 games to go and I have no idea what's going to happen next.

[hoosiers]

The Os have benefited from a schedule that has them playing the least number of road games in the AL (27) and tied with only Milwaukee in the NL at that number. KC has already played 36 away games and KC has, I believe, the top HOME winning % in the AL.

I would hope our FO makes a move sooner than later for at least one SP though with the weak state of our farm system I expect we can be outbid for most anyone of quality - though I think our FO is "all in" competing wise and that we would throw every minor leaguer in our system in a deal if that is what it took. Reyes, Sisco, Harvey, Bundy, Mountcastle - we might be able to get someone pretty decent. We'll see. I just don't believe in the current SP rotation and it's ability to keep us in a pennant race.

[O's84]

The Os have benefited from a schedule that has them playing the least number of road games in the AL (27) and tied with only Milwaukee in the NL at that number. KC has already played 36 away games and KC has, I believe, the top HOME winning % in the AL.

I would hope our FO makes a move sooner than later for at least one SP though with the weak state of our farm system I expect we can be outbid for most anyone of quality - though I think our FO is "all in" competing wise and that we would throw every minor leaguer in our system in a deal if that is what it took. Reyes, Sisco, Harvey, Bundy, Mountcastle - we might be able to get someone pretty decent. We'll see. I just don't believe in the current SP rotation and it's ability to keep us in a pennant race.

I don't think you're alone in that assement. Hopefully Gallardo can pitch decently behind Tillman and Gausman (who of course still has upside). If we can acquire a #3 ish starter that might do the trick but I shudder to think of what little we'd have left on the farm.