Which Draft Prospect Would You Not Want?

[Greg Pappas]

Again I ask, why is Posey considered a top 5 talent, worthy of being picked #1 overall if he is not a special talent? TAM is apparently leaving potential all stars on the board so they can take a good but not special player? Wouldn't they be better off trading TEX for a one of Salty/Teagarden/Laird and drafting a stud?

I think you all have great thoughts on the draft, I'm just not getting where the anti-Posey stuff is coming from. He is legit and, while not possessing the power potential of Wieters, is absolutely a candidate to become one of the better catchers in all of baseball when he eventually reaches the bigs.

Maybe if you guys could post some stuff indicating weaknesses in his game, or reasons he isn't "special" it'd help me out. Are these scouting write-ups you're reading? Articles from BA? I'm just curious. I'd like to know if I'm way off, and it seems like I must be.

I'm actually a Posey fan, and have mentioned on numerous occasions that Posey could certainly be an all-star caliber catcher... so I'm not anti-Posey in any way, shape or form. My points against Posey are solely based on wanting other positional talent (that are team needs) that will be available when we pick.

[allstar1579]

Do Mauer's injuries not concern you with regards to the beating Wieters's knees will be taking once he is the bigs? Just curious. When I see Mauer now struggling to stay healthy for a season, I think of Wieters and shudder. I don't want my 30 HR bat out of the lineup for a quarter of the season on average by the time he's a three year veteran.

No it doesn't because injuries aren't guaranteed to anyone, and just because Mauer is, doesn't mean Wieters will be. I do agree that catchers take a huge beating, and they may have shorter careers if they remain there the entire time, but I also believe there have been guys that have had many successful power years as a catcher. I don't buy the theory that a platoon of good catchers will ever work, and I don't think that either of them reach full value if moved to a new position which there is no guarantee they would be effective.

If Posey was the only special player in this draft, then fine, no problem, but I can easily place 4 people in front of him without thinking twice (admittedly they can all be moved around), so that being said, then no I think it would be a waste to draft him when we have so many other needs.

[McNulty]

Do Mauer's injuries not concern you with regards to the beating Wieters's knees will be taking once he is the bigs? Just curious. When I see Mauer now struggling to stay healthy for a season, I think of Wieters and shudder. I don't want my 30 HR bat out of the lineup for a quarter of the season on average by the time he's a three year veteran.

I don't know if it changes things at all, but Wieters is thicker in the legs than Mauer is; much thicker. I don't know if that will make his injury risk higher or lower. I tend to think that maybe he'll be a little better with his leg strength and conditioning. Most catchers that have long careers are built like a rock. He's just a really tall rock.

With that said, I'm just as nervous as you are.

[markpolis]

No it doesn't because injuries aren't guaranteed to anyone, and just because Mauer is, doesn't mean Wieters will be. I do agree that catchers take a huge beating, and they may have shorter careers if they remain there the entire time, but I also believe there have been guys that have had many successful power years as a catcher. I don't buy the theory that a platoon of good catchers will ever work, and I don't think that either of them reach full value if moved to a new position which there is no guarantee they would be effective.

If Posey was the only special player in this draft, then fine, no problem, but I can easily place 4 people in front of him without thinking twice (admittedly they can all be moved around), so that being said, then no I think it would be a waste to draft him when we have so many other needs.

Ding, Ding, Ding... we have a winner!

Stotle, why do you fail to see this point? We drafted Wieters last year to be our franchise catcher. Do you, HONESTLY, think Joe Jordon and the Orioles are going to select Buster Posey with our #4 overall pick? That's just crazy talk. Thankfully JJ will not make that mistake.

Don't get me wrong, I am not bashing Posey. He could very well be selected #1 overall by the D-Rays. (I hope and pray he is)

Is Posey that much better than Alvarez, Tim Beckham or Matusz? Should we draft him over those players? Absolutely not. That is why I believe it would be a mistake on our part to take Posey with our pick. It's just from an organizational point of view it makes no sense.

[crawdad]

I typically just read here, but I thought I would enter the fray.

1. Catchers do not often play 150 games a year.

2. If Weiters' bat is strong enough to move to first base according to the Orioles scouting department (and he does appear to be the best bat at his level), then the Orioles may have a hole at catcher.

3. If his bat is strong enough, you would want him at another position because he would be able to give you about 30 more starts of above average offense.

4. Now, if another catcher shows up and looks to be a special player too and seems more traditional in terms of how big a catcher should be . . . then it might make sense to draft that catcher.

I think that is the point being made. If the Orioles select Posey, it might be because Weiters bat is much more developed than we here think it is.

I also think Stotle and others are not saying they want to draft Posey. They seem to want other players instead. What they are saying is that Posey would not make them mad if he is selected.

