Which Draft Prospect Would You Not Want?

[allstar1579]

(1) Mauer had no history of injury problems until he was asked to catch for full major league seasons. I looked and couldn't find anyone else 6'5" that hs stayed relatively healthy catching.

(2) I never said I wanted a platoon. I had one year in which Wieters was shifting to 1b and Posey was having his first season with the Orioles that I would start the transition. Otherwise, I think someone Wieters size should be shifted to 1b/dh sooner, rather than later.

No, that's fine, I said all along, I get where you are coming from. I just don't think that because he is 6'5 he will necessarily be more of an injury risk. If we start him at catcher and he starts missing chunks of time because of injury, then you are right, we should look at moving him. But don't draft him as a catcher (a chance at one of the best ever) and then move him for fear of injury before he even gets hurt.

If we give him a few seasons, and then injuries pop up, we can look at another offensive catcher then, but if you draft another all-star catcher, it doesn't alleviate injury concerns, now it just means we have another great bat we have to worry about getting hurt like you said. Why not take a guy at 1B or SS who has less injury risk with an equal bat. I wouldn't argue with you at all if Posey's bat was that far and away better than everyone else's but it's really not. Before this season he was thought of as a good player, not a no. 1 pick, he is a late riser, much like G. Beckham, who you have a problem with. I will never say Posey might not be worth taking at no. 1 because he is an offensive catcher, and they are rare, but to say you don't think there are 4 other offensive products this year that are at least as good if not better than Posey with the bat?

[Stotle]

No, that's fine, I said all along, I get where you are coming from. I just don't think that because he is 6'5 he will necessarily be more of an injury risk. If we start him at catcher and he starts missing chunks of time because of injury, then you are right, we should look at moving him. But don't draft him as a catcher (a chance at one of the best ever) and then move him for fear of injury before he even gets hurt.

If we give him a few seasons, and then injuries pop up, we can look at another offensive catcher then, but if you draft another all-star catcher, it doesn't alleviate injury concerns, now it just means we have another great bat we have to worry about getting hurt like you said. Why not take a guy at 1B or SS who has less injury risk with an equal bat. I wouldn't argue with you at all if Posey's bat was that far and away better than everyone else's but it's really not. Before this season he was thought of as a good player, not a no. 1 pick, he is a late riser, much like G. Beckham, who you have a problem with. I will never say Posey might not be worth taking at no. 1 because he is an offensive catcher, and they are rare, but to say you don't think there are 4 other offensive products this year that are at least as good if not better than Posey with the bat?

My top offensive bats would be Alvarez/Smoak/Alonso/Hosmer/Posey/T-Bex/G-Bex. Alonso gets dinged for defense, Hosmer gets dinged for $$, leaving Alvarez/Smoak/Posey/the Beckhams. I see merit in selcting all but Gordon at #4.

[allstar1579]

My top offensive bats would be Alvarez/Smoak/Alonso/Hosmer/Posey/T-Bex/G-Bex. Alonso gets dinged for defense, Hosmer gets dinged for $$, leaving Alvarez/Smoak/Posey/the Beckhams. I see merit in selcting all but Gordon at #4.

I agree with you. I would look at positional need a bit too though and put Tbex above Posey, and Gordon slightly below him because of risk/reward.

[Stotle]

I agree with you. I would look at positional need a bit too though and put Tbex above Posey, and Gordon slightly below him because of risk/reward.

Yeah, on overall package I would go Alvarez/T-Bex/Posey/Smoak. On bat alone, I go Alvarez/Smoak/Posey/T-Bex solely because I'm not sure whether the power ultimately comes for Tim. He doesn't need to be Tejada, but it would be nice to get 15-20 HR.

[McNulty]

Can I interject a thought here? I understand both sides of the argument as far as value behind the plate for 120 games or so versus a first basemen for 150. But the simple fact is that an offensive catcher along the lines of, say, Victor Martinez back there for even 100 games is a ridiculous advantage for any team. First base is where you shove a bat that can't play anywhere else (usually). We have the luxury of the DH for that purpose however, but this brings me to my main point.

The Pirates (with Doumit) and Indians (with Martinez) are currently changing the mold of how catchers are being "platooned" shall we say throughout the course of the season. The Indians put Vic at first about once every 2 weeks last year, and DH about the same rate. They also gave him a total off day about once every 10 days. The Pirates are now coming around to seeing the value of having Doumit back there, inspite of having another good catcher in Paulino.

My point is, that if we are creative and judicious in our handling of his playing time, there's no reason that Wieters shouldn't be able to catch 120-130 games a year, and start a total of 145-155. I think that is the absolute best way to not only maximize his value, but minimize the injury risks.

