Which Draft Prospect Would You Not Want?

[markpolis]

If Posey is a top talent, why would we defer to a lesser talent just because we have a top catching prospect already in the system?

Maybe we could deal Wieters or Posey in a year and get a better shortstop prospect than Gordon Beckham.

Take the better talent and sort things out later.

My point exactly. Posey is not the top talent. He is very good and deserving of a Top 10 pick. He is not a special talent, like Matt Wieters.

If you were grading out players and Posey was a 95 and the others (Alvarez, Beckham, Matusz) graded out at 90-91 then I think you would have to seriously consider selecting Posey. However that is not the case.

IMO, Alvarez and Matusz clearly grade out above Posey with other players such as Smoak and Gordon Beckham grading out the same or slightly below Posey. That being said, do you select Posey (a catcher) who grades out the same as Smoak (1B) or Gordon Beckham (SS) or below Alvarez (3B), Tim Beckham (SS) and Matusz (SP)?

You always take the top talent, but when the talent is equal then you select the player based on need within the organization. At best, Posey is equal to the other players the Orioles have the opportunity to draft at #4. Therefore, I think it would be a big mistake to draft Posey.

[PlumOriole]

For the record I should have voted Posey not Alvarez. Misread the poll. You can delete that if you can.

[markpolis]

I never said anything about not picking Alvarez over Posey -- I just wouldn't be upset if we ended up with Posey (which was the question).

Wieters is a special player. He is also 6'5". Do you see him catching and staying healthy for 10 years? Mauer has already started to break down.

Mauer (games played):

05 -- 131

06 -- 140

07 -- 109

How about a similar young talent (breaking in at the same time) at the less physically demanding position of 3b?

David Wright (games played):

05 -- 160

06 -- 154

07 -- 160

Totaling 94 more games, or 31 more games per season.

How about a 1b?

Teix over last 3 years (including his freak injury last year):

05 -- 162

06 -- 162

07 -- 132

Totaling 76 more games, or 25 more games per season.

Pujols (three worst seasons according to games played in bold):

01 -- 161

02 -- 157

03 -- 157

04 -- 154

05 -- 161

06 -- 143

07 -- 158

In worst seasons he totals 74 more games than Mauer, averaging 25 more a year.

Would you rather have your #4/#5 hitter play 140 games a year, or 160? Take into account Wieters will likely miss significant time in at least one season, due to injury.

You would probably also argue with me that a 6'4" 225lb. player would never be able to play 2632 consecutive games and have a Hall of Fame career as a shortstop.

[Stotle]

You would probably also argue with me that a 6'4" 225lb. player would never be able to play 2632 consecutive games and have a Hall of Fame career as a shortstop.

Cute, but a stawman argument.

The point is, if you choose to address it, do you expect 6'5" Wieters to stay healthy throughout his career constantly crouching and standing up at C?

And, would you rather have Wieters's bat for 160 games a year, or 140?

Finally, if you'd like to show me some all-star catchers that average over 150 games a year, I'd be grateful. Preferably someone large, though he need not be as big a Wieters.

[Greg Pappas]

I never said anything about not picking Alvarez over Posey -- I just wouldn't be upset if we ended up with Posey (which was the question).

Wieters is a special player. He is also 6'5". Do you see him catching and staying healthy for 10 years? Mauer has already started to break down.

Mauer (games played):

05 -- 131

06 -- 140

07 -- 109

How about a similar young talent (breaking in at the same time) at the less physically demanding position of 3b?

David Wright (games played):

05 -- 160

06 -- 154

07 -- 160

Totaling 94 more games, or 31 more games per season.

How about a 1b?

Teix over last 3 years (including his freak injury last year):

05 -- 162

06 -- 162

07 -- 132

Totaling 76 more games, or 25 more games per season.

Pujols (three worst seasons according to games played in bold):

01 -- 161

02 -- 157

03 -- 157

04 -- 154

05 -- 161

06 -- 143

07 -- 158

In worst seasons he totals 74 more games than Mauer, averaging 25 more a year.

Would you rather have your #4/#5 hitter play 140 games a year, or 160? Take into account Wieters will likely miss significant time in at least one season, due to injury.

Where Wieters eventually bats in the lineup in no way should dictate which position he plays in the field. Wieters is a special talent at catcher, you don't already move him off his position before he ever plays a game at the big league level. We drafted him as a catcher, he'll remain one.

I've been one to recognize the benefit of having a second catcher like Posey, however, with excellent options that will be available at pick #4 at positions of need, we should go another route and leave Posey for another team. That is if he is even around at pick #4. Wieters can simply DH on his 'off' days behind the plate. Catch 110'ish games, DH 35-40 games. Seems like a good idea.

[Stotle]

Where Wieters eventually bats in the lineup in no way should dictate which position he plays in the field. Wieters is a special talent at catcher, you don't already move him off his position before he ever plays a game at the big league level. We drafted him as a catcher, he'll remain one.

