It's going to be a dogfight with Toronto and Boston

[Frobby]

So here we are at the break, 2 games up on Toronto and Boston. I'd rather be 2 up than 2 down, but 2 games is pretty negligible with 75 games to play.

Looking at Boston's upcoming schedule, they play 44 of their remaining 75 games on the road, including a brutal stretch starting July 28 where they have an 11-game West Coast trip, then six games at home, and then another 11 game road trip, with only one day off in that stretch. In fact, the Sox have only one day off between July 19 and August 31. The Sox play 25 games vs. contenders, 23 vs. .500ish teams, and 27 vs. bad teams.

The Jays, on the other hand, have only 71 games remaining, of which 37 are at home. They have 3 off days in July after the break, and another 3 in August. Their longest road trip is 9 games and everything is nicely spaced for them. Of their remaining games, 28 are against contenders, 16 vs. .500ish teams, and 27 against bad teams.

The O's play 41 of the last 75 on the road. They have no off days in July, and only two in August. We have by far the toughest competition, playing 35 games against contenders, 19 against .500ish teams, and only 21 games against bad teams.

Overall, I think the schedule favors the Blue Jays the most because they play more at home than on the road and have a pretty balanced schedule in terms of the competition, with quite a few off days. I think the O's have it the hardest because the quality of their opponents is by far the toughest, though Boston's schedule is the most road-heavy.

Bottom line, I think we really have our work cut out for us. Winning the head-to-head games with Toronto and Boston will be crucial to try to make up for the differences in difficulty of schedule. On that note, we have 9 games with Toronto (6 on the road) and 9 games with Boston (6 at home), while Boston and Toronto play each other only 6 more times (3 at home each).

All in all, I'd make Toronto the slight favorite to win the division.

[ACDC27]

Winning the division is by far would be best but I think that at least one wildcard team comes from the east.

[Redskins Rick]

Winning the division is by far would be best but I think that at least one wildcard team comes from the east.

A very good chance that both WC will come from the AL East.

[ACDC27]

A very good chance that both WC will come from the AL East.

After I posted I was thinking the exact same thing.

[Redskins Rick]

Houston could be a problem. They are coming on strong.

6-4 in their last 10, isn't that strong, they did have a good stretch and beat up on the Mariners and Angels before that.

They got lucky in Oakland and split the series, and the two games they won, was by Walkoffs.

[Frobby]

I fully expect they will take charge of this division by Aug. 1 with their superior pitching and easier schedule.

I assume "they" is Toronto.

I don't think anyone can really "take charge of this division by Aug. 1." Could they be in the lead by then? Possibly. We play 3 in Toronto on July 29-31 so that will be a very important series for both teams.

[Frobby]

They could be in first place by Sunday. From there they have 2 weeks to start pulling away. If they get up by 4 or 5 games, they have the pitching to sustain it. We got up by 5 and you saw what happened with no pitching.

Our schedule is not bad following the ASB and leading up to our 3 games in Toronto. I don't think we will disappear that easily. We haven't played that terribly since going up by 5 -- we are 4-6 since then, hardly cause for panic. The Blue Jays have gone 8-2 in their last 10, including a 7-game winning streak, and Boston has won 7 of their last 9. Well, good for both of those teams. I'm not going to freak out every time we have a little cold streak and Boston or Toronto has a little hot streak. That stuff goes on all season long. There will be a lot more ups and downs before anyone takes control of the division, in my opinion.

[bpilktree]

They could be in first place by Sunday. From there they have 2 weeks to start pulling away. If they get up by 4 or 5 games, they have the pitching to sustain it. We got up by 5 and you saw what happened with no pitching.

They could be but on Friday night I had a fair share of posters say the Jays will be in first by the All Star break and one said guaranteed. Yet they not only not in first are father back then before. The only thing with Toronto is yes they are two back but they are 4 back in the loss column you can make up wins but you can not make up losses.

[backwardsk]

They could be in first place by Sunday. From there they have 2 weeks to start pulling away. If they get up by 4 or 5 games, they have the pitching to sustain it. We got up by 5 and you saw what happened with no pitching.

I thought the Red Sox had the division wrapped up by June 13th.

[backwardsk]

Toronto may have to face Gray, Hill, and Grienke in the first five games out of the break.

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[LookitsPuck]

I think the O's are good. I don't think they're good enough as is to win the division. Unless they get a stable, reliable starting pitcher that helps the rest of the bullpen.

Ubaldo really has hurt the bullpen. He's failed to complete more than 2 1/3 4 times this season. 3 of which came in June and July. He hasn't made it out of the 5th 7 times. He's only went 5 at most 13 times.

The thing is people keep saying "But the O's are still in first place despite their rotation!", but the issue here is that other teams are also good (or better). The Blue Jays have an infinitely better rotation.

If we look at the numbers:

Starters

Blue Jays: 3.64 ERA

Orioles: 5.15 ERA

Red Sox: 4.72 ERA

Relievers

Blue Jays: 4.05 ERA

Orioles: 3.12 ERA

Red Sox: 3.88 ERA

Offense

Blue Jays: 4.9 R/G, 774 OPS

Orioles: 5.1 R/G, 800 OPS

Red Sox: 5.6 R/G, 833 OPS

The last 28 days or so, the O's have a 4.88 ERA combined. An .805 OPS against. A 1.493 WHIP.

