Bedard's History Does Not Make Him Untouchable

[NICK]

Can't people just enjoy the best pitcher we have?

I know, Thank you, geez guys i been waiting years, hell since moose left to see us have a quality arm that has actually worked out, now everyone wants to ship him off for prospects or whatever, i'm not trading erik for anything, if he won't sign with us then you move him the deadline before his last year, and for people that say but you'll get less of an offer because he's a free agent, no you won't , other teams will compete against each other and offer great packages for the BEST, yea, the best lefty not named Santana. Geez my fellow O's fans, enjoy this well it lasts, am I the only one that remembers watching the jose mercades, pat rapps , jason johnson and sidney ponsons of the past few oriole years. we should be worshipping this guy.

[mweb]

Quick question: Should the amount of batters faced per inning be factored into xFIP since one is likely to strike out more batters when given more opportunity? Or would the increase in walks due to more batters faced cancel that out? Or does it not matter once in a large sample size?

The reason I ask is because 8 k's vs 32 ab's shouldn't be considered as good as 8 k's in 28 ab's given the same amount of innings pitched.

[NoVaO]

Quick question: Should the amount of batters faced per inning be factored into xFIP since one is likely to strike out more batters when given more opportunity? Or would the increase in walks due to more batters faced cancel that out? Or does it not matter once in a large sample size?

The reason I ask is because 8 k's vs 32 ab's shouldn't be considered as good as 8 k's in 28 ab's given the same amount of innings pitched.

Not sure if it should be consideredi n xFIP, but what you are asking about is essentially the % of batters Bedard Ks. He right now has a K% of 30%, which is good for best in the majors, and it really isn't all that close. The next closest is Burnett at 26.4%. This also can be shown using walks...he walks 7.3% of batters.

[Sports Guy]

NoVaO pretty much answered your question, but I'll add something.

I very much prefer K% to K/9 when evaluating pitchers.

I'll tell you exactly when I figured this out. In his first three seasons, Rodrigo Lopez had K-Rates of 6.20 / 6.22 / 6.31 (along with declining BB-Rates). I once used that as evidence that he was getting better. But then I looked at his K%'s for those three seasons - 16.89% / 15.68% / 16.99%. No, not a perfect example, but it still showed the flaw in K-Rate.

This makes some sense.

I mean if pitcher A strikes out 6 batters per 9 and pitcher B strikes out 6 per 9 but faces 5 more batters a game, pitcher A is obviously a better K pitcher.

[mweb]

I agree with much of what you wrote.

I agree wholeheartedly that you should use more than just one stat when evaluating pitchers - and have never argued otherwise. The reason I think xFIP ERA does a better job of telling me how a pitcher actually performed than ERA is that it measures what he truly controls - walks, strikeouts, and to a lesser extent home runs. Notice that I didn't say a pitcher has no control over the number of home runs he allows. I agree he has some control - due to both the number of flyballs he allows, and to an ability to allow lesser contact than another pitcher.

As for taking a "half-season" of a great xFIP ERA to anoint Bedard as a top 10 pitcher; I'm not doing that. I'd bet that if you took his xFIP ERA from June 1 last year until now that he'd rank in the top 10 in MLB. I'm also basing my conclusion on more than just xFIP ERA.

I disagree completely with anyone who doesn't think Bedard is one of the top 5-10 pitchers in baseball, and one of the top 3-5 in the AL.

As for your question on hitters - no idea. I spend very little time analyzing hitter's stats.

Well if you pick the start date the most favors Bedard, yeah, maybe he is top 5-10, but I just don't see the logic in picking last June 1st as the start date unless we're simply trying to help Bedard out.

His MLB ranks since the start of 2006:

xFIP: 18, 1

FIP:15, 7

DIPS: 16, 6

K/G: 20, 1

ERA: 19, 22

ERA+: 20, 24

Obviously he's trending in the right direction with the advanced stats, although the actual ERA is not. I would also go back further than the that while coming up with the best pitcher lists, and that obviously doesn't help Bedard. So for the last two years, the predictive stats have him in the top 10 for this year, top 20 for last season, while his actual ERA+ has him in the 20-25 range.

[mweb]

NoVaO pretty much answered your question, but I'll add something.

I very much prefer K% to K/9 when evaluating pitchers.

I'll tell you exactly when I figured this out. In his first three seasons, Rodrigo Lopez had K-Rates of 6.20 / 6.22 / 6.31 (along with declining BB-Rates). I once used that as evidence that he was getting better. But then I looked at his K%'s for those three seasons - 16.89% / 15.68% / 16.99%. No, not a perfect example, but it still showed the flaw in K-Rate.

Thanks. So does that slightly hurt the accuracy of a stat like FIP since it doesn't factor in batters faced?

