I'm going to say it first...

[Filmstudy]

I was around when we had (4) 20 game winners in one rotation

You talked about SPOILED!!

My first year as a fan. I still have the 4 20-game winner ball from ball night the next season, when all the team could do is muster a 2.53 team ERA.

[sportsfan8703]

I was around when we had (4) 20 game winners in one rotation

You talked about SPOILED!!

Well now we'll have 4 guys with 20 Holds.

[scOtt]

Well now we'll have 4 guys with 20 Holds.

ONE guy with 20 Wins...

[Frobby]

Only four more for the year? I know you posted on the 10th, but care to revise? Last week I calculated he gets 16 more starts. Lot of opportunity there.

With 68 games to go, and knowing he's not pitching the next 4 game, I figure he has 13 starts to go, maybe 14 if they skip the 5th starter slot a few times (which I think is doubtful considering we have only 2 off days in the next 5 weeks). So, he needs to win just under half of his remaining starts. Definitely doable. He's winning over 60% so far.

[OFFNY]

But back on topic:

If Chris has a string of games where he pitchers his first 3 innings as well as he seems to do his last 3-4 innings, he can get to 20. And we need him to.

I want to take you higher ........

Chris Tillman and Chris Sale leads the Major Leagues in wins, with 14.

[Il BuonO]

With 68 games to go, and knowing he's not pitching the next 4 game, I figure he has 13 starts to go, maybe 14 if they skip the 5th starter slot a few times (which I think is doubtful considering we have only 2 off days in the next 5 weeks). So, he needs to win just under half of his remaining starts. Definitely doable. He's winning over 60% so far.

Sounds about right. It was 15-16 when I first wondered about it at the start of July.

[OFFNY]

But back on topic:

If Chris has a string of games where he pitchers his first 3 innings as well as he seems to do his last 3-4 innings, he can get to 20. And we need him to.

I want to take you higher ........

[scOtt]

I was running the numbers in my head tonight at work.15 wins in 25 starts. That's 3 wins every 5 starts. Counted out the calendar and he should get 10 more starts. That's 21 wins at that pace...

[O's84]

I was running the numbers in my head tonight at work.15 wins in 25 starts. That's 3 wins every 5 starts. Counted out the calendar and he should get 10 more starts. That's 21 wins at that pace...

In the future you can try this: vhttp://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/30285/chris-tillman

Of course it could be off slightly at times, but its a good quick reference. Other hangouters more versed in stats might have better ones.

[scOtt]

In the future you can try this: vhttp://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/30285/chris-tillman

Of course it could be off slightly at times' date=' but its a good quick reference. Other hangouters more versed in stats might have better ones.[/quote']

My brain is faster.

[scOtt]

I was running the numbers in my head tonight at work.15 wins in 25 starts. That's 3 wins every 5 starts. Counted out the calendar and he should get 10 more starts. That's 21 wins at that pace...

I've had some math courses. Chris is 57% likely to win 21. Based on his SSS one year path. .600 Wins/Start.

[scOtt]

And you know... He could win all 10 starts. Finish 25-4. It could happen...

[maybenxtyr]

I like the fact that even if he doesn't get the decision the team still wins in his starts.

[Camden_yardbird]

You should reasonably be able to predict his match ups at this point right? If I wasn't on a phone I would do it. That should give you a pretty good picture.

[PaulFolk]

You should reasonably be able to predict his match ups at this point right? If I wasn't on a phone I would do it. That should give you a pretty good picture.

A couple weeks ago, I took a stab at it: https://www.pressboxonline.com/2016/07/25/could-chris-tillman-join-the-orioles-20-win-club

The projected matchups I listed in that article aren't totally accurate anymore, though. The O's gave him an extra day of rest that pushed back his Aug. 5 and 10 starts to Aug. 6 and 11 (still against the same opponents, though).

My thinking when I wrote that is that the O's could just keep Tillman starting on four days' rest whenever possible, regardless of off days, and skip other guys to accommodate him. But now that they have Bundy and Miley instead of having a permanent TBA in the No. 4 and 5 spots, they're more likely to stay on a 5-man schedule, even when there are off days.

So if the O's stay with a set 5-man rotation the rest of the year, Tillman's remaining scheduled starts would be:

Aug. 17 vs. Red Sox in Baltimore

Aug. 22 vs. Nationals in Baltimore

Aug. 27 vs. Yankees in New York

Sept. 2 vs. Yankees in Baltimore

Sept. 7 vs. Rays in Tampa Bay

Sept. 13 vs. Red Sox in Boston

Sept. 18 vs. Rays in Baltimore

Sept. 23 vs. Diamondbacks in Baltimore

Sept. 29 vs. Blue Jays in Toronto

That would give him one fewer start the rest of the year than I originally estimated. Nine starts total, of which he'd need to win five.

He would have five home starts, three of them against non-contending teams (the Yankees, Rays, and D'Backs) but two against tough opponents (Red Sox and Nats).

He'd have four road starts, two very tough matchups (in Boston and Toronto) and two easier ones (in Tampa and New York).

At this point, I don't think he'll quite make it to 20 wins, but it's not out of the question.