This is the worst rotation (by far) of the Duquette era. So this club isn't going to be able to skirt by on the bullpen again. That requires far too many arms. Before the recipe for the O's was for starters to go 5-6 IP and allow 3 ER and then let the bullpen lock it down. This year it seems to hope/pray they go 5 and only allow 4 ER and that they face inferior pitching. That'll work against the poor teams, but by evidenced by their .500 record against winning clubs...it won't last. Especially not in the playoffs if they're fortunate enough to pull it off.

I'm not a fan of trading any viable pieces especially given Duquette's abysmal track record when it comes to acquiring pieces midseason (in regards to talent given up), but if he legitimately is serious...the only way the O's win this division is by getting a starting pitcher. Otherwise it's a WC if they're lucky.

Right now the top 6 teams by record in the AL:

Texas: 54-36

Cleveland: 52-36

Baltimore: 51-36

Boston: 49-38

Toronto: 51-40

Houston: 48-41

...with 6 other teams within 2-5.5 games of a W.C. spot.

A playoff spot is far from a guarantee. The fact that the O's are going into the ASB with 2 starting slots open is concerning. And they don't have any impact depth to fill the holes. Ubaldo and Wright clearly aren't viable options. Neither is Wilson. I'm not sure Worley, Despaigne and anything else will put too much of a dent.

There are 75 games left to go. 15 times through the rotation. 5 off days. That means 15 starts for a #4 starter and 10 starts for a #5 starter. That's 25 games that the O's need to do better than pitchers that have pitched to an ERA between 5.50 to 7.50 (give or take). And that's hoping/praying that Gallardo isn't turning into a pumpkin.

Gallardo's starts since coming off the DL:

4.97 ERA .281/.384/.479 - .863 OPS, 25 1/3 IP in 5 starts.

His peripherals:

27 hits

16 walks

21 strikeouts

5 homers

1.700 WHIP

7.5 SO/9

5.7 BB/9

9.6 H/9

1.8 HR/9

His peripherals are much worse than his ERA. The OPS of nearly 900 with an OBP of nearly 400 is a huge concern going into the second half.

Now, we're stuck w/ Gallardo. And I fully believe the season hinges on him to be at least decent. Because this team can't make the playoffs at all with only Tillman and Gausman pitching well enough.

[Can_of_corn]

A very good chance that both WC will come from the AL East.

Astros are two back, I like their chances to run down one of the AL East clubs.

[Redskins Rick]

Astros are two back, I like their chances to run down one of the AL East clubs.

Hard to image Scotty Feldman is one of their anchor SPer.

I have to be honest, I am shocked that Fister has done as well as he has for the team, he looked done last with the Nats.

[LookitsPuck]

Astros are two back, I like their chances to run down one of the AL East clubs.

Me too.

Astros

R/G: 4.5

RA/G: 4.2

Their pitching: 4.25 ERA for their starters, 3.20 ERA for their relievers

So a page from the O's playbook (great bullpen, average-ish starters) from when the O's at least had a serviceable rotation.

FWIW, that 4.25 ERA for their starters might not sound like much, but combined with their bullpen they've allowed the 3rd least runs per game (Cleveland is #1 and Toronto is #2). Comparatively, the O's have allowed 4.61. Good for slightly above league average (4.57).

[TouchemAll]

So here we are at the break, 2 games up on Toronto and Boston. I'd rather be 2 up than 2 down, but 2 games is pretty negligible with 75 games to play.

Looking at Boston's upcoming schedule, they play 44 of their remaining 75 games on the road, including a brutal stretch starting July 28 where they have an 11-game West Coast trip, then six games at home, and then another 11 game road trip, with only one day off in that stretch. In fact, the Sox have only one day off between July 19 and August 31. The Sox play 25 games vs. contenders, 23 vs. .500ish teams, and 27 vs. bad teams.

The Jays, on the other hand, have only 71 games remaining, of which 37 are at home. They have 3 off days in July after the break, and another 3 in August. Their longest road trip is 9 games and everything is nicely spaced for them. Of their remaining games, 28 are against contenders, 16 vs. .500ish teams, and 27 against bad teams.

The O's play 41 of the last 75 on the road. They have no off days in July, and only two in August. We have by far the toughest competition, playing 35 games against contenders, 19 against .500ish teams, and only 21 games against bad teams.

Overall, I think the schedule favors the Blue Jays the most because they play more at home than on the road and have a pretty balanced schedule in terms of the competition, with quite a few off days. I think the O's have it the hardest because the quality of their opponents is by far the toughest, though Boston's schedule is the most road-heavy.

Bottom line, I think we really have our work cut out for us. Winning the head-to-head games with Toronto and Boston will be crucial to try to make up for the differences in difficulty of schedule. On that note, we have 9 games with Toronto (6 on the road) and 9 games with Boston (6 at home), while Boston and Toronto play each other only 6 more times (3 at home each).

All in all, I'd make Toronto the slight favorite to win the division.

Our games with them both head to head are critical. I'll predict this now if we win all series's left with Boston and Toronto, then we'll win the division.