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Let's Predict the Top 4 Picks


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Every few weeks it's fun to try our hand at guessing what the first picks will be... it's that time again.

1 Rays >

2 Pirates >

3 Royals >

4 Orioles >

Personally, with new information coming in almost daily, the guesswork changes quite a bit. My thoughts on one day can alter the next... and I'm not alone in that. :D

Have fun and take a shot at guessing who goes where.

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1. Rays - T. Beckham

2. Pirates - B. Matusz

3. Royals - Crow

4. Orioles - Alvarez

or

1. Rays - T. Beckham

2. Pirates - Alvarez

3. Royals - Crow

4. Orioles - Smoak

or

1. Rays - T. Beckham

2. Pirates - B. Matusz

3. Royals - Alvarez

4. Orioles - Smoak

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1. Rays - T. Beckham

2. Pirates - B. Matusz

3. Royals - Crow

4. Orioles - Alvarez

or

1. Rays - T. Beckham

2. Pirates - Alvarez

3. Royals - Crow

4. Orioles - Smoak

or

1. Rays - T. Beckham

2. Pirates - B. Matusz

3. Royals - Alvarez

4. Orioles - Smoak

Going out on a limb there! I'd like to see this:

1. Rays - T. Beckham

2. Pirates - Matusz

3. Royals - Crow

4. Orioles - Alvarez

But I think we'll see this:

1. Rays - T. Beckham

2. Pirates - Alvarez

3. Roylas - Crow

4. Orioles - Matusz

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TAM -- Posey

PIT -- Matusz/T-Bex

KAN -- Crow

BAL -- T-Bex/Alvarez/Smoak/G-Bex

If, IF, somehow both T. Beckham and Pedro Alvarez were available to us at the fourth pick, which do you think Jordan would prefer? (question not just directed at you)

Also, if T. Beckham, Alvarez and Matusz are the top three picks, who do we turn to? Smoak's big bat? The second best pitcher (arguably) in Crow? Does G. Beckham legitimately enter the equation? Would we look at either Hosmer or Posey?

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Just copy and pasted my post from the BA entry:

I think there is a very good chance we take Brian Matusz, the LHP from University of San Diego. While I would prefer a college bat (Alvarez), JJ may think Matusz is just too good to pass up.

I'm hoping either the Royals or Pirates take Matusz with the #2 or #3 pick because I don't think we'll take Aaron Crow, the RHP from Missouri.

If I had to guess what Joe Jordan's top four choices were, I would say:

1 - Pedro Alvarez

2 - Tim Beckham

3 - Brian Matusz

4 - Justin Smoak

I can easily see Eric Hosmer or Gordan Beckham sneaking into the #4 spot over Justin Smoak.

My best guess of how it will go:

1 - TB - Tim Beckham

2 - PITT - Pedro Alvarez (new ownership and management make the big splash they've been promising)

3 - KC - Brian Matusz

4 - Balt. - Justin Smoak (Wieters is able to convince JJ to draft his high school teammate)

Jordan's top three picks are taken 1-3 and he's grabs #4 on his board.

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My best guess at this juncture...

1. Rays > Buster Posey, Catcher, Florida State... With Baseball America's observation that Tim Beckham has not quite shown the projected super skillset expected of him, he may drop a few spots, and with the tremendous Pedro Alvarez continuing to struggle after his hand injury and with Scott Boras as his agent, the Rays may just go for the best fit for their team; Posey. Great defender and solid hitting catcher in an organization bereft of his skills. Not necessarily the best player, but for the Rays he may just be their 'need' target.

2. Pirates > Pedro Alvarez, 3B/1B, Vanderbilt... Depending on what you think the Pirates will do from an organizational draft philosophy standpoint, the Pirates could stay the typical course of going slot or cheaper, and avoiding paying for better available talent, OR you are of the belief that the fans will riot if the new management team just picks up where the last left off and the new guys will try to begin a new era of hope. I just think it makes sense that change is coming... hence Boras client and symbol of hope- Pedro Alvarez.