I've been one to recognize the benefit of having a second catcher like Posey, however, with excellent options that will be available at pick #4 at positions of need, we should go another route and leave Posey for another team. That is if he is even around at pick #4.

Respectfully, this doesn't make much sense. I'm presenting facts that show the only other catcher of comparable size on a big league team has started to break down after three years. Even in his healthy years he only plays 140 games. Wieters is potentially a much better bat. Of course it matters where he hits in the lineup. If he were 6'5", a plus defender/plus arm catcher that projected to bat 8th and hit .265, you don't mind if he misses 20-30 games a year. Why, oh why, would you just accept that one of the best bats in your lineup is only going play in 140 games, tops?? Why do you think V-Mart splits time at 1b now?

Further, it is irrelevant that Wieters has caught thus far in his career. He has never played a season as long as a professional season, and he has never played at a level as physically demanding as he will be each year until he maxes out at the ML level. It is incredibly short-sighted, in my opinion, to simply say don't draft a legit top 5 talent because he is a catcher.

[markpolis]

Respectfully, this doesn't make much sense. I'm presenting facts that show the only other catcher of comparable size on a big league team has started to break down after three years. Even in his healthy years he only plays 140 games. Wieters is potentially a much better bat. Of course it matters where he hits in the lineup. If he were 6'5", a plus defender/plus arm catcher that projected to bat 8th and hit .265, you don't mind if he misses 20-30 games a year. Why, oh why, would you just accept that one of the best bats in your lineup is only going play in 140 games, tops?? Why do you think V-Mart splits time at 1b now?

Further, it is irrelevant that Wieters has caught thus far in his career. He has never played a season as long as a professional season, and he has never played at a level as physically demanding as he will be each year until he maxes out at the ML level. It is incredibly short-sighted, in my opinion, to simply say don't draft a legit top 5 talent because he is a catcher.

IF Posey was that much better than the other options, then yes it would be short-sighted. However, Posey is not better than the other options that will be available to us with the #4 pick. You don't draft him because we already have the very best catching prospect in baseball. Joe Jordon did not draft Wieters to play first base. He may not be catching six or seven years down the line, but he will be catching 140 games a season for the next five or six years.

Do you waste the #4 overall pick on a player you project to be platooning? Worse case is Wieters catches 120 games a year for the next five or six seasons. Do you draft a player who projects to play 40 games a year?

This organization is virtually devoid of positional prospects (other than Wieters, Rowell and perhaps Reimold). Posey is a very nice player, but he's not a special talent. He is not better than Alvarez, Beckham, Matusz or Smoak. I would argue he is inferior to each of them. (with the exception of Smoak) All of those players would fill serious needs within our organization.

Posey does not. Therefore I think it's foolish for the Orioles to even consider drafting Posey.

[Stotle]

IF Posey was that much better than the other options, then yes it would be short-sighted. However, Posey is not better than the other options that will be available to us with the #4 pick. You don't draft him because we already have the very best catching prospect in baseball. Joe Jordon did not draft Wieters to play first base. He may not be catching six or seven years down the line, but he will be catching 140 games a season for the next five or six years.

Do you waste the #4 overall pick on a player you project to be platooning? Worse case is Wieters catches 120 games a year for the next five or six seasons. Do you draft a player who projects to play 40 games a year?

This organization is virtually devoid of positional prospects (other than Wieters, Rowell and perhaps Reimold). Posey is a very nice player, but he's not a special talent. He is not better than Alvarez, Beckham, Matusz or Smoak. I would argue he is inferior to each of them. (with the exception of Smoak) All of those players would fill serious needs within our organization.

Posey does not. Therefore I think it's foolish for the Orioles to even consider drafting Posey.

2008

Wieters -- HiA/AA

Posey -- Rk

2009

Wieters -- AAA/ML (early season call-up)

Posey -- HiA/AA

2010

Wieters -- ML

Posey --AA/AAA/ML (september call-up, Wieters DHs or 1b when Posey plays)

2011

Wieters -- ML (V Mart style 1b/C 150 games)

Posey -- ML (80 games or so catching)

2012

Wieters -- ML (1b/dh 162 games)

Poesy -- ML (c 140 games)

There isn't anything foolish about that. Further, my statement is based on the fact that I view Posey as better than G-Beckham and slightly ahead of Smoak. So am I pulling for Posey? No. Would I be disappointed if they draft him? Absolutely not.

[markpolis]

Cute, but a stawman argument.

The point is, if you choose to address it, do you expect 6'5" Wieters to stay healthy throughout his career constantly crouching and standing up at C?

And, would you rather have Wieters's bat for 160 games a year, or 140?

Finally, if you'd like to show me some all-star catchers that average over 150 games a year, I'd be grateful. Preferably someone large, though he need not be as big a Wieters.

I assume you mean strawman? And how is this a strawman argument? Prior to Ripken, no one thought a man of his size and stature could play the shortstop position, no less for 15 straight years without missing a game.