I personally don't want him and that is based on my baseless opinion of projecting catchers. I do understand why it is not the end of the world if he is selected. He is capable of being a number 1 pick and he could wind up in many all star game. He has a plus bat. He is clearly in the top five college bats in the draft and a catcher to boot. The dude has value. Not just trade value, but real value. Yes, Weiters was drafted as a catcher and would be a fine catcher, but he may be worth more to us offensively at another position. Plans can change if the situation warrants it. Refusing change just because you drafted a guy to catch is not a good excuse to automatically say no to one option.

[Stotle]

(1) No it doesn't because injuries aren't guaranteed to anyone, and just because Mauer is, doesn't mean Wieters will be. I do agree that catchers take a huge beating, and they may have shorter careers if they remain there the entire time, but I also believe there have been guys that have had many successful power years as a catcher. (2) I don't buy the theory that a platoon of good catchers will ever work, and I don't think that either of them reach full value if moved to a new position which there is no guarantee they would be effective.

If Posey was the only special player in this draft, then fine, no problem, but I can easily place 4 people in front of him without thinking twice (admittedly they can all be moved around), so that being said, then no I think it would be a waste to draft him when we have so many other needs.

(1) Mauer had no history of injury problems until he was asked to catch for full major league seasons. I looked and couldn't find anyone else 6'5" that hs stayed relatively healthy catching.

(2) I never said I wanted a platoon. I had one year in which Wieters was shifting to 1b and Posey was having his first season with the Orioles that I would start the transition. Otherwise, I think someone Wieters size should be shifted to 1b/dh sooner, rather than later.

[Stotle]

Ding, Ding, Ding... we have a winner!

Stotle, why do you fail to see this point? (1) We drafted Wieters last year to be our franchise catcher. Do you, HONESTLY, think Joe Jordon and the Orioles are going to select Buster Posey with our #4 overall pick? That's just crazy talk. Thankfully JJ will not make that mistake.

Don't get me wrong, I am not bashing Posey. He could very well be selected #1 overall by the D-Rays. (I hope and pray he is)

(2) Is Posey that much better than Alvarez, (3) Tim Beckham (4) or Matusz? (5) Should we draft him over those players? Absolutely not. That is why I believe it would be a mistake on our part to take Posey with our pick. It's just from an organizational point of view it makes no sense.

(1) False. We took Wieters because he was the best college bat in the draft -- he happens to play catcher. If Alvarez had been available last season we would have taken him the year after selecting 3b Rowell. Catcher has absolutely zero/nothing/nada to do with it. To say it does is just crazy talk.

(2) Never said he was

(3) never said he was

(4) never said he was

(5) If Jordan were to rank him ahead of any of these players, I would say "Yes" we should draft him.

If you draft Smoak, are you now saying you don't want to go after Teix? I'd imagine you'd still grab Teix and figure out what to do when both were ready for the ML. Why draft Alvarez? We have Rowell/Snyder/Costanzo and Markakis in RF. Are you switching him to 1b? What about going after Teix? I can make "blocked" arguments with everyone but the Beckhams. I guess that means we should only draft a SS?

I'd sure be sad if BAL passed on Posey to grab G-Bex and two years down the road Wieters is injured and switched to 1b anyway. It's short sighted. If you rank Posey lower, don't draft him. To avoid him because of Wieters isn't a smart way to go about drafting. TEX sure wasn't shy about trading for Saltalamacchia despite having Laird/Teagarden/Ramirez all above AA! That's because you don't turn down elite talent simply because you have some more of it at AA...

[Greg Pappas]

(1) False. We took Wieters because he was the best college bat in the draft -- he happens to play catcher. If Alvarez had been available last season we would have taken him the year after selecting 3b Rowell. Catcher has absolutely zero/nothing/nada to do with it. To say it does is just crazy talk...

You're convinced that we didn't draft Wieters to be our franchise catcher, but simply took the best college bat available. I disagree. Every site chat, every scouting report, every mention of Wieters has indicated that he's got All-Star potential as a catcher. His defensive mechanics, his arm, his game-calling, his leadership... all plus. In my view it was those reasons coupled with his quality power bat were the reasons we drafted him.

This debate has gone on and on, and I've read every word that you've said, and I believe that I follow your line of thinking... and while your points that Wieters may be a risk for injury because of his size is pretty well founded, I believe that scouts are convinced that he'll be just fine. If not, if he suffers an obvious catching related injury, you would be proved to be right (which wouldn't surprise me ).

Mark and I obviously see things differently than you do, but let's all hope that Wieters is able to buck the historical trend and stick behind the plate. This has been a fun debate in my view.

