CBS: Playoff Odds, Biggest Risers and Fallers

[weams]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/playoff-odds-biggest-risers-and-fallers-for-all-30-mlb-teams-at-all-star-break/

3. San Francisco Giants: 57-33

Opening Day odds: 60.4%

July 11 odds: 97.3%

Change: +36.9%

Since April 22, an admittedly arbitration date, the Giants have the best record in baseball at 49-23, well ahead of the second best team (Indians at 45-29). The offseason additions of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija have worked out as well as the team could have possibly hoped, and of course Madison Bumgarner continues to be excellent. Buster Posey and the Brandons (Belt and Crawford) are carrying an offense that has been without the injured Hunter Pence for much of the year. The biggest need in the second half is obvious: bullpen help and good health.

2. Baltimore Orioles: 51-36

Opening Day odds: 31.5%

July 11 odds: 79.2%

Change: +47.7%

It's amazing to me the O's are in first place given their rotation. Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman have been good, but otherwise manager Buck Showalter has had to cross his fingers and pray the other three days. MVP candidate Manny Machado and sluggers Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo are leading baseball's best power hitting offense (MLB high 137 HR). Clearly though, Baltimore needs rotation help. Without it, holding off the Blue Jays and Red Sox in the AL East will be extremely difficult.

1. Texas Rangers: 54-36

Opening Day odds: 7.9%

July 11 odds: 90.9%

Change: +83.0%

The biggest riser in the eyes of SportsLine -- by a mile at that -- are the Rangers, who the system expected to finish under .500 coming into the season. Instead, the Rangers have the best record in the AL and a 5 1/2 game AL West lead. They've done that while getting little from the first base and DH positions -- Mitch Moreland and Prince Fielder have an 83 OPS+ and a 67 OPS+, respectively -- and only three starts from Yu Darvish. Good health and bullpen help is the priority here going into the second half.

[Spy Fox]

SportsLine has some interesting odds algorithms according to this.

Nobody else had the O's particularly close to 31% Postseason Odds on OD or quite at 79% now. And how are the Mets only at 15% when they're 47-41 and currently tied for a playoff spot?

[Jagwar]

There are a lot of teams on that list with a projected 0% chance of making the playoffs. Any pitchers we might be able to poach from them?

Rays

Athletics

Twins

Yankees (very close to 0%)

Angels

Diamondbacks

Phillies

Brewers

Padres

Reds

Braves

Rockies

[ChuckS]

There are a lot of teams on that list with a projected 0% chance of making the playoffs. Any pitchers we might be able to poach from them?

Rays

Athletics

Twins

Yankees (very close to 0%)

Angels

Diamondbacks

Phillies

Brewers

Padres

Reds

Braves

Rockies

Yes. See the trade deadline possibilities thread (page 1). I identified about 15 starters total from these teams that I expect to be available.

[Filmstudy]

SportsLine has some interesting odds algorithms according to this.

Nobody else had the O's particularly close to 31% Postseason Odds on OD or quite at 79% now. And how are the Mets only at 15% when they're 47-41 and currently tied for a playoff spot?

The 79% now is way too high. I definitely take the field for better than a 3-1 price. Based on the comment about the Giants, I think the 31% may have been as of 4/22, which meant the Orioles 7-game winning streak to start the season may already have been included. Not sure I am interpreting correctly.