Face facts: Freddie Bynum is not the answer at SS

[Sports Guy]

You can't just discount a part of the puzzle because one guy is terrible at it. Clearly LH would be much better IF he could hit a double about once every 15 at bats. When he comes to the plate with two outs and a runner on first there is almost ZERO chance that runner is getting home because two consecutive hitters have to reach base. That isn't something that should be shrugged off.

You're falling into a pattern of lowered expectations with this guy IMO. You now just accept that he can't hit the ball more than 150 feet and discount it from the equation. It clearly should be a part of the equation. Over the course of 500 at bats, I'd bet that Bynum would get home a runner from 1st base or home plate (himself) about 15-20 times. I'd bet that LH would get at best 5 runs home in that situation. That clearly matters.

Slugging matters because it alleviates the need for three players to reach base in a single inning before three players make outs. When average "success" is defined as an OBP of approximately 0.331 (the avg across MLB right now), hoping for three guys to get on in a inning via single or walk AND the third guy to knock the first guy in when he reaches AND none of the outs to result in a DP is a tall order.

I am neither against LH nor for Bynum but just from visual observation the difference in their capability at the plate is staggering. I'd stick with the defense side of this argument IF your goal is to advocate LH, because the offensive side is a not your friend.

I agree...The mentality makes no sense.

And hell, even if you say to look at his BA and OBP, that sucks too.

If LH played above average defense and gave us a 340+ OBP, I think people would be fine with him, no matter what power he gave us....Now, we may want him replaced long term but at least he would be passable for now...But a 280 OBP, along with a poor slugging and average to above average defense isn't good enough to even warrant starting in AAA.

[Old#5fan]

I agree...The mentality makes no sense.

And hell, even if you say to look at his BA and OBP, that sucks too.

If LH played above average defense and gave us a 340+ OBP, I think people would be fine with him, no matter what power he gave us....Now, we may want him replaced long term but at least he would be passable for now...But a 280 OBP, along with a poor slugging and average to above average defense isn't good enough to even warrant starting in AAA.

I would be willing to bet that long term (say more than 60 games) Bynum turns out to be no better a choice and possibly worse than LH as the Orioles shortstop. I think he will make more errors and not hit significantly better. I kind of think that is what this argument centers on anyway. I stand by my stance that LH is a better choice than Bynum as the everyday SS. His fielding is a bigger advantage over Bynum than Bynum's hitting is over LH. I think LH's stats in fielding so far this year are not truly indicative of his defensive value. In other words, I think he just may have been in a fielding "slump" if there is such a thing.

[Old#5fan]

You're wrong, but it doesn't matter because nobody can make that bet with you for lots of reasons.

A - LH will never get 60 more games at SS

B - I wouldn't be surprised if Bynum doesn't get 60 games at SS in one year either

C - Nobody would ever be able to agree on the criteria for a bet with you because your definition of what matters on defense and offense is a bit, shall we say, DIFFERENT than the rest of us humans.

I not only am not wrong. I am fairly certain about it. I predict you will see it firsthand yourself as you continue to watch Bynum. He just isn't very good at the position. His hitting is also overated by many here. He isn't significantly better than LH at the plate, and his fielding is going to show to be worse very soon.

[Frobby]

I would be willing to bet that long term (say more than 60 games) Bynum turns out to be no better a choice and possibly worse than LH as the Orioles shortstop. I think he will make more errors and not hit significantly better. I kind of think that is what this argument centers on anyway. I stand by my stance that LH is a better choice than Bynum as the everyday SS. His fielding is a bigger advantage over Bynum than Bynum's hitting is over LH. I think LH's stats in fielding so far this year are not truly indicative of his defensive value. In other words, I think he just may have been in a fielding "slump" if there is such a thing.

1. It is possible you may turn out to be correct. If so, I'm sure the O's will revert back to LH or try some other option. But the fact is that LH did not play well enough to make a serious case that he should keep the job for now.

2. I do think there is such a thing as a fielding slump, just as there is such a thing as a fielding hot streak. Just look at Miggy's defensive numbers month-by-month last year. He played like a clown in April, like a gold glover in May, and somewhere in between the rest of the time.