[crawdad]

You're convinced that we didn't draft Wieters to be our franchise catcher, but simply took the best college bat available. I disagree. Every site chat, every scouting report, every mention of Wieters has indicated that he's got All-Star potential as a catcher. His defensive mechanics, his arm, his game-calling, his leadership... all plus. In my view it was those reasons coupled with his quality power bat were the reasons we drafted him.

This debate has gone on and on, and I've read every word that you've said, and I believe that I follow your line of thinking... and while your points that Wieters may be a risk for injury because of his size is pretty well founded, I believe that scouts are convinced that he'll be just fine. If not, if he suffers an obvious catching related injury, you would be proved to be right (which wouldn't surprise me ).

Mark and I obviously see things differently than you do, but let's all hope that Wieters is able to buck the historical trend and stick behind the plate. This has been a fun debate in my view.

Ok, you guys seem to be misunderstanding each other.

1. Weiters can be an All-Star catcher.

2. If his bat is really this good . . . he could be an All-Star 1B.

3. If the benefit of having him as a catcher for 120 games does not outweigh having him play another 30 as he would at another position . . . then it makes sense for him to go to a different position.

4. If we have another All-Star catcher, that benefit is clearly reduced.

A "just fine" catcher catches about 120-140 games a season. A "just fine" first baseman plays 150.

[JimPalmerJr]

So who was the best college bat in last year's draft ?

I agree with most of Stotle's points about catching being an injury prone, career shortening position. It's a position that is glove first, bat is a bonus.

If Snyder's bat doesn't get going I would put him back behind the plate next year. Costanza should already be there.

That said, I wouldn't draft Posey unless these 2 guys were off the board:

Alvarez

Smoak

Posey would be a toss-up with Matusz and T Beckham.

I'd probalby go Matusz due to the lack of lefties in the system

- yes, I'm writing both Loewen and Patton off until they show otherwise

I'd then trade from the excess of right handed pitching to get a SS, bat, etc.

Disappointed list is below:

Hosner is too young ( why T Bex is a tier 2 in my opinion )

G Beckham is too small to be a top five ( or even top 10 pick )

Crow - got plenty of hard throwing right handed pitchers

Anybody else

[crawdad]

I think Snyder's arm is toast and a move back behind the plate is unlikely.

I could be wrong on that.

[markpolis]

(1) False. We took Wieters because he was the best college bat in the draft -- he happens to play catcher. If Alvarez had been available last season we would have taken him the year after selecting 3b Rowell. Catcher has absolutely zero/nothing/nada to do with it. To say it does is just crazy talk.

If you honestly think Wieters playing catcher had nothing to do with the Orioles drafting him, well then, no sense debating with a crazy man.

Are you stating teams draft players based solely on their hitting skills? Now that is crazy. Would TB be considering drafting Posey #1 overall if he was still playing SS? Absolutely not.

Greg and I believe Wieters will be catching 140 games a season for at least the next 5-7 years. Does Posey's bat project enough for him to play elsewhere? If he were still playing SS would he be considered a Top 5 pick?

I don't get your whole signing Tex argument? You are the one advocating the move of Wieters to first, not me. Are you going to sign Tex to a $100mil contract to DH? The whole Tex signing thing is an entirely different debate.

You are basing your entire argument on the fact Wieters is 6'5" and can't sustain a career behind the plate. Do you believe because something has never been done, it can't be done? That's pretty narrow-minded thinking.

There have been plenty of tall catchers who have had long careers behind the plate. Carlton Fisk, Mike Piazza, Jason Varitek, Javy Lopez (6'3"), Bob Boone, Lance Parrish, Bob Melvin (6'4"), Sandy Alomar (6'5") played the position for over 10 years in the majors.

[Stotle]

If you honestly think Wieters playing catcher had nothing to do with the Orioles drafting him, well then, no sense debating with a crazy man.

Are you stating teams draft players based solely on their hitting skills? Now that is crazy. Would TB be considering drafting Posey #1 overall if he was still playing SS? Absolutely not.

Greg and I believe Wieters will be catching 140 games a season for at least the next 5-7 years. Does Posey's bat project enough for him to play elsewhere? If he were still playing SS would he be considered a Top 5 pick?

I don't get your whole signing Tex argument? You are the one advocating the move of Wieters to first, not me. Are you going to sign Tex to a $100mil contract to DH? The whole Tex signing thing is an entirely different debate.

You are basing your entire argument on the fact Wieters is 6'5" and can't sustain a career behind the plate. Do you believe because something has never been done, it can't be done? That's pretty narrow-minded thinking.

There have been plenty of tall catchers who have had long careers behind the plate. Carlton Fisk, Mike Piazza, Jason Varitek, Javy Lopez (6'3"), Bob Boone, Lance Parrish, Bob Melvin (6'4"), Sandy Alomar (6'5") played the position for over 10 years in the majors.

