Hats off to AJ -- Once again a model of consistency

[evenparthrough9]

One way to think about batting order is how you maximize team production putting individuals (numbers held constant) in different spots in the order. But the state people have shown pretty convincingly that that effect is negligible.

A different way to think about it is how you might maximize each individuals production by moving them around in different spots. AJ is hitting .300/.332/.837 in the leadoff spot. It is possible he is trying to hit more like a leadoff hitter, and/or that he hits better without the pressure of 2 outs. Either way, he started producing almost immediately when moved to that spot. Buck isn't going to change that. The question is not "who is the best leadoff hitter" but "what spot is the best for each player". Leadoff seems to be working pretty well for AJ and is helping to minimize some of the bad tendencies that seem to make him a bad leadoff hitter.

I want my lead off man on base as much as possible. .337 isn't doing that for me. You have to be able to manufacture runs when the team isn't hitting homeruns. You can't do that if you're not on base. How would Jose Reyes at DH have looked with this team? Just throwing out ideas.

[Frobby]

I realize this is a small sample size, but let's take a look at Josh Bell. In 27 ABs he's walked 9 times. He's only struck out twice. I know he's not going to hit .407 or have a 1.250 OPS but you see what swinging at pitches you can do damage with can do.

I'm not disagreeing with the premise that a hitter is likely to do better hitting pitches in the strike zone vs. pitches outside the strike zone. I'm saying that the ability to recognize whether a pitch is going to be a strike or not and get the swing started in time to act on that recognition is not the same for every hitter. It's not just a matter of deciding what kind of hitter you are going to be.

[weams]

I'm not disagreeing with the premise that a hitter is likely to do better hitting pitches in the strike zone vs. pitches outside the strike zone. I'm saying that the ability to recognize whether a pitch is going to be a strike or not and get the swing started in time to act on that recognition is not the same for every hitter. It's not just a matter of deciding what kind of hitter you are going to be.

Or even if you are one of the best 350 at the skill in the word. Deciding does little.

[evenparthrough9]

I'm not disagreeing with the premise that a hitter is likely to do better hitting pitches in the strike zone vs. pitches outside the strike zone. I'm saying that the ability to recognize whether a pitch is going to be a strike or not and get the swing started in time to act on that recognition is not the same for every hitter. It's not just a matter of deciding what kind of hitter you are going to be.

You think? And you think we just happen to have a lineup full of those types?

[weams]

You think? And you think we just happen to have a lineup full of those types?

I think half of the best 350 hitters in the world are that type. In fact, i know it.

[PaulFolk]

Just realize AJ is a .778 career OPS guy. He is what he is. No need to try to make him a star. In comparison, Mookie Betts is doing stuff in his second year that AJ won't ever do in his career. I like AJ but not in the lead off position.

Except that Jones is a star. He's a five-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glover, the leader and most recognizable face of the Orioles, he does national commercials for MLB apps and the Boys and Girls Clubs, etc. He's a star in any context of the word you wish to define it.

You're going to rag on the guy for not being Mookie Betts? Why don't we rag on Chris Davis for not being Mike Trout?

[PaulFolk]

I've kept track of AJ's ab's since he started batting lead off (because, frankly I did not think it was a good idea). In 80 games this year leading off, Jones has 18 singles, 2 doubles, 4 hrs & (only) 4 walks .... this is a .300 ba & a .350 OBP .... not too shabby(if my math is correct... big 'if'). He also has 10 strikeouts. The Orioles have scored 45 first-inning runs. Of those, Jones has scored 13 first-inning runs.

Getting on base is Jones' responsibility in the first ab. He does so 35% of the time. It's the following batters that are responsible to bring him home.

You can save yourself a lot of work by just going to Baseball Reference. It lists Jones' stats for leading off the game (see "1st Batter G"): http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=jonesad01&year=2016&t=b#leado

[weams]

Except that Jones is a star. He's a five-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glover, the leader and most recognizable face of the Orioles, he does national commercials for MLB apps and the Boys and Girls Clubs, etc. He's a star in any context of the word you wish to define it.

You're going to rag on the guy for not being Mookie Betts? Why don't we rag on Chris Davis for not being Mike Trout?

He may in fact be the true face of the MLB.

[evenparthrough9]

Except that Jones is a star. He's a five-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glover, the leader and most recognizable face of the Orioles, he does national commercials for MLB apps and the Boys and Girls Clubs, etc. He's a star in any context of the word you wish to define it.

You're going to rag on the guy for not being Mookie Betts? Why don't we rag on Chris Davis for not being Mike Trout?

Will Harris and Odoubel Herrara were all stars. Mean very little

[weams]

Will Harris and Odoubel Herrara were all stars. Mean very little

They are not stars. Who other stars reference in their commercials. Unlike Adam Jones. "Jonesy. Whoa. It's deep!"

[evenparthrough9]

They are not stars. Who other stars reference in their commercials. Unlike Adam Jones. "Jonesy. Whoa. It's deep!"

Nice commercial but I'm mainly talking about on field performance

[Frobby]

Will Harris and Odoubel Herrara were all stars. Mean very little

Jones has been a star by any reasonable definition. Just not a superstar.

Back to the point as to whether plate discipline is an innate ability versus a learned skill -- it's both, of course. But I think it's about 75% ability and 25% learned skill. Adam Jones can hit a ball harder than Nick Markakis. Nick Markakis can discern a ball from a strike better than Adam Jones. That's mostly just the abilities they have, IMO.

[Aristotelian]

I want my lead off man on base as much as possible. .337 isn't doing that for me. You have to be able to manufacture runs when the team isn't hitting homeruns. You can't do that if you're not on base. How would Jose Reyes at DH have looked with this team? Just throwing out ideas.

It really doesn't matter if your #1 OBP is .337 and #3 is .400 vs #1 OBP .400 and #3 .337. Especially if flipping them would cause your #2 to OBP .280. If putting AJ or Schoop in the leadoff spot causes them to put up better numbers, you do it. So far it is working with AJ. He has a .332 OBP in the leadoff spot, .281 in the #3.

The leadoff spot only actually leads off once a game more than the other 8 spots. The difference between a good leadoff hitter and a bad leadoff hitter is going to be about 5 baserunners per 100 games. A couple of those 5 are going to score whether your leadoff guy bats leadoff or #3.

[El Gordo]

You think? And you think we just happen to have a lineup full of those types?

Pretty much, the lineup is the result of two GM's and the high cost of the all around great hitters like Votto or Trout. So settle for a tem full of Kim's or a team full of CD's and Trumbo's. The Kim's are actually harder to find. But lineup construction only matters in the first inning. After that you simply would like to have a table setter type followed by a slugger. On our team it might look like this:

Kim

MannY

Davis

Trumbo

Pearce

Alvarez

Jones

Schoop

Hardy

Wieters

[weams]

Nice commercial but I'm mainly talking about on field performance

I am talking about what makes a star a star.