Fangraphs' Cameron: Manny is #11 in overall trade value

[Frobby]

Every year, Dave Cameron ranks the top 50 players in trade value. His analysis takes into account not only performance, but age, remaining years under team control, size of contract, etc. This year, he ranks Manny #11:

The fact that Manny Machado can't crack the top 10 this year this year speaks to the insane depth of young talent currently dominating the sport. Machado is also a legitimate AL MVP candidate, a superstar who just turned 24 and is coming into his own as one of baseball's premier players. He even slid back over to shortstop this year, showing his defensive excellence wasn't reserved for just third base. He's everything you could want in a franchise player -- other than being able to make sure he would stick around for the long-term, anyway. With just two arbitration years remaining after this season, Machado is headed for a monstrous free-agent paycheck, and while I'm sure the Orioles would love to keep him, the price will probably be prohibitive. Machado's willingness to bet on himself by going year to year is going to pay off in a big way, and that coming massive paycheck is the only reason Machado finds himself outside the top 10 this year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-11-to-20/

[Can_of_corn]

Needless to say Manny is the only O's who is going to make this list of 50+ names (including honorable mentions). According to the chat he had a few days ago Schoop wasn't a threat to crack the list.

[Frobby]

Needless to say Manny is the only O's who is going to make this list of 50+ names (including honorable mentions). According to the chat he had a few days ago Schoop wasn't a threat to crack the list.

There are guys on the list who haven't even played in the majors yet, like Yoan Moancada of the Red Sox, as well as some guys who've barely had a cup of coffee like Lucas Giolito of the Nats. In fairness, I believe Bundy was very high on the list back in 2012.

Edit -- I was right about Bundy:

29. (NR) Dylan Bundy, SP, Baltimore - Under Team Control for 6+ Years

Yes, he's a pitcher in A-ball. Yes, there are a ton of risks that go along with inexperienced teenage arms. Bundy is not your normal 19-year-old, however. The stuff is terrific, but he's advanced beyond his years as a pitcher, and several team officials told me that they'd have him in their big league rotation right now. This is higher than I'm comfortable putting an A-ball pitching prospect, to be honest, but I was convinced to move him up by folks in the game who insist that he's ready to get big league hitters out right now. Given the upside, there are a lot of teams that would love to take a risk on Dylan Bundy.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2012-trade-value-25-21/

Sigh....

[Can_of_corn]

There are guys on the list who haven't even played in the majors yet, like Yoan Moancada of the Red Sox, as well as some guys who've barely had a cup of coffee like Lucas Giolito of the Nats. In fairness, I believe Bundy was very high on the list back in 2012.

My point is that the O's don't currently have a lot of young, inexpensive talent.

[Frobby]

My point is that the O's don't currently have a lot of young, inexpensive talent.

Yes, I understood the point. Maybe Bundy aces the first half of next season and creeps back on to this list next year. We can dream, can't we?

[WEAVERMAN]

My point is that the O's don't currently have a lot of young, inexpensive talent.

That's why we can afford to sign MM to extension. We don't need excuses from DD, we need action.

[Can_of_corn]

That's why we can afford to sign MM to extension. We don't need excuses from DD, we need action.

I would think the presence of young, inexpensive talent would be a reason they could afford to sign MM to an extension.

[Frobby]

I would think the presence of young, inexpensive talent would be a reason they could afford to sign MM to an extension.

Agreed. We can't pay an entire team at free agent prices. Personally, though, I'd rather pay Manny than just about anyone else. He'll probably outperform his contract for a good five years even if we pay a top-of-market price. Fangraphs says he's been worth about $160 mm in roughly 3.5 years of playing time in the majors, and he's only getting better (worth $54 mm last year, on pace to be worth $64 mm this year).

[Frobby]

The top 10:

Trout

Correa

Bryant

Seager

Lindor

Rizzo

Betts

Arenado

Goldschmidt

Harper

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-1-to-10/

[Aristotelian]

That's why we can afford to sign MM to extension. We don't need excuses from DD, we need action.

The second Manny signs, his trade value would plummet due to his $300M+ contract. He could be the ticket to singlehandedly restock the whole top of the system. Not that I am advocating this, but the lack of talent works both ways in the extend or trade debate.

[Hallas]

The second Manny signs, his trade value would plummet due to his $300M+ contract. He could be the ticket to singlehandedly restock the whole top of the system. Not that I am advocating this, but the lack of talent works both ways in the extend or trade debate.

If he signs for a slightly below-market deal his trade value will probably be around the same. The uncertainty past the next 2 years is what keeps it down.

10/300 is probably on the low end, and probably means there will be excess value for a large percentage of the deal.

[blangtang]

Why is Manny not stealing bases like he did last season?

[Can_of_corn]

It could be because he isn't leading off.

It could be because with all the power in the lineup he doesn't want to make outs on the basepaths.

It could be that he bulked up over the offseason and lost a step.

Or all three.

Not like he has ever been a real threat to steal.