3. You say LH is just in a fielding slump now, but has it occurred to you that maybe he was just on a hot streak last July? It seems you formed an indelible impression of his fielding prowess based on those few games last year, but it may have been a misleading impression. Indeed, that's what his minor league numbers, based on many more games, seem to suggest.

[ChaosLex]

Ding!

Eat!

Ding!

Eat!

<img src=http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b385/JosephJoeyJoe/richdiesslin_pavlovs_dog.gif></img>

[wildcard]

Can we go back to WC's question, please? It's the only useful part of this thread so far as I can see.

What I got out of the responses I did get to this question is that if you look at how Bynum has played in his small sample of games at SS this year he is probably above average defensively. We can see that his offense has been OK from the standpoint of avg and OBP but he has not hit for any power yet. He has been on base enough and ran the bases well enough to score some runs.

The opinion that is stated about him not being a good SS is based not on his preformance this year but rather on the fact that he has not played much SS in recent years in the minors or in the major. This is seen as a indictment of his ability to play SS because scouts, managers and baseball execs would have seen that he played there if he was any good at SS. Jon feels very strongly about this.

In my mind Bynum is innocent until proven guilty. He is getting his chance. He appears to be making the best of it. This is good for him and the O's. But a chance is all it is. He can fail as well as thrive. If Jon is right Bynum's past will catch up to him. So far I have seen anything that makes me think that will happen. He looks like he has the skills to success. It will be interesting to watch.

[Frobby]

What I got out of the responses I did get to this question is that if you look at how Bynum has played in his small sample of games at SS this year he is probably above average defensively.

Anyone who would draw a conclusion like that based on a week's worth of games is foolish, IMO. Just as it was foolish for some to conclude that Hernandez was outstanding defensively based on a few games last July.

What I think can be said, is that in the games he has played so far, Bynum has done a solid job.

[davearm]

I have to strongly disagree. For example, any basketball player who hits a last second shot that is the game winner, and who wins the game by that shot, won the game. Conversely, the game would not have ended with a win, without that particular shot. While it could be argued that every other basket was as important in such a close game, a point that I will concede, that final shot is what "won" that particular game. It is the single act that is finally or ultimately responsible for winning that particular game. It isn't called the "game winner" for nothing. Same with a walk off hit. The "team" may count that hit in its statistical totals but so does the individual player, who actually achieved the hit by his personal batting skill (or luck-however you view it). The rest of the team had nothing to do with his achieving that singular act of batting in the winning run or making the game ending shot. That was all on the shoulders of that particular individual player.

You can strongly disagree all you want. Everyone but you seems to recognize that you're wrong.

The basketball example you provided does way more to support my position than it does yours. The last-second "winning" shot doesn't mean anything without all of the other baskets that preceded it -- as you conceded.

[RShack]

3. You say LH is just in a fielding slump now, but has it occurred to you that maybe he was just on a hot streak last July? It seems you formed an indelible impression of his fielding prowess based on those few games last year, but it may have been a misleading impression. Indeed, that's what his minor league numbers, based on many more games, seem to suggest.

Personally, my assumption is that, while I was very impressed with how he did last year, that's not the basis on which the O's made their decision. I assume (rightly or wrongly) that they had guys watching him play everyday in the minors, and that AM came out of the org meeting last fall hearing that he was a whiz in the field. This is the primary basis for my conclusion that what we've seen this year is him choking rather than "revealing his true fielding ability". If this was his true fielding ability, he never would have had the chance. I think it's naive to think that the O's made their decision based on the limited number of games that we got to see him on TV. People need to separate what we see on TV from what the O's see via people throughout the entire org. This is a mistake that people routinely make around here, and it's happening yet again in this case re: the SS-ability of both LH and Bynum. LH got his chance for a reason, and Freddie got moved off SS for a reason too. What we've seen this year is typical of neither one of them.

Whether LH's choking is correctable and/or whether he'll get another chance are entirely different questions. So is whether or not Freddie can keep it up for a few months.