[markpolis]

2008

Wieters -- HiA/AA

Posey -- Rk

2009

Wieters -- AAA/ML (early season call-up)

Posey -- HiA/AA

2010

Wieters -- ML

Posey --AA/AAA/ML (september call-up, Wieters DHs or 1b when Posey plays)

2011

Wieters -- ML (V Mart style 1b/C 150 games)

Posey -- ML (80 games or so catching)

2012

Wieters -- ML (1b/dh 162 games)

Poesy -- ML (c 140 games)

There isn't anything foolish about that. Further, my statement is based on the fact that I view Posey as better than G-Beckham and slightly ahead of Smoak. So am I pulling for Posey? No. Would I be disappointed if they draft him? Absolutely not.

You have Wieters playing only ONE full season at catcher before switching to a 50-50 platoon in 2011? Interesting.

[Greg Pappas]

2008

Wieters -- HiA/AA

Posey -- Rk

2009

Wieters -- AAA/ML (early season call-up)

Posey -- HiA/AA

2010

Wieters -- ML

Posey --AA/AAA/ML (september call-up, Wieters DHs or 1b when Posey plays)

2011

Wieters -- ML (V Mart style 1b/C 150 games)

Posey -- ML (80 games or so catching)

2012

Wieters -- ML (1b/dh 162 games)

Poesy -- ML (c 140 games)

There isn't anything foolish about that. Further, my statement is based on the fact that I view Posey as better than G-Beckham and slightly ahead of Smoak. So am I pulling for Posey? No. Would I be disappointed if they draft him? Absolutely not.

Wieters bat is likely not special at 1B, but projects so as a catcher. No way you draft Posey and move a special talent like Wieters off his position. I understand that you are basing your opinion on Wieters being unable to handle the position defensively down the road... fair point, but how far down the road? I think Wieters will be just fine for the perceivable future (5-8 years) and a likely All-Star at that.

[Greg Pappas]

Respectfully, this doesn't make much sense. I'm presenting facts that show the only other catcher of comparable size on a big league team has started to break down after three years. Even in his healthy years he only plays 140 games. Wieters is potentially a much better bat. Of course it matters where he hits in the lineup. If he were 6'5", a plus defender/plus arm catcher that projected to bat 8th and hit .265, you don't mind if he misses 20-30 games a year. Why, oh why, would you just accept that one of the best bats in your lineup is only going play in 140 games, tops?? Why do you think V-Mart splits time at 1b now?

Further, it is irrelevant that Wieters has caught thus far in his career. He has never played a season as long as a professional season, and he has never played at a level as physically demanding as he will be each year until he maxes out at the ML level. It is incredibly short-sighted, in my opinion, to simply say don't draft a legit top 5 talent because he is a catcher.

While Markpolis and I see this the same way, and he has already responded, I still wished to respond myself.

You seem to be of the opinion that Wieters will be unlikely to sustain a fairly healthy number of games by remaining at catcher becauise he is a big man at 6' 5... thus, if a talent like Posey were to be taken it would please you knowing that Wieters' career would likely be extended. I do understand this... however, would you prefer 'Wieters at 1B and Posey at C' to 'Smoak at 1B and Wieters at C'?

Wieters projects as an All-Star caliber Catcher, but merely an above average 1B'man. I'd rather keep Wieters behind the plate.

BTW, I know you said that you'd prefer to pick a couple other players over Posey, and that you are merely basing your answer on having Posey as a viable option.

[Stotle]

I assume you mean strawman? And how is this a strawman argument? Prior to Ripken, no one thought a man of his size and stature could play the shortstop position, no less for 15 straight years without missing a game.

The issue was that size would prevent mobility required for SS, not cause injury. Different concern.

[Stotle]

You have Wieters playing only ONE full season at catcher before switching to a 50-50 platoon in 2011? Interesting.

Yes, though that is best case scenario in which both he and Posey are ML ready quickly. Also, I'd have the switch sooner but I am giving time for the transition to 1b, and for Posey breaking in. Ultimately, I think a platoon is counter-productive for the pitching staff. I don't buy into the let Poesy/Wieters DH/C each season.

[bluedog]

Where Wieters eventually bats in the lineup in no way should dictate which position he plays in the field. Wieters is a special talent at catcher, you don't already move him off his position before he ever plays a game at the big league level. We drafted him as a catcher, he'll remain one.

I've been one to recognize the benefit of having a second catcher like Posey, however, with excellent options that will be available at pick #4 at positions of need, we should go another route and leave Posey for another team. That is if he is even around at pick #4. Wieters can simply DH on his 'off' days behind the plate. Catch 110'ish games, DH 35-40 games. Seems like a good idea.

There is also nothing wrong with having Wieters catch 120 games and then be available as a pinch hitter off the bench. The Yanks do that a lot with their starters -- instead of using them at DH, they sit them until they need a great hitter in a key situation off the bench.