O's plus 3 other teams battling for WC. Baltimore and Boston for Division.

[Pat Kelly]

At this point there are only 3 teams plus the O's in position to capture a WC spot. You may disagree but don't believe NY, Houston or Detroit have realistic shots. The O's still have a reasonable shot at the division if within 1 game at the start of the Red Sox series.

In terms of remaining games and record would rank things as follows:

Best Record/finish - Seattle. 78-69. Had won 8 straight prior to last night's loss. They will regroup but even going 1-1 for the remainder of the series their finish could look like this.

HOU 1-1 TOR 2-1

@MIN 2-1 @HOU 2-1

OAK 3-1

Finish 10-5. Final record 88-69.

Toronto. 81-66. Tough Schedule with five more games on west coast, home against NY and O's, close at Fenway.

@LAA 1-1 @SEA 1-2

NY 3-1 BAL 2-1 @ BOS 1-2

Finish 8-7. Final record 89-93. Edge out SEA for WC2. Could easily go 0-3 in SEA or 2-2 against NY or get swept by Red Sox in Ortiz' last weekend & miss the playoffs.

Boston. 83-64. Obviously in the best position but after this weekend go on a 10 game road trip before closing at home against the Blue Jays. Need NY to win at least one game in this series and then it's all about the O's -Red Sox 4 game series. (how can every game NOT be sold out?!)

NYY 1-1

@BAL 2-2 @ TB 2-1 @ NY 1-2

TOR 2-1

Finish 8-7. Final record 91-71.

O's. 81-66. Need to finish 10-5 to TIE Boston for the division. I think that is the best case scenario for the O's and that will not be easy. If Boston goes 10-5 and finishes with 93 win, they win the division title. At this point need to win every other game assuming a split with Boston and 1-2 in Toronto. 11-4 however does not seem realistic but likely the only way to win the division outright. Every game matters, no more excuses, will need to see gritty shutdown pitching (no more Longoria or Betts HRs!) and hot hitting from Jones, Manny, Davis or someone else to really step up. Again this is going to be a fun, stressful couple of weeks.

[backwardsk]

I'm not sure why one would write off Detroit. Three games back, just like Seattle, and they have a weak schedule. 9 games against Minny, Atlanta, and KC. Then some of the 4 of the games against Cleveland could be when Cleveland's clinched.

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[Pat Kelly]

Updated

Seattle. 79-70. So far matching above projections

TOR 2-1

@MIN 2-1 @HOU 2-1

OAK 3-1

Finish 9-4. Final record 88-74.

Adding Detroit now 79-70.

@ MIN 2-1

KC 2-1, CLE 2-2 (struggle against CLE)

@ATL 2-1

Finish 8-5. Final Record 87-75.

Toronto 81-66.

If follow earlier projection

@SEA 1-2

NY 3-1 BAL 2-1 @ BOS 1-2

Finish 7-6 (seems reasonable) Final record 88-74.

Boston 85-64.

@BAL 2-2 @ TB 2-1 @ NY 1-2

TOR 2-1

Finish 7-6. Projected Final record 92-70. Likely division winner. Still could sweep NY and Toronto. Only way for O's to have chance at division is if they go 3-1 or 4-0 vs Sox which seems highly unlikely.

Baltimore 82-67.

BOS 2-2 AZ 2-1

@ TOR 1-2 @ NY 2-1

Finish 7-6. Projected Final record 89-73.

Two losses to TB hurt. Could improve things if sweep AZ (+1) and/or NY (+1), win 2 games in TOR (+1) or of course win 3/sweep BOS. Longshot 10-3 to tie Boston. 8-4 likely guarantees the WC1 slot. Silver lining 6-1 over the rest of the homestand would wrap up a WC slot and keep division hopes alive.

Overall

Detroit last team out/just misses

SEA and TOR tie for WC2 -1 game playoff

WC1 - Os

AL East BOS