How Many Stats Guru's Predicted That....

[ChaosLex]

But...but...you did...earlier in this thread, without qualification you called reliance on statistics a crap shoot.

Oops.

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[Old#5fan]

You're like 6 years older than me. Get over yourself. And believe me... I'm well aware of "what level of fan" i'm engaging with.

Well then how about you stop trying to talk down to me all the time if you expect a response? Its obvious you can't.

[Spoonless]

As a stand alone predictor (which is what I meant) yes. You cannot rely on stats to predict anything with 100% certainty. I have posted that many times. In fact predicting anything with certainty using any method is not 100%.

Where did anybody say that past stats always equal future performance? Well that's why they play the games. It's a prediction, not a statement of fact. I don't think anybody believes that they're predicting with 100% certainty. Otherwise, you'd just take the best team on paper and crown them World Series champs.

And if you meant using stats as a stand-alone predictor, perhaps you should have stated that several pages ago. You seem to have a problem presenting your arguments clearly.

[BRobinsonfan]

As a stand alone predictor (which is what I meant) yes. You cannot rely on stats to predict anything with 100% certainty. I have posted that many times. In fact predicting anything with certainty using any method is not 100%.

And where - pray tell - are any of us "stat gurus" saying that you can rely on past statistics 100% of the time to predict future performance??? None of us are saying that. Why can't you understand that?

[ScottieBaseball]

You are no doubt correct on this, but what do you want me to do about it? When you get to be my age you too will likely be a bit more "set in your ways." I simply stick to my guns. I am sorry if that offends anyone. I cannot help it. That is how I am built or my core personality. However, you wish to put it. I, like every other human being but one, have many flaws. One thing though I am not, and that is a phoney who is here trying to impress anyone. I am what I am. (Sounds a little like Popeye, which is what I watched as a kid on tv).:laughlol:

If you're not here to openly discuss things, be receptive to the ideas of others, and accept that some times there are people who know more than you about baseball and football and several other subjects regardless of their age or how they came to know what they know, then your experiences here will continue to be riddled with outrageous disbelief and initial well-intentioned attempts at enlightening you that grow into...outrageous disbelief.

I'm only glad that when I came here with similar arguments (and I did, OldFan...I was all "there are way more things that my eyes can tell me that stats can't") that folks with differing opinions recognized my open-mindedness and were persistent enough to help me see the validity in their position.

If you're admittedly "set in your ways", then I will refer those in the future who try to engage you in debate to this post as a reason to let it go. You're obviously a person more interested in hearing himself talk and reading the opinions of others whose mindset aligns perfectly with yours than you are in learning from the immeasurable wealth of Orioles, baseball, and sports intelligence our collective community has to offer.

It's sad, really, because I believe you're the kind of guy many of us would enjoy sitting at the bar with, drinking a few beers, and comparing "Greatest Ever" lists and sharing stories of sports experiences.

[Old#5fan]

Near the end of this thread, I learned from another poster who posted an excerpt quoting Luke Scott as stating his achilles tendon has been bothering him this season and effecting the push on his swing. Thus, he has probably not been able to hit as many homers as he normally would. This happens to coincide with my previously posted observation that I didn't think he was much of a home run hitter, and I was discounting his statistical history. I now realize that I indeed may well be quite wrong on this, and the only reason Scott has not been putting up more home runs has been his injury. I now want to publicly state that I was probably wrong about Luke Scott and his home run hitting ability. I am not changing any predictions or bets (as I don't welsh) but I want it known that I did learn something here on the OH that I didn't know before, and that an injury has possibly negatively effected Luke's homer out put this season.

I also want to make it known that I am receptive to learning from other posters here and not so set in my ways that I am unreceptive to other views. I also want it known that I am certainly not always right nor am I unwilling to admit it when I am indeed wrong about something. Thank you.

[byrdz]

Near the end of that thread, I learned from another poster who posted an excerpt quoting Luke Scott as stating his achilles tendon has been bothering him this season and effecting the push on his swing. Thus, he has probably not been able to hit as many homers as he normally would. This happens to coincide with my previously posted observation that I didn't think he was much of a home run hitter, and I was discounting his statistical history. I now realize that I indeed may well be quite wrong on this, and the only reason Scott has not been putting up more home runs has been his injury. I now want to publicly state that I was probably wrong about Luke Scott and his home run hitting ability. I am not changing any predictions or bets (as I don't welsh) but I want it known that I did learn something here on the OH that I didn't know before, and that an injury has possibly negatively effected Luke's homer out put this season.

I also want to make it known that I am receptive to learning from other posters here and not so set in my ways that I am unreceptive to other views. I also want it known that I am certainly not always right nor am I unwilling to admit it when I am indeed wrong about something. Thank you.

Well now I just feel like an ass.

Nice way to end the debate though. :beerchug1:

[RShack]

Well now I just feel like an ass.

Nice way to end the debate though. :beerchug1:

<img src=http://warbirds-online.org/images/noseart-b29-PeaceOnEarth.jpg></img>

[tywright]

Hmmm I guess since Luke only had 2 HRs, that should have raised a red flag that he may have been limited by an injury. Then again a red flag would only be raised by stat-guys who were taking into consideration Scott's track record. That track record would show Scott's ability to hit a HR every 24 PA the past 2 seasons and that 16% of his FBs turned into HRs. This year he's hit 2 HR in 137 PA (1 every 68.5 PA) and 8.3% of FBs have been HRs.

Ironic that the non-stats guy is the one who brought up the issue with Scott's lack of HRs. :scratchchinhmm:

[El Gordo]

Question: How many stat guys can you fit on the head of a pin? Answer: As many as can stand on their heads.:laughlol::smile11::rofl:

[Old#5fan]

Hmmm I guess since Luke only had 2 HRs, that should have raised a red flag that he may have been limited by an injury. Then again a red flag would only be raised by stat-guys who were taking into consideration Scott's track record. That track record would show Scott's ability to hit a HR every 24 PA the past 2 seasons and that 16% of his FBs turned into HRs. This year he's hit 2 HR in 137 PA (1 every 68.5 PA) and 8.3% of FBs have been HRs.

Ironic that the non-stats guy is the one who brought up the issue with Scott's lack of HRs. :scratchchinhmm:

Actually, I got it from a stats guy (Crazysilver03) (at least I think he is ) on this thread. It didn't come from me first.

[Boy Howdy]

After reading this thread, I've decided to change my screen name to...

STAT GURU

[mefogus]

Question: How many stat guys can you fit on the head of a pin? Answer: As many as can stand on their heads.:laughlol::smile11::rofl:

How many stat-gurus does it take to watch a baseball game?

Answer:

Zero. They don't watch games.

-m

:wedge:

[Old#5fan]

How many stat-gurus does it take to watch a baseball game?

Answer:

Zero. They don't watch games.

-m

:wedge:

Ha, Ha, Ha. That was funny. I shouldn't say so but it was.:laughlol:

[tywright]

Actually, I got it from a stats guy (Crazysilver03) (at least I think he is ) on this thread. It didn't come from me first.

I wasn't talking about who brought up the injury... I was referring to you originally commenting that Scott HRs were down because he wasn't a HR guy.

Nobody actually provided the injury excuse for Scott until Crazy Silver linked the article saying Scott had the achilles problem. Which is surprising since it's obvious now that the injury has kept his power down.