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Are the Rays the Real Deal?

Jagwar

By Jagwar
in MLB

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YardBirds13 Major Leaguer Rising Star

YardBirds13

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He looks like a stud reliever.

Funny that while he had pretty good numbers in college, he never put up dominant numbers like that.

One reason is that Long Field/Mauck Stadium (JMU's Home field) is a notorious hitters park, lots of fly balls carry out for home runs, and there is a short porch in right field, so hitters can get a lot of cheap home runs. Glad to see Ryan succeeding as a reliever.

BTW, JMU's current team won their first ever CAA championship last weekend and will play in the NCAA tournament this weekend in the Raleigh regional. They open with NC State, and could have a match-up with South Carolina and OH Draft board favorite Justin Smoak later in the regional.

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TyCobb Perennial All-Star

TyCobb

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Funny that while he had pretty good numbers in college, he never put up dominant numbers like that.

One reason is that Long Field/Mauck Stadium (JMU's Home field) is a notorious hitters park, lots of fly balls carry out for home runs, and there is a short porch in right field, so hitters can get a lot of cheap home runs. Glad to see Ryan succeeding as a reliever.

BTW, JMU's current team won their first ever CAA championship last weekend and will play in the NCAA tournament this weekend in the Raleigh regional. They open with NC State, and could have a match-up with South Carolina and OH Draft board favorite Justin Smoak later in the regional.

Go Dukes!!!!

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davearm All-Star

davearm

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There are other picks besides the first round and if we go above slot for quality guys who slip again like Arrietta, then there is every reason to believe we will emerge from this draft with as much or more talent than Tampa Bay.

Separately, something emerging teams have going for them when they are competing is a pick-up in attendance that provides management some additional coin to make acquisitions at the deadline.

I'm not saying this year's TB team is for real, but the strong future ahead of that franchise for the next five to seven years is very real.

The longer TB hangs around the more dangerous they become because they have the quality prospects to shore up weak areas with all-star talent.

Well then somebody needs to circulate a memo or something.

Tonight the Rays drew ~11K.

Meanwhile the out-of-it Mariners drew 30K.

32K in Cleveland...

40K in Philly...

41K at Busch...

25K at OPACY for the Yanks...

At least the Mets still have fans (48K of 'em)...

A ho-hum Brewers/Braves matchup drew 31K...

Last-place SD drew 19K for a game against the Nats...

Oakland drew 17K for a game against the Jays...

An NL Central 5v6 yawner with PIT at CIN was seen by ~16K...

Heck even KC hosting the Twins outdrew the Rays (~13K).

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GeorgiaBird Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

GeorgiaBird

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It seems historically that success never equals overnight attendance. Think back to the Marlins. I think the Rays management is aware of that and, while probably disappointed, are not stressing. The Tampa Bay area is a big area. It isn't New York, but it isn't a tiny market either.

I remember when the Bucs were the laughing stock of the NFL and folks said they would never draw. Then a new stadium and winning happened. Hard to predict the future, but I think the Rays are hoping history repeats itself.

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GeorgiaBird Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

GeorgiaBird

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Interesting (but admittedly I don't know what conclusions you can draw) way to look at attendance. This was emailed to me and I didn't fact check, but this is the Rays' average attendance for non-weekend games vs. the Rangers year by year. The author would suggest that while attendance stinks, it is up 25% year over year, midweek vs. the same opponent.

2005: 8,807 (April)

2006: 7,221 (May)

2006 (second series): 8,750 (August)

2007: (in Orlando – May): 8,972

2008: 11,204 (May)

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davearm All-Star

davearm

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Just because I'm that nerdy, I carried this analysis out for all of TB's home schedule to date. Five of their home series so far in '08 have a direct parallel (month, weekday/weekend, opponent) in one or more of the past three seasons.

[u]Month	WD/WE	Opp	 05-07	  2008	Change	 Pct[/u]Apr	WD	NYY	21,369	19,898	-1,471	- 7%Apr	WD	TOR	14,642	 8,933	-5,709	-39%Apr	WE	BOS	28,443	32,900	 4,458	 16%May	WD	NYY	16,730	17,851	 1,121	  7%[u]May	WD	TEX	 8,272	11,204	 2,932	 35%[/u]	Total	18,139	18,021	  -118	 -1%

So attendance was down for the first two matched series, up for the last three, and basically unchanged over the entire set of five.

Now it seems worth considering that only since late in April (at the very earliest) should any sort of attendance impact from the Rays' on-field success be expected. It's not as though folks were considering the Rays' position in the standing when deciding whether to head to the ballpark in the first few weeks of April.

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GeorgiaBird Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

GeorgiaBird

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That is interesting. Thanks for doing the work.

As an aside it also (kinda) supports another conclusion I have jumped to without looking at data, based purely on the Yanks series at Camden... Yankee bandwagon fans are no longer coming out the way they used to. Poor souls haven't won a WS in nearly a decade, and apparently it is getting to them. :)

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  • 3 weeks later...
BaltimoreTerp Hangout Grand Counsel

BaltimoreTerp

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Look for an announcement today or tomorrow that the new stadium talk will be greatly slowed down. No new waterfront stadium for at least the next 5 years, and the Rays and the city are going to start looking at other options.

Portland is nice this time of year...

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