I'm with you Stot, that it wouldn't be nearly the disaster everyone thinks if we did pick Posey, but I can't see a scenario where it would be justified. Wieters was most definately picked to be the franchise catcher, regardless of whether or not he was the best bat in the draft. He is a really special player (Keith Law said a once a decade talent), but certainly the O's have a plan if his body can't hack it behind the plate. He would still be a very valuable player to us at first, but not nearly on the scale as behind the plate.

The dual catcher notion is certainly an interesting debate, but I can't see how anyone would do that knowing that Smoak is, in my mind, clearly a better bat, a switch hitter, and plays great defense at first.

[Stotle]

Can I interject a thought here? I understand both sides of the argument as far as value behind the plate for 120 games or so versus a first basemen for 150. But the simple fact is that an offensive catcher along the lines of, say, Victor Martinez back there for even 100 games is a ridiculous advantage for any team. First base is where you shove a bat that can't play anywhere else (usually). We have the luxury of the DH for that purpose however, but this brings me to my main point.

The Pirates (with Doumit) and Indians (with Martinez) are currently changing the mold of how catchers are being "platooned" shall we say throughout the course of the season. The Indians put Vic at first about once every 2 weeks last year, and DH about the same rate. They also gave him a total off day about once every 10 days. The Pirates are now coming around to seeing the value of having Doumit back there, inspite of having another good catcher in Paulino.

My point is, that if we are creative and judicious in our handling of his playing time, there's no reason that Wieters shouldn't be able to catch 120-130 games a year, and start a total of 145-155. I think that is the absolute best way to not only maximize his value, but minimize the injury risks.

I'm with you Stot, that it wouldn't be nearly the disaster everyone thinks if we did pick Posey, but I can't see a scenario where it would be justified. Wieters was most definately picked to be the franchise catcher, regardless of whether or not he was the best bat in the draft. He is a really special player (Keith Law said a once a decade talent), but certainly the O's have a plan if his body can't hack it behind the plate. He would still be a very valuable player to us at first, but not nearly on the scale as behind the plate.

The dual catcher notion is certainly an interesting debate, but I can't see how anyone would do that knowing that Smoak is, in my mind, clearly a better bat, a switch hitter, and plays great defense at first.

I agree. Plus, Smoak may be athletic enough to handle LF, which means he doesn't preclude grabbing an established veteran at 1b. Personally, I can not see getting Posey, but I would not be upset if the Orioles as an organization arrived at the decision that he was the best player there.

Good points, McNutty [sic]

[McNulty]

I agree. Plus, Smoak may be athletic enough to handle LF, which means he doesn't preclude grabbing an established veteran at 1b. Personally, I can not see getting Posey, but I would not be upset if the Orioles as an organization arrived at the decision that he was the best player there.

Good points, McNutty [sic]

I've been waiting for someone to call me McNutty. You were the first, so rep to you.

[allstar1579]

I have to admit, this has been one of the best debates I have seen on the Hangout in my years stalking and then posting here. Nice to have some other guys I can compare analysis on minor league guys and prospects.

[McNulty]

I have to admit, this has been one of the best debates I have seen on the Hangout in my years stalking and then posting here. Nice to have some other guys I can compare analysis on minor league guys and prospects.

I agree. There is a weird little niche over here in the Amateur Draft threads with about 10 or so of us.

I certainly don't agree with everyone, but no one could ever say that the options aren't at least educated here.

[markpolis]

I agree. There is a weird little niche over here in the Amateur Draft threads with about 10 or so of us.

I certainly don't agree with everyone, but no one could ever say that the options aren't at least educated here.

I agree. Stotle makes some very good arguments and I truly appreciate his knowledge and insight.

At this point I guess it's safe to say we agree to disagree. But the debate has been fun.

[Stotle]

Agreed. It's been a fun talk. Let's hope Wieters stays healthy and none of this actually has to play out.

[420gamewinners]

Hello everybody. Love your work Greg. I have been reading for a long time.

The O's will pick one of two: Smoak or Matuza from what I have learned.:clap3:

[markpolis]

Hello everybody. Love your work Greg. I have been reading for a long time.

The O's will pick one of two: Smoak or Matuza from what I have learned.:clap3:[/QUOTE]

And you have learned this from a credible person? If so, I'm really surprised they wouldn't take Alvarez if he is available.

[Greg Pappas]

Hello everybody. Love your work Greg. I have been reading for a long time.

The O's will pick one of two: Smoak or Matuza from what I have learned.:clap3:

Welcome to posting heaven! LOL

Thanks for the kind mention. Did you mean that by reading the posts here and elsewhere that you have determined we'll take either Matusz or Smoak, OR did you mean that you have an inside source or such that you've gathered that info from?

[Stotle]

I would find it hard to believe BAL had settled on one of two people this early on.