BA's first mock draft

[rhall]

There are a few shockers in here

Zach Collier is going much earlier than I expected... before Aaron Hicks and at #13 overall.

They also mention Destin Hood as a possibility for the Brewers at #16. That seems too high, and probably why they didn't make him their official choice.

[tywright]

I just don't understand why scouts think we will target a pitcher with 1st pick over Smoak or Beckman.

[WebLink21]

I don't understand why every mock I have seen have the Pirates taking Alvarez. I know they have claimed that they will not let a Weiters type player slip due to money this year, but it is much easier said then done. They still have the same owner. I can see them being on the clock and have the chance to take Alvarez (with a 10 million dollar asking price and Boras as an agent) and someone like Beckham or Posey there (without Boras as an agent and close on their board) and them deciding to take the cheaper player. I know there fans were upset last year, but they will still be able to sell Beckham or Posey with the second pick.

[rhall]

I don't understand why every mock I have seen have the Pirates taking Alvarez. I know they have claimed that they will not let a Weiters type player slip due to money this year, but it is much easier said then done. They still have the same owner. I can see them being on the clock and have the chance to take Alvarez (with a 10 million dollar asking price and Boras as an agent) and someone like Beckham or Posey there (without Boras as an agent and close on their board) and them deciding to take the cheaper player. I know there fans were upset last year, but they will still be able to sell Beckham or Posey with the second pick.

If Beckham is available, yes I can definitely see them taking him over Alvarez (still not a sure thing though), but I'm not as sure about Posey. They need an impact bat because they have none. Posey is a top prospect because of his all-around game. Alvarez has the bat. The story on the Pirates is they are re-devoted to player development and will take the best player available. Your right that they do have the same owner and he could pull the same junk he has in the past, but until we know that for sure, I'm inclined to think that they mean what they say and will take the player that they need the most.

[rhall]

I just don't understand why scouts think we will target a pitcher with 1st pick over Smoak or Beckman.

It is odd. Everyone mentions the bats as possibilities and then predicts us taking Matusz.

[WebLink21]

I just don't understand why scouts think we will target a pitcher with 1st pick over Smoak or Beckman.

I agree with you. If I were the O's and the first 3 picks went Posey, Alvarez, Beckham (Tim, not Gordon because I wouldn't touch him inside the top 10) I would take Smoak and not think twice. I can see Smoak becoming a .270-.300 hitter with about 25-35 HR's per year and play a great first base. Plus he would likely be ready for the big club by 2011 IMO.

[laxtonto]

WOW...

And on a side note Hosmer to Texas...WOW again...

Im liking the draft if it falls out his way. :clap3:

[420gamewinners]

I agree with you. If I were the O's and the first 3 picks went Posey, Alvarez, Beckham (Tim, not Gordon because I wouldn't touch him inside the top 10) I would take Smoak and not think twice. I can see Smoak becoming a .270-.300 hitter with about 25-35 HR's per year and play a great first base. Plus he would likely be ready for the big club by 2011 IMO.

If the draft does fall that way. It should be one of Smoak or Matusz to the O's and if the O's can sign their pick early, he should be ready 2010.

[McNulty]

Wow, they agreed with 3 out of my 4 picks from the mock draft that we did here.

I guess I'm not as much of a dummy as I thought. Thanks for posting.

[bej6789]

I think there's a few reasons why scouts think that we'll target Matsuz over Beckham or Smoke:

1) Brandon Snyder, Billy Rowell, and dare I say it -- Mark Teixeira. Mcphail isn't going to block those prospects already without letting them prove themselves. If there's a position we need for hitting, it's 2B/SS -- not 1B/3B.

2) Gordon Beckham isn't worth the #4 pick, not when we're comparing him to the likes of Brian Matsuz. From what I've seen of him, minus the painful delivery... he's Tim Lincecum reloaded.

[WebLink21]

I think there's a few reasons why scouts think that we'll target Matsuz over Beckham or Smoke:

1) Brandon Snyder, Billy Rowell, and dare I say it -- Mark Teixeira. Mcphail isn't going to block those prospects already without letting them prove themselves. If there's a position we need for hitting, it's 2B/SS -- not 1B/3B.

2) Gordon Beckham isn't worth the #4 pick, not when we're comparing him to the likes of Brian Matsuz. From what I've seen of him, minus the painful delivery... he's Tim Lincecum reloaded.

Smoak....It is Justin Smoak!!

I wouldn't too worry about blocking those players if I was the O's. Rowell is just now starting to look like he has the health to be part of the future (alot of people were worried), Snyder worries me that he has what it takes and Teixeira isn't on the team. I think we will go after Tex too in the off season, but you never know what will happen. I don't think you pass on Smoak in anticipation of signing a player that could be on someone else's roster next year. That just isn't smart IMO.

[Pruke]

I think there's a few reasons why scouts think that we'll target Matsuz over Beckham or Smoke:

1) Brandon Snyder, Billy Rowell, and dare I say it -- Mark Teixeira. Mcphail isn't going to block those prospects already without letting them prove themselves. If there's a position we need for hitting, it's 2B/SS -- not 1B/3B.

2) Gordon Beckham isn't worth the #4 pick, not when we're comparing him to the likes of Brian Matsuz. From what I've seen of him, minus the painful delivery... he's Tim Lincecum reloaded.

You bring up an interesting point and a challenging question: Do you take the best player available...period...or do you consider the 'prospects' you have.

The shorter the timeframe from drafted to majors, the more taking a targeted position player makes sense. However, I would let Jordan do what he's proving he does best - draft talent...

Whether it's Matsuz, Smoak, Beckham 1 or 2, Alvarez, Posey, whoever - I'll be glad when they're in the fold and we're building out our minor league talent base. :clap3:

[bej6789]

Smoak....It is Justin Smoak!!

I wouldn't too worry about blocking those players if I was the O's. Rowell is just now starting to look like he has the health to be part of the future (alot of people were worried), Snyder worries me that he has what it takes and Teixeira isn't on the team. I think we will go after Tex too in the off season, but you never know what will happen. I don't think you pass on Smoak in anticipation of signing a player that could be on someone else's roster next year. That just isn't smart IMO.

Sorry about the spelling, first and foremost.

I'm not saying bank on Tex, I'm well aware that's borderline insane. As for the blocking of players, Rowell and Snyder are about 2 or 3 solid years away from making contributions at the major league level, but when you add Smoak in the mix he's probably only a year ahead. I agree with the fact that we need IF prospects... we have really no depth beyond the two previously mentioned. However, time and time again it's been proven that pitching wins ballgames and it's pitching that nets you the studs. Dan Haren, Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard (sound familiar)... While for the first time in a long time the Orioles finally have some depth, it needs to be put into perspective where that depth is. Arietta, Tillman and Spoone are all AA or below. Lord knows what happens in AAA, and if they can avoid that injury bug (knock on wood). The Orioles lacked quality depth at the upper levels of their farm system. We've already dipped into the well for Olson and Johnson, and the cupboard is about bare now with Penn and Liz holding down the fort for what seems like another two seasons. The Orioles need to develop as much young pitching as they can. There's a reason why for every Erik Bedard that hits the FA market, there's 10 Mark Tex's or Paul Konerko's. Pitching isn't easy to come by, and the only way you get studs is if you get lucky or you grow it yourself. Matsuz is right up that alley.

[ChaosLex]

1. I doubt Matusz gets past the Pirates. I heard they're HUGE on him.

2. Even if he does and we draft him, I'd love to be able to say we have Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz in our system. *drools*

[Leitch]

If the Pirates draft Matusz and that leads to us getting Alvarez, I will just straight up plotz