2016 #8 Prospect: Brian Gonzalez (LHP)

[Tony-OH]

Brian Gonzalez - LHP

6' 3" 230
Bats: L Throws: L
Age: 20
2016 Team: Delmarva
Most Likely Major League Role: 5th starter
Ceiling: #4 starter
Floor: Left-handed reliever

Background: Without a 1st or 2nd round pick in the 2014 draft, Gonzalez was nabbed in the 3rd round to become the Orioles top pick in the 2014 draft. A big wide body young man with little projection, scouts were mixed on whether his pro future was with the bat or on the mound. The Orioles though liked him on the mound and after signing him quickly for 700K, they sent him off to the Gulf Coast League to start his professional career. GCL batters though proved to be no match for Gonzalez has he didn't allowed an earned run in 24.2 innings over eight starts while striking out 25 and walking eight. He only allowed 11 hits and GCL batters hit just .134 off him. The Orioles challenged him by allowing him to finish out the year in the New York Penn League where he held his own in two starts against the much more mature competition. Promote to full season Delmarva at just 19-years old, the wheels came off in 2015 where he struggled to command his stuff. Held Sally League batters to a .249 average, but walked 59 and struck out just 81 in 105.1 inning to put up a 5.71 ERA.

 

2016: The Orioles returned Gonzalez to Delmarva and he was much better the second time through the league at 20-years old. Although his hits allowed per nine and K per 9 were basically the same as his 2015 season, he dropped his walks per nine down to 3.5. Improved greatly against left-handers holding them to a .193 AVG and allowing only one extra base hit all season.

 

2016 stats (Delmarva)
ERA: 2.50
IP: 147.2
H: 135 (8.2/9)
HRA: 0 (0.5/9)

BB: 7 (3.5/9)

SO: 25 (6.8/9)

AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS: .247/.325./349/.674

RHB Slash: .267/.341/.403/.744
LHB Slash: .193/.284/.207/.491

GO/AO: 1.30

Scouting report (now and future)

FB: 45/50

CB: 40/50

CH: 45/55

 

What we know: Gonzalez throws three pitches all of which can be average major league offerings at times. His fastball crept up a tick sitting in the 90-93 range with some occasional sink. Like all of his offerings, he can struggle at times to command the pitch and can go through stretches during games where he just struggles to command anything. His changeup is his best off-speed pitch and it will flash plus on occasion. Like his fastball he doesn't consistently command the pitch. His curveball remains a below average offering though he will flash an average one on occasion. One major league scout noted that his upper and lower halves get out of synch which causes his inconsistent command. Another AL scout felt he improved the most of any starter he'd seen in the system from 2015 to 2016, but also noted he has command issues.
 

What we don't know: Can he get control of his mechanics more often as he matures on the mound? If that happens, will he improves his command of his three pitches, all of which can flash major league average. Can he develop a put away pitch when he needs the strikeout?
 

What he needs to improve: Obviously he needs to improve his command of all three offerings. In addition he needs a go to pitch that he can miss some bats with.

Summary:  Scouts continue to be mixed on Gonzales with some seeing the potential for him to have three major league average pitches from the left side and thinking that could be enough to pitch at the back end of the rotation even without the plus command. Others have concerns with the mechanics and the lack of command and think he may end up a reliever or a long man.  Gonzalez learned a lot this season about being a professional and how to prepare himself between starts.  He made strides in 2016 which is exactly what you want to see from a young pitcher. He's prospect age appropriate going into 2017 where he should start the year at Frederick. If he can find consistently more times than not he should find success and continue to move up the chain. 

[sportsfan8703]

Good work.  I think it's great to see a HS pitcher be at this level in our system.  Hopefully Mcgregor can help with the mechanics in A+ and he can keep up the good results.  

[Frobby]

The thing I liked about Gonzalez this year was his consistency.   He failed to go at least five innings only three times, including his final start when I believe he was intentionally limited to three innings even though he was pitching well.   He only allowed more than 3 ER once all season.   He's not going to wow anyone, but strikes me as a guy who could throw 180+ innings to a 4-4.5 ERA as a major leaguer someday.  

[wildcard]

What this review tells me is that I am probably not going to like what Tony has to say about Mancini.  If Gonzo is that poor then Tony's view of Mancini must be worse.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What this review tells me is that I am probably not going to like what Tony has to say about Mancini.  If Gonzo is that poor then Tony's view of Mancini must be worse.

Obviously, Mancini is limited by the fact that he can only play 1B, and apparently is only a so-so defender there.    My guess is he's a .750-.800 OPS guy, which is decent but not that great for a guy who is mostly going to DH.    Still, I'd have ranked him higher than Tony will.   

[weams]

I like Gonzalez. And Mancini is definitely a DH if he remains an Oriole. 

[murph]

Brian is no longer an Oriole:

 

 

[Frobby]

Good luck to Brian.   I hope he finds success in Colorado.  

[wildcard]

On 11/12/2020 at 9:22 PM, Frobby said:

Good luck to Brian.   I hope he finds success in Colorado.  

Shame the O's had to lose him.  I thought he was making progress as a reliever.     Colorado is a tough place to pitch.  So is the PCL.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, wildcard said:

Shame the O's had to lose him.  I thought he was making progress as a reliever.     Colorado in a tough place to pitch.  So is the PCL.

The way I see it, everything’s relative.    If Gonzalez keeps his ERA at 5.50 or so in Albuquerque, he probably gets a shot at the majors.