Craw has summed up my position prett well. I don't think the bat is the sole issue in drafting positional talent, but it's the driving factor, considering the frequency with which players change positions. I guess the best way to put it is:

1. Bat

2. Is his defense passable (meaning will he be able to play a position at the ML-level)

3. Is his defense good (meaning will he play a valuable position at the ML-level)

4. Is his defense elite (meaning will he play a valuable position well or a less-valuable position very well at the ML-level)

Games played for Sandy Alomar (the 6'5" you mention):

90 -- 132

91 -- 51

92 -- 89

93 -- 64

94 -- 80

95 -- 66

96 -- 127

97 -- 125

98 -- 117

99 -- 37

00 -- 97

01 -- 70

02 -- 89

03 -- 75

04 -- 50

05 -- 46

06 -- 46

07 -- 8

That doesn't fill me with a lot of confidence. You?

Bob Melvin (6'4")

85 -- 41

86 -- 89

87 -- 84

88 -- 92

89 -- 85

90 -- 93

91 -- 79

92 -- 32

93 -- 77

94 -- 20

Javy Lopez (6'4")

94 -- 80

95 -- 100

96 -- 138

97 -- 123

98 -- 133

99 -- 65

00 -- 134

01 -- 128

02 -- 109

03 -- 129

04 -- 150

05 -- 103

06 -- 94

This is a little better, but still not optimal for your middle of the order bat.

The other catchers you listed I see listed as 6'3" or smaller (using baseball-reference). I think the general idea that shifting Wieters to get an extra 25-30 games out of him is still sound reasoning. I ultimately would rather have Alvarez, T-Bex, Smoak, Matusz than Posey, but I would not fault Jordan for selecting Posey if the O's decide Posey is the best talent.

[Stotle]

You're convinced that we didn't draft Wieters to be our franchise catcher, but simply took the best college bat available. I disagree. Every site chat, every scouting report, every mention of Wieters has indicated that he's got All-Star potential as a catcher. His defensive mechanics, his arm, his game-calling, his leadership... all plus. In my view it was those reasons coupled with his quality power bat were the reasons we drafted him.

This debate has gone on and on, and I've read every word that you've said, and I believe that I follow your line of thinking... and while your points that Wieters may be a risk for injury because of his size is pretty well founded, I believe that scouts are convinced that he'll be just fine. If not, if he suffers an obvious catching related injury, you would be proved to be right (which wouldn't surprise me ).

Mark and I obviously see things differently than you do, but let's all hope that Wieters is able to buck the historical trend and stick behind the plate. This has been a fun debate in my view.

I am not betting against Wieters. I am just putting forth an argument as to why Posey would not be a disaster of a pick.

This has been fun. I like being called crazy because it makes me examine my stance and really question what I'm saying.

[Stotle]

Greg and I believe Wieters will be catching 140 games a season for at least the next 5-7 years. Does Posey's bat project enough for him to play elsewhere? If he were still playing SS would he be considered a Top 5 pick?

Well, if Wieters were to rest every sixth game he'd only play 135 games, so I think expecting 140 for 5-7 years is aggressive. Posey's bat projects everywhere that isn't a traditional "power" position. He could be a top 5 pick, but I can't say with certainty without putting him at another position and seeing what happens. Maybe he's more rested as a LF and hits even better? Who knows? As has already been stated, Posey is having a better offensive year than Wieters ever had in college.

I don't get your whole signing Tex argument? You are the one advocating the move of Wieters to first, not me. Are you going to sign Tex to a $100mil contract to DH? The whole Tex signing thing is an entirely different debate.

Well, I think the Teix argument is a silly one, but one you are essentially making with Wieters. I think even the best products in the draft are far from sure things, considering baseball draftees are so much more difficult to project than draftees in other sports. To say that Wieters is the future after amonth of HiA ball (don't take that as a slam on Matt) seems premature. What if Wieters was available again in this draft at #4? Would we pass on him? I don't know, but I wouldn't make that decision based on who I have at AA (which is where Wieters should be by the first week of June).

You are basing your entire argument on the fact Wieters is 6'5" and can't sustain a career behind the plate. Do you believe because something has never been done, it can't be done? That's pretty narrow-minded thinking.

I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm saying it's highly unlikely. That isn't narrow-minded, it's taking a fact set and reaching a conclusion. Greg put it best when he said he's "hoping Wieters can buck the historical trend and stay behind the plate". I hope he can, too. But how can I be upset if Jordan and AM decide they don't want to risk it and draft Posey to catch and ultimately slide Wieters to 1b/dh?