[wildcard]

Anyone who would draw a conclusion like that based on a week's worth of games is foolish, IMO. Just as it was foolish for some to conclude that Hernandez was outstanding defensively based on a few games last July.

What I think can be said, is that in the games he has played so far, Bynum has done a solid job.

As I look at what I posted it does sound like a conclusion. It is not. It is a impression from what I have seen and what others stated they have seen in a very small sample.

I think the rest of the post points out the Bynum at SS is an evaluation in progress with a undefined result.

As for being foolish, I will just add that to the list of adjectives that have been used to describe my opinions. Some of them positive and some of them negative.

[DrungoHazewood]

Personally, my assumption is that, while I was very impressed with how he did last year, that's not the basis on which the O's made their decision. I assume (rightly or wrongly) that they had guys watching him play everyday in the minors, and that AM came out of the org meeting last fall hearing that he was a whiz in the field. This is the primary basis for my conclusion that what we've seen this year is him choking rather than "revealing his true fielding ability". If this was his true fielding ability, he never would have had the chance. Whether choking is correctable and/or whether he'll get another chance are entirely different questions. But I think it's naive to think that the O's made their decision based on the limited number of games that we got to see him on TV.

I think the last ten years have shown us pretty conclusively that what we'd assume to be true often isn't when it comes to major league baseball, and how teams and individuals go about their jobs. You'd think video and analysis would be used all the time by everyone. It's not. You'd think players would all work out hard during the offseason, yet Aubrey Huff said it just occurred to him this past year that maybe he should be doing some baseball-specific workouts in the winter. You'd think the O's would have someone who's area of expertise is roster rules and keeping tabs on the state of the 40-man, yet they had two or three years in a row where they lost players in the rule 5 draft that they clearly wanted to keep while there were empty slots on the 40-man, or slots occupied by clearly inferior players.

I think it's far from certain that the O's had teams of scouts watching Luis Hernandez' every move at Bowie last year, and it highly doubtful they had people watching him regularly before that.

[RShack]

You can't just discount a part of the puzzle because one guy is terrible at it. Clearly LH would be much better IF he could hit a double about once every 15 at bats. When he comes to the plate with two outs and a runner on first there is almost ZERO chance that runner is getting home because two consecutive hitters have to reach base. That isn't something that should be shrugged off.

Oh, I agree with that. I'm just sick of the OPS noise, that's all. It overstates SLG and understates OBP. If people could just do the simple arithmetic and weigh OPB higher like they're suppose to, I wouldn't mind so much. Hell, even if you can't do the arithmetic, everybody here has a computer, right?

I also agree that Freddie is the better hitter. It's just a hoot to me that people who like to discount LH's performance last year due to small sample size are more than happy to trust a small sample size this year when it shows LH doing poorly and Freddie being hot. The phrase "gleeful hypocrisy" comes to mind.

In the meantime, I fully agree that LH earned his benching... I'm not making excuses for him... nor am I hoping that Bynum returns to the form that got him shifted away from SS to begin with... I hope Freddie plays like a superstar for the next 5 months.

[wildcard]

I think it's far from certain that the O's had teams of scouts watching Luis Hernandez' every move at Bowie last year, and it highly doubtful they had people watching him regularly before that.

I am not sure I understand this statement. The O's have a manager and two coaches that saw LH play at Bowie. As baseball men their job is to advise LH on how to improve and to report to O's management his progress. How much more scouting does a team need?

[Frobby]

As for being foolish, I will just add that to the list of adjectives that have been used to describe my opinions. Some of them positive and some of them negative.

Well, I hope you know that I do not consider you to be foolish at all. Far from it. I just think it would be foolish to draw a conclusion about Bynum's fielding based on one week of play. It's certainly not foolish to form an impression of his fielding, which is what you clarified you meant.

[Burg]

You can strongly disagree all you want. Everyone but you seems to recognize that you're wrong.

The basketball example you provided does way more to support my position than it does yours. The last-second "winning" shot doesn't mean anything without all of the other baskets that preceded it -- as you conceded.

In related news, water is wet and fire is hot.