[TyCobb]

NoVaO pretty much answered your question, but I'll add something.

I very much prefer K% to K/9 when evaluating pitchers.

I'll tell you exactly when I figured this out. In his first three seasons, Rodrigo Lopez had K-Rates of 6.20 / 6.22 / 6.31 (along with declining BB-Rates). I once used that as evidence that he was getting better. But then I looked at his K%'s for those three seasons - 16.89% / 15.68% / 16.99%. No, not a perfect example, but it still showed the flaw in K-Rate.

What is Guts, K% compared to the average?

[Baltimoron]

I very much prefer K% to K/9 when evaluating pitchers.

I'll tell you exactly when I figured this out. In his first three seasons, Rodrigo Lopez had K-Rates of 6.20 / 6.22 / 6.31 (along with declining BB-Rates). I once used that as evidence that he was getting better. But then I looked at his K%'s for those three seasons - 16.89% / 15.68% / 16.99%. No, not a perfect example, but it still showed the flaw in K-Rate.

Which is what?

[Baltimoron]

The reason I ask is because 8 k's vs 32 ab's shouldn't be considered as good as 8 k's in 28 ab's given the same amount of innings pitched.

Or maybe one guy had better luck on batted balls and/or luck on home runs and/or a better defense and/or has a good pickoff move and/or a strong armed catcher and thus got more non-K outs per plate appearance.

[mweb]

Or maybe one guy had better luck on batted balls and/or luck on home runs and/or a better defense and/or has a good pickoff move and/or a strong armed catcher and thus got more non-K outs per plate appearance.

As far as the luck, sure, that probably would be part of it, but I don't see why that's an or situation compared to what I laid out. It still causes a difference in % k's per batter, and thus a flaw imo. And again, I don't think it's all luck, especially hr's. Also, if one has a higher LD%, they're likely to give up more hits. Or if a pitcher is better at inducing double plays, he might face less batters, although he may give up more hits due to more ground balls, yet less extra base hits.

And if a pitcher does have a great pickoff move and is great at holding runners, shouldn't that matter? FIP doesn't account for that, yet a guy like that is going to save some runs compared to DC, and it's not because of luck.

[Leitch]

I don't think there's much more than a negligible difference in how valuable strikeout rate as a percentage of batters faced as opposed to strikeouts per nine innings is as a measure of performance other than perhaps in a vacuum.

It all depends on what the outcomes of all the other plate appearances are. You don't need to look at K% to tell you that Johan Santana is a better pitcher than Daniel Cabrera because he strikes out 2.8% more of the batters he faced last year despite having a slightly lower K/9.

[Baltimoron]

As far as the luck, sure, that probably would be part of it, but I don't see why that's an or situation compared to what I laid out. It still causes a difference in % k's per batter, and thus a flaw imo. And again, I don't think it's all luck, especially hr's. Also, if one has a higher LD%, they're likely to give up more hits. Or if a pitcher is better at inducing double plays, he might face less batters, although he may give up more hits due to more ground balls, yet less extra base hits.

And if a pitcher does have a great pickoff move and is great at holding runners, shouldn't that matter? FIP doesn't account for that, yet a guy like that is going to save some runs compared to DC, and it's not because of luck.

I'm only responding to this:

The reason I ask is because 8 k's vs 32 ab's shouldn't be considered as good as 8 k's in 28 ab's given the same amount of innings pitched.

My point is that there are many possible explanations for this discrepancy that are consistent with the first pitcher being as good as the second.

My point is not that the first pitcher is as good as the second, I'm just saying your data doesn't support that conclusion.

If it might be luck or he's really good or he gets ground balls or his defense is good or...., then we can't say for sure (but the degree of sure can grow over time). That's my only point.

[mweb]

I'm only responding to this:

My point is that there are many possible explanations for this discrepancy that are consistent with the first pitcher being as good as the second.

My point is not that the first pitcher is as good as the second, I'm just saying your data doesn't support that conclusion.

If it might be luck or he's really good or he gets ground balls or his defense is good or...., then we can't say for sure (but the degree of sure can grow over time). That's my only point.

I undestand all that, all I'm saying is 8 k's vs 28 pa's > 8 k's vs 32 pa's, and that's not accounted for in some stats.

[Baltimoron]

I undestand all that, all I'm saying is 8 k's vs 28 pa's > 8 k's vs 32 pa's, and that's not accounted for in some stats.

And many of those stats *seek* to exclude it, because they are after skill, not results.

[Baltimoron]

Notice that I didn't say a pitcher has no control over the number of home runs he allows. I agree he has some control - due to both the number of flyballs he allows, and to an ability to allow lesser contact than another pitcher.

You kid, right?