3. Royals > Tim Beckham, SS, H.S. (GA)... So many viable options, but the Royals go with the best talent available in a close call. Gordon Beckham and Brian Matusz are seriously considered, but Tim Beckham fits the mold of Dayton Moore choices... young stud hitters. With Mike Moustakas' eventual shift to 2B or 3B, Beckham fits in beautifully for the future at the most important position on the field... SS.

4. Orioles > Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia... As with KC before them, the Birds are in the enviable position to choose from among a few outstanding candidates whose talent levels are very close, and ones that are organizational needs as well. Gordon Beckham, Brian Matusz, Eric Hosmer and Justin Smoak are the most discussed options, but Baltimore has a glaring weakness at the most important position on the field; shortstop... so GBeck is the choice. The O's see him as an average defender at SS, but an above average hitter, providing good average and power from a virtual hole in the lineup. With no evident potential trades to fill the void, the likely College Player of the Year is the man... albeit by a hair over Matusz.

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My best guess at this juncture...

1. Rays > Buster Posey, Catcher, Florida State... With Baseball America's observation that Tim Beckham has not quite shown the projected super skillset expected of him, he may drop a few spots, and with the tremendous Pedro Alvarez continuing to struggle after his hand injury and with Scott Boras as his agent, the Rays may just go for the best fit for their team; Posey. Great defender and solid hitting catcher in an organization bereft of his skills. Not necessarily the best player, but for the Rays he may just be their 'need' target.

2. Pirates > Pedro Alvarez, 3B/1B, Vanderbilt... Depending on what you think the Pirates will do from an organizational draft philosophy standpoint, the Pirates could stay the typical course of going slot or cheaper, and avoiding paying for better available talent, OR you are of the belief that the fans will riot if the new management team just picks up where the last left off and the new guys will try to begin a new era of hope. I just think it makes sense that change is coming... hence Boras client and symbol of hope- Pedro Alvarez.

3. Royals > Tim Beckham, SS, H.S. (GA)... So many viable options, but the Royals go with the best talent available in a close call. Gordon Beckham and Brian Matusz are seriously considered, but Tim Beckham fits the mold of Dayton Moore choices... young stud hitters. With Mike Moustakas' eventual shift to 2B or 3B, Beckham fits in beautifully for the future at the most important position on the field... SS.

4. Orioles > Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia... As with KC before them, the Birds are in the enviable position to choose from among a few outstanding candidates whose talent levels are very close, and ones that are organizational needs as well. Gordon Beckham, Brian Matusz, Eric Hosmer and Justin Smoak are the most discussed options, but Baltimore has a glaring weakness at the most important position on the field; shortstop... so GBeck is the choice. The O's see him as an average defender at SS, but an above average hitter, providing good average and power from a virtual hole in the lineup. With no evident potential trades to fill the void, the likely College Player of the Year is the man... albeit by a hair over Matusz.

Great analysis Greg... BUT...

If Alvarez and Tim Beckham are off the board, I think the Orioles will select Matusz over Gordon Beckham.

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Great analysis Greg... BUT...

If Alvarez and Tim Beckham are off the board, I think the Orioles will select Matusz over Gordon Beckham.

I'm with Greg on this one. I think there has been way too much smoke around Posey for there to be no fire. By now, you all know about my manlove for Posey, but I would still consider drafting him a mild mistake, when Alvarez is clearly a superior hitter. Either way, I still think regardless of what happens above us, we'll take a bat.

I'm fine with Beckham, but my preference is Alvarez, then Smoak.

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Great analysis Greg... BUT...

If Alvarez and Tim Beckham are off the board, I think the Orioles will select Matusz over Gordon Beckham.

That's very possible, as I alluded to. It's a tough call going into the last few weeks, but Matusz would certainly be a good pick.

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1. Devil Rays - Brian Matusz

2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez

3. KC - Aaron Crow

4. Orioles - Justin Smoak

I don't mind the Smoak pick, but I have to believe if Tim Beckham falls to us, we will select him.

Also, the D-Rays are pretty deep in the pitching depth, so I don't see them taking